Abstract: Tumen River Area, an eastern triangle-border area of Jilin Province adjacent to Russia and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, is abundant in natural resources and has locational advantages in its development, where is an economically and politically sensitive area to China who hopes an peace development. As China's government has decided to develop this area as a part of strategic development for Northeast China, a sound and stable development would become especially important domestically. Based on the previous studies, this study focused on the issue of the sustainable development in this area, useing calculation method of regional carrying capacity and setting up an evaluation indicator system of regional capacity in this area. In terms of vertical and horizontal analysis according to statistical data from 2000 to 2008, a new predictive model has been set up for understanding the regional carrying capacity of this area, especially for the prediction of further dynamic variation of this area. The results showed that the regiona carryingl capacity of Tumen River Area in the period of 2000-2008 has not been overloaded, lower than the other areas of Jilin Province and the average of the whole country. Meanwhile, there are relatively large differences in regional carrying capacity within 8 cities and counties of this area, and it is predictable that the regional carrying capacity of this area would overload after 2020. This would be the important influencing factor for potential unsustainable development of this area.