地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 47-54.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.01.006

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于集对分析的中国海洋经济系统脆弱性研究

李博1(), 杨智1, 苏飞2, 孙才志1, 许妍3, 郭建科1, 王泽宇1   

  1. 1.辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁 大连116029
    2.浙江工商大学旅游与城市管理学院,浙江 杭州310018
    3. 国家海洋环境监测中心,辽宁 大连 116023
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-12 修回日期:2015-01-10 出版日期:2016-01-20 发布日期:2016-01-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:李博(1983-),女,吉林长春人,副教授,博士,主要从事区域发展和海洋经济地理研究。E-mail: libo_ok@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41201114、41301079、41401176、41201160),2015年辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学重点研究基地专项项目(ZJ2015033),省社科联2016年度辽宁经济社会发展立项课题(2016lslktzdian-20),浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(16NDJC185YB)资助

Vulnerability Measurement of Chinese Marine Economic System Based on Set Pair Analysis

Bo Li1(), Zhi Yang1, Fei Su2, Caizhi Sun1, Yan Xu3, Jianke Guo1, Zeyu Wang1   

  1. 1. Study Center of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
    2.School of Tourism and City Administration, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China
    3. National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2014-11-12 Revised:2015-01-10 Online:2016-01-20 Published:2016-01-20
  • Supported by:
    National Nature Science Foundation of China (41201114, 41301079, 41401176, 41201160), Key Research Base Projects of Humanities and Social Science in Liaoning Province in 2015 (ZJ2015033), Economic and Social Development Planning Project of Liaoning Province in 2016 (2016lslktzdian-20), Philosophy Social Sciences Planning Project of Zhejiang Province (16NDJC185YB)

摘要:

从海洋经济脆弱性内涵出发,构建敏感性和应对性指标,运用主、客观相结合的组合赋权法确定指标权重,并结合集对分析法,分析1996~2012年中国海洋经济系统脆弱性的演变趋势及影响因素。结果表明:中国海洋经济系统对不利扰动的敏感性呈下降趋势,对内、外冲击的应对能力表现出增强趋势,脆弱性不断下降; 运用回归分析法分析海洋经济系统敏感性、应对能力与脆弱性之间的关系,得出应对性的强弱对脆弱性的影响居于主导地位;提出相应的降低海洋经济脆弱性的对策,包括充分合理利用海洋资源,改变经济增长方式;加强陆海统筹,优化产业结构;推进科学技术创新和人才培养;加强海洋环境保护和污染治理等。

关键词: 海洋经济系统, 脆弱性, 集对分析

Abstract:

Vulnerability assessment is an important method to reveal the economic development "bottleneck" factors, and has great significance to analyze the major restricted factors to achieve economic development. Based on a detailed description about the vulnerability of marine economic system (MESV), the article establishes a vulnerability assessment model of marine economic system in China from the aspects of sensitivity and response capacity. Then it combines the methods of set pair analysis and vulnerability assessment, and uses combination weight method to evaluate the indicators and to calculate their weights, then analyzes the evolution trends and major influencing factors of vulnerability in marine economic system from 1996 to 2012. At last, it puts forward corresponding development countermeasures. The results indicate that the vulnerability in marine economic system of China during the past 17 years, shows a declining trend, and the sensitivity to adverse disturbance takes on a declining trend and response capacity sometimes presents a wandering period, sometimes in a growth phase for internal and external shocks. The MESV has two characteristics: 1) the MESV declined rapidly in 1996-2001, 2005-2006, and 2008-2010; 2) the MESV showed little change, more stable in 2001-2005, 2006-2008, and 2010-2012. The evolution of sensitivity can be divided into two stages: decreased obviously form 1996 to 2002, fluctuating frequented from 2002 to 2012. The evolution of response capacity fluctuated slightly in 1996-2002 and 2008-2012, and then went up steadily from 2002 to 2012. The influence of sensitivity plays a leading role to the vulnerability in marine economic system of China among the sensitivity, response capacity and vulnerability by using regression analysis. It suggests that in improving response capacity and reducing the vulnerability in marine economic system of China, the style of economic growth should be changed, including controlling over-exploitation and rational utilization of marine resources, developing science and technology and cultivation of talents. At the same time, it is also important to strengthen marine of pollution and to control environmental protection measures.

Key words: marine economic system, vulnerability, set pair analysis

中图分类号: 

  • K902