广东省农村居民生计恢复力测度及影响因素分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.06.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从生计质量、生计促进、生计供给及灾害压力4个维度构建气象灾害影响下农村居民生计恢复力评估模型，运用结构动力学方法测度广东省农村居民生计恢复力水平，并识别生计恢复力的主要影响因素。结果表明：① 广东省农村居民生计恢复力水平呈现周期性变化，与生计质量、生计促进、生计供给之间存在显著正相关，与灾害压力存在较强的负相关，重大气象灾害对农村居民生计恢复力的影响作用仍然较为显著；② 人均地区生产总值、农村人均消费水平、人均教育支出、千人卫生技术人员、节水灌溉面积和水土流失综合治理面积对生计恢复力均具有正向促进作用，其中水土流失综合治理面积和节水灌溉面积影响最为显著；③ 政府宜优先从生计保障、生计促进以及抗灾应对3个维度，优化广东省农村居民生计水平，并且着重提升抗灾应对能力。既要注重临时性救助扶持措施，也要注重农村地区长期实力提升，从整体上提升农村居民应对灾害风险的能力，增强广东省农村居民的生计恢复力。

关键词: 生计恢复力, 气象灾害, 结构动力学, 农村居民生计

Abstract:

In the context of frequent natural disasters and increasing social public events, the livelihood resilience of rural residents faces many uncertainties. Therefore, using scientific methods to evaluate the livelihood resilience of rural residents and propose livelihood resilience improvement strategies have become important issues to improve the livelihood resilience of rural residents and promote rural development. Considering the impact of meteorological disasters on the livelihood of rural residents, a resilience assessment model was constructed from four dimensions of livelihood quality, livelihood promotion, livelihood provision, and disaster pressure. Then, using structural dynamics method to measure the livelihood resilience index (LR) of rural residents in Guangdong Province. Finally, considering the local economy, education and disaster resistance conditions, the main influencing factors affecting LR were determined. Based on this, the study put forward the strategies to improve the livelihood resilience of rural residents. This study found that: 1) The level of livelihood resilience of rural residents in Guangdong Province changes periodically. It has a significant positive correlation with livelihood quality, livelihood promotion and livelihood provision, while has a strong negative correlation with disaster pressure. Besides, the impact of major natural meteorological disasters is still significant; 2) The results of ridge regression analysis show that per capita GDP (X1), per capita consumption level in rural areas (X2), per capita education expenditure (X3), number of health technicians per thousand population (X4), water-saving irrigation area (X5) and comprehensive control area of soil and water loss (X6) all have positive effects on livelihood resilience, among which water-saving irrigation area (X5) and comprehensive control area of soil and water loss (X6) have the most significant effects; 3) The government should optimize the livelihood level of rural residents in Guangdong Province from 3 aspects of livelihood security, livelihood promotion and disaster response, and focus on improving disaster response capacity. We should not only pay attention to temporary relief and support measures, but also attach importance to long-term strength improvement measures, so as to improve the overall ability to cope with disaster risks and finally enhance the livelihood resilience of rural residents in Guangdong Province.

Key words: livelihood resilience, meteorological disasters, structural dynamics method, rural resident livelihood

中图分类号:

P963

苏飞, 朱晓倩, 刘江玉, 童磊, 郑珂, 傅嘉艺. 广东省农村居民生计恢复力测度及影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2022, 42(6): 1015-1023.

Su Fei, Zhu Xiaoqian, Liu Jiangyu, Tong Lei, Zheng Ke, Fu Jiayi. Measurement and Influencing Factors of Livelihood Resilience of Rural Residents in Guangdong Province[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2022, 42(6): 1015-1023.

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结构维度	指标	指标单位及性质	对应矩阵	内涵
注：“+”表示正向指标，“−”表示负向指标。
生计质量（+）	恩格尔系数	%（−）	质量矩阵	表明农村居民的生活状态和福祉水平，强调生活质量和发展水平
	农村居民人均可支配收入	元（+）
	农村居民人均教育文化娱乐消费支出	元/人（+）
	农村居民人均医疗消费支出	元/人（+）
	千人医疗卫生机构床位	张/千人（+）
生计促进（+）	地方政府人均收支比	无单位（−）	阻尼矩阵	灾害压力下恢复生计的潜力，强调在政府和家庭的影响下维持生计的能力
	农村人均固定资产投资额	万元/人（+）
	农村人均最低生活保障支出	万元/人（+）
	科研和技术开发经费支出总额	万元（+）
	自然灾害社会救助额	万元（+）
生计供给（+）	农村居民第一产业从业人数	人（+）	刚度矩阵	指基本的生活需求，包括食物、健康和营养状况，是生计不安全的直接特征
	人均耕地面积	hm²/人（+）
	主要农业机械总动力	万kW（+）
	人均住房建筑面积	m²/人（+）
	水库数	座（+）
灾害压力（−）	暴雨洪涝受灾面积	10³hm²（+）	压力矩阵	显示农村居民经历过的灾害压力
	干旱受灾面积	10³hm²（+）
	台风灾害受灾面积	10³hm²（+）

	影响因素	非标准化系数		标准化系数	t值	P
	影响因素	B	标准误	Beta	t值	P
注：R²为0.681，调整后的R²为0.521，F (6,12)=4.261，P=0.016；^，^*分别表示P<0.05，P<0.01；−为无此项。
常数		−0.058	0.057	−	−1.027	0.325
经济水平	人均地区生产总值 /元 (X1)	0.052	0.024	0.069	2.189	0.049^*
经济水平	农村人均消费水平 /元 (X2)	0.090	0.026	0.121	3.519	0.004^**
科教水平	人均教育支出 /元 (X3)	0.063	0.024	0.088	2.607	0.023^*
科教水平	千人卫生技术人员数 /(人/千人) （X4）	0.071	0.031	0.093	2.315	0.039^*
抗灾水平	节水灌溉面积 /10³hm² (X5)	0.125	0.033	0.132	3.809	0.002^**
抗灾水平	水土流失综合治理面积 /10³hm² (X6)	0.201	0.05	0.217	4.031	0.002^**