中国人口收缩的城乡分异特征及形成机理

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.07.002

地理科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7): 1116-1128.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.07.002

中国人口收缩的城乡分异特征及形成机理

刘振¹(), 戚伟¹, 刘盛和¹^,²^,^*()

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049

收稿日期:2020-10-25 修回日期:2021-02-11 出版日期:2021-07-31 发布日期:2021-09-06
通讯作者: 刘盛和 E-mail:lzhgeog@sina.cn;liush@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:刘振（1990-），男，山东滨州人，博士，主要从事城市地理和人口地理研究。E-mail: lzhgeog@sina.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42001166);国家自然科学基金项目(41771180);中国博士后科学基金项目(2019M660776)

The Differences of Urban-rural Population Change and the Underlying Mechanism in the Populaaation Shrinking Counties in China

Liu Zhen¹(), Qi Wei¹, Liu Shenghe¹^,²^,^*()

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2020-10-25 Revised:2021-02-11 Online:2021-07-31 Published:2021-09-06
Contact: Liu Shenghe E-mail:lzhgeog@sina.cn;liush@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42001166);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771180);China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019M660776)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在县市尺度上对2000—2010年人口收缩区的城乡分异特征进行分析，划分出城增乡减型、城乡双收缩型和城减乡增型等类型，并建立人口收缩城乡分异的理论分析框架，探讨了不同类型的形成机理，主要的发现如下：① 2000—2010年，人口收缩单元占比约为38.6%，城增乡减型单元占据绝对主体，达到34.5%，而“城乡双收缩型”和“城减乡增型”单元占比均较低。② 中部地区人口收缩区城镇人口增长普遍较快，东北地区城乡双收缩的特征较为突出，而东部和西部地区存在较明显的空间分异。③ 城镇化水平和经济发展水平对人口收缩城乡分异特征的影响最为显著，城镇化水平较高而经济发展水平较低的人口收缩区越可能出现城镇人口增长缓慢甚至城乡双收缩。④ 经济发展速度、人口自然增长水平、公共服务等因素对人口收缩城乡分异特征也存在一定的影响。

关键词: 人口收缩, 人口迁移, 城镇化, 城乡分异, 中国

Abstract:

In recent years, the continuous decline of the total population at the regional scale has become increasingly obvious. Considering that most regions have still been experiencing the rapid urbanization processes, it is necessary to analyze the differences of urban and rural population changes and its underlying driving forces in the population shrinking areas. Based on the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this article has analyzed the difference characteristics of urban-rural population change in the population shrinking counties by identifying several urban-rural differentiation types, and then we have established a theoretical framework to investigate the underlying drivers. The main findings are as follows: 1) 38.6% of the research samples have experienced population shrinkage in the period from 2000 to 2010, but most of them have been characterized by “urban population increasing and rural population declining” (or “urban growth and rural decline” for short), and these units account for 89.5% of all the shrinking samples, and the proportion of urban-rural population both shrinking type (or “urban and rural both decline” for short) has a relatively low percentage. 2) In the central region, the type of “urban growth and rural decline A”, which means a high urban growth rate, occupies the main part, and Northeast China has a high percentage of the type of “urban and rural both decline”, and there are obvious spatial differentiations in the eastern and western China. 3) The factors of urbanization level and economic development level have the most significant impacts on the differentiation of urban-rural population change among the population shrinking areas: the population shrinking areas with higher urbanization level and lower economic development level will be more likely to experience slow urban population growth and even urban population decline. 4) The growth rate of economic development, the level of natural population growth, and the quality of public services also have certain impacts on the differentiation of urban-rural population change among the population shrinking areas. Based on these findings, we argue that the perspective of urban-rural differentiation can deepen understanding of population shrinkage in China, and it can also contribute to the relevant theories of population shrinkage in a developing context.

Key words: population shrinking, population migration, urbanization, urban-rural differentiation, China

中图分类号:

K901.3

刘振, 戚伟, 刘盛和. 中国人口收缩的城乡分异特征及形成机理[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(7): 1116-1128.

Liu Zhen, Qi Wei, Liu Shenghe. The Differences of Urban-rural Population Change and the Underlying Mechanism in the Populaaation Shrinking Counties in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(7): 1116-1128.

