关键词: 政策检验, 土地利用-交通相互作用模型, 模型模拟, 城市空间, 城市规划, 城市活动

Abstract:

China is experiencing the rapid transformation of urbanization, with mass population migration floating from rural provincial areas to large cities, which brings huge challenge for the authority to foster sustainable urban development. While right spatial policies always play important roles in urban development, powerful tools are needed to validate the empirical policies by modelling the urban spatial evolution process. Land-use/Transport Interaction Model (LUTI) has been used frequently in urban policy-making and scenario testing in developed countries. LUTI model are often used to answer questions like “what impacts on urban space could a certain amount of floorspace development in a certain zone bring? How would urban activity spatial pattern change if a highway be developed?” i.e. “what-if” questions. It has been proved especially useful in modelling urban spatial development process and developing sustainable policies. Notwithstanding the usefulness, the LUTI model deals with cities only thrills in developed countries, with rare application to rapidly growing cities of developing countries, especially China and related applications are also lacking. This article introduces the concept and origin of LUTI, reviews various LUTI models, model components and simulation techniques, and discusses the model strengths, weaknesses, challenges and development trends. According to LUTI theory, urban space is composed of two main parts, i.e. land use and transport. Urban development process is the interaction between urban land use and transport. The activity distribution (land use) along with land use policies and transport determine the accessibility of each zone and then the location of activities. A change in activity distribution causes the change of activity density or rent, and then accessibilities of zones are rebalanced. The process is repeated until the stopping criterion is met—the activity distribution difference between two successive iterations is below a predefined value.Based on the review and discussion, the article explores what contribution the model can make and how the model can be adjusted in China toward an urban policy modelling tool for decision makers. The challenges faced to develop the model theoretically are also discussed. The study is intended to extend the usage of LUTI models and promote the development in the discipline of Human Geography in China.

Key words: policy experiment, LUTI, model simulation, urban space, urban planning, activity