基于ARMA模型的沈阳经济区经济与环境协调发展研究
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韩瑞玲, 佟连军, 朱绍华, 路紫
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The Coordinated Development of Economy and Environment Based on ARMA Model in Shenyang Economic Zone
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Rui-ling HAN, Lian-jun TONG, Shao-hua ZHU, Zi LU
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表2 各经济指标的定阶与预测值 |
Table 2 Order determination and predictive value of each economic indicators |
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| p | q | 2010年 | 2011年 | 2012年 | 2013年 | 2014年 | 2015年 | ilX1 | 1 | 2 | 43 372.12 | 47 381.78 | 51 550.55 | 55 867.45 | 60 320.72 | 64 898.00 | ilX2 | 3 | 2 | 3 866.98 | 4 697.75 | 5 714.47 | 6 969.41 | 8 352.02 | 1 0025.43 | ilX3 | 2 | 3 | 37 415.58 | 45 150.07 | 52 377.99 | 58 282.18 | 62 810.02 | 66 161.78 | ilX4 | 1 | 1 | 15 614.08 | 16 303.77 | 16 722.69 | 16 973.57 | 17 122.57 | 17 210.64 | ilX5 | 3 | 2 | 