水库调节地区东江流域非一致性水文极值演变特征、成因及影响
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叶长青, 陈晓宏, 张家鸣, 张丽娟, 孔兰
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Changing Properties, Causes and Impacts of Non-stationary Extreme Stream Flow Under the Changing Environment of Hydraulic Engineering Regulated Basin in Dongjiang River, China
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Chang-qing YE, Xiao-hong CHEN, Jia-ming ZHANG, Li-juan ZHANG, Lan KONG
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| 表5 东江年最大流量8种概率分布的拟合检验值 |
| Table 5 Fitting test value of 8 probability distributions for flood frequency analysis in Dongjiang River |
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| 水文站 | 拟合检验 | PT3 | GLO | GEV | Weibull | GUM | LN3 | LN2 | LP3 | 龙川
(1954~2009年) | AIC | 922.91 | 921.16 | 931.93 | 923.68 | 929.84 | 921.38 | 919.78 | 925.66 | | BIC | 928.99 | 927.24 | 938.01 | 929.75 | 933.90 | 927.45 | 923.84 | 931.73 | | AICc | 923.37 | 921.62 | 932.39 | 924.14 | 930.07 | 921.84 | 920.01 | 926.12 | 龙川
(1975~2009年) | AIC | 557.39 | 548.83 | 548.91 | 549.21 | 548.18 | 548.85 | 546.87 | 548.85 | | BIC | 562.06 | 553.49 | 553.57 | 553.87 | 551.29 | 553.52 | 549.98 | 553.52 | | AICc | 558.17 | 549.60 | 549.68 | 549.98 | 548.55 | 549.62 | 547.24 | 549.62 | 河源
(1951~2010年) | AIC | 1046.99 | 1038.33 | 1040.67 | 1036.11 | 1038.64 | 1037.52 | 1035.63 | 1037.33 | | BIC | 1053.28 | 1044.62 | 1046.95 | 1042.40 | 1042.83 | 1043.81 | 1039.82 | 1043.61 | | AICc | 1047.42 | 1038.76 | 1041.09 | 1036.54 | 1038.85 | 1037.95 | 1035.84 | 1037.76 | 河源
(1964~2010年) | AIC | 803.21 | 791.43 | 792.32 | 794.23 | 792.72 | 792.80 | 790.85 | 792.85 | | BIC | 808.76 | 796.98 | 797.87 | 799.78 | 796.42 | 798.35 | 794.55 | 798.40 | | AICc | 803.77 | 791.98 | 792.88 | 794.79 | 792.99 | 793.35 | 791.13 | 793.41 |
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