图/表 8

表1

图1

图2

表2

表3

表4

四大经济区县市人口收缩城乡分异类型影响因素的回归分析结果

指标变量	东部地区			中部地区			西部地区			东北地区
指标变量	城增乡减A型	城增乡减B型	城乡双收缩型	城增乡减A型	城增乡减B型	城乡双收缩型	城增乡减A型	城增乡减B型	城乡双收缩型	城增乡减A型	城增乡减B型	城乡双收缩型
注：^*和^分别表示在1%和5%的显著水平下显著；根据2011年国家统计局发布的划分方法（http://www.stats.gov.cn/ ztjc/zthd/sjtjr/dejtjkfr/tjkp/201106/t20110613_71947.htm）及《东北振兴规划》，网址http://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2007-08/20/content_721632.htm）进行中东西及东北地区区域划分；由于城减乡增型单元的数量较少，可能影响回归结果的可靠性，因此在分四大区域分析中未包括该类型；变量含义见表2；未包含港澳台地区数据。
P_GDP	-2.43^***	-2.20^***	-0.89	-0.50	-1.88^**	-7.73^**	-2.76^***	-3.42^***	-2.17	-1.31	-0.17	-0.24
R_GDP	-0.31	-0.79^**	-1.54	-1.01^***	-1.05^***	-4.34^***	-1.31^***	-1.11^***	-1.57^***	8.05	2.59	-1.63
E	-1.01^**	-0.57	-0.04	-1.41^***	-0.96^**	-3.48^***	0.22	0.01	-0.98^**	-0.57	-1.84^**	-1.85
T	0.35	1.35^***	2.45^***	-0.41	-0.42	-1.59	-0.61^***	-0.63^***	-1.51^***	1.92^**	0.83	1.22^**
N	-0.49^***	-0.45^***	-0.30^**	-0.41^***	-0.48^***	-0.90^***	-0.27^***	-0.22^***	-0.19^***	-0.34^***	-0.56^***	-0.71^***
UR	-4.94^***	6.15^***	7.91^**	-11.88^***	5.86^***	27.18^***	-15.94^***	2.41^**	7.80^***	-2.17^***	0.31	2.78
AD₁	-0.82	-0.03	0.01	0.44	0.62	-0.08	-1.01	-0.91	-0.01	0.62	-0.96^**	-0.33
AD₂	-1.65	-1.94	-2.17	-1.51	-2.08^***	-1.85	-0.06	-2.21^***	-1.83	-11.07	-3.03^**	-1.82
常数	11.49^***	5.27^**	-3.76	15.99^***	11.44^***	30.30^***	5.44^***	4.67^***	8.84^***	6.83	14.78^**	13.67^**
Log likelihood	-404.74			-392.68			-666.88			-202.97
chi²	219.13			349.14			518.27			187.78
Prob>chi²	0.00			0.00			0.00			0.00
样本数	564			556			886			208

表4

图3

图4

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	全国		东部地区		中部地区		西部地区		东北地区
	数量/个	比例/%	数量/个	比例/%	数量/个	比例/%	数量/个	比例/%	数量/个	比例/%
注：未包含港澳台数据。
人口收缩区	867	38.6	172	30.3	225	40.2	383	42.7	87	39.0
城增乡减型	776	34.5	157	27.7	212	37.9	352	39.3	55	24.7
城增乡减A型	413	18.4	72	12.7	145	25.9	187	20.9	9	4.0
城增乡减B型	363	16.1	85	15.0	67	12.0	165	18.4	46	20.6
城乡双收缩型	59	2.6	12	2.1	9	1.6	21	2.3	17	7.6
城减乡增型	32	1.4	3	0.5	4	0.7	10	1.1	15	6.7
人口增长区	1382	61.4	395	69.7	335	59.8	513	57.3	136	61.0
总计	2249	100	567	100	560	100	896	100	223	100

影响因素	指标	指标简称	说明
注：行政等级中县域单元作为参照组。
经济发展水平	人均GDP	P_GDP	人均国内生产总值
经济增长速度	GDP增长率	R_GDP	GDP期末值相比期初值的增长变化率
公共服务	平均受教育年限	E	按照现行学制为受教育年数计算的6岁以上人口平均受教育年限
自然因素	地形起伏度	T	根据1 km×1 km DEM数据计算各区域的平均地形起伏度
行政等级	区域的行政等级	AD₁	该区域行政等级为县级市
行政等级	区域的行政等级	AD₂	该区域行政等级为市辖区
城镇化水平	城镇化率	UR	采用常住人口城镇化率
人口自然增长	人口自然增长率	N	年自然增长人口与年平均人口的比值

指标变量	城增乡减A型	城增乡减B型	城乡双收缩型	城减乡增型
注：^*和^分别表示在1%和5%的显著水平下显著；未包含港澳台地区数据；Log likelihood=-1910.44，chi²=946.92，Prob>chi²全部为0.00，样本数为2249；变量含义见表2。
P_GDP	-2.33^***	-1.90^***	-2.02^***	-2.82^***
R_GDP	-0.43^***	-0.72^***	-1.22^***	-1.47^***
E	-0.15^**	-0.27^**	-0.53	-0.65
T	-0.41^***	-0.24^**	-0.43^**	-0.41
N	-0.32^***	-0.30^***	-0.30^***	-0.33^***
AD₁	-10.81^***	2.43^***	6.52^***	10.61^***
AD₂	-0.01	-0.20	0.11	1.07^**
UR	-1.04^**	-2.50^***	-3.43^***	-3.26^***
常数	6.17^***	4.45^***	4.23^**	2.91

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中国人口收缩的城乡分异特征及形成机理

The Differences of Urban-rural Population Change and the Underlying Mechanism in the Populaaation Shrinking Counties in China

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