工业化、城镇化和农业现代化相互影响,三者相互促进、相辅相成,有着内在的逻辑关系。通过建立吉林省工业化、城镇化和农业现代化评价指标体系,基于1991~2009年时间序列数据利用因子分析法计算了吉林省工业化、城镇化和农业现代化的发展指数,三条发展指数曲线相互交错,趋势基本相同,尤其是工业化和城镇化水平都在不断进步。但从三者对比来看,三化之间不同步现象明显,出现脱节现象。进而对其进行多变量协整检验,结果表明：“三化” 在时间上并非同步而生,工业化的进步会滞后一期引起城镇化水平和农业现代化水平提高,工业化对“三化”的拉动作用在短期内立即体现,长期内需要工业化水平的不断提高才能为“三化”的进步提供源源不断的动力。农业现代化水平的提高也会促进城镇化水平提高,但是需要滞后三期才会体现。据此提出“三化”统筹的基本思路是“用农业化范式发展工业化”,“用工业化范式发展农业现代化”,“用工农业融合集聚发展城镇化”。

Industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization have the inner logical relationship and influence each other. The orchestrating of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization is not only the regional coordination of urban and rural areas, but also the industrial coordination of agriculture and industry. This article sets up the index system to evaluate the industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Jilin Province. Based on the time series data of Jilin Province in 1991-2009, the factor analysis method is empoyed to calculate the evaluation indexes. The result shows that the three lines of evaluation indexes interlace with each other but the trends are nearly the same, and especially the unceasing progress trends of industrialization and urbanization are obvious. From the point of view of contrast, the phenomenon of asynchrony is obvious. This article further makes the multivariate cointegration test for the evaluation indexes. The results examine that the industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization do not start synchronously, and industrialization could promote urbanization and agricultural modernization with one year lagged. It means that the industrialization could pull the urbanization and agricultural modernization in the short term. In another word, it is necessary to get the steady promotion of industrialization in the long term, and only the continuous improvement can provide an uninterrupted power to pull the urbanization and agricultural modernization. The improvement of agricultural modernization could also pull the urbanization, but the influence would be revealed three years later, which means that the agricultural modernization could pull the urbanization in the long term and it is different to the cycle of action of industrialization to urbanization. This article gives the explanation that the promotion of industrialization level could drive the development of industrial zone immediately and then cause the gathering of human capital, capital and material resources, and promote the level of urbanization. The promotion of agricultural modernization level could drive the transfer of surplus labor, and gradually expand the demand scale of agricultural production materials, promot the level of urbanization in the long term. Finally, this article puts forward the development thought of orchestrating of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Jilin Province. We should use the agricultural paradigm to improve the level of industrialization, use the integration industrial paradigm to improve the level of agricultural modernization, and use the paradigm of agglomeration and integration between industry and agriculture to improve the level of urbanization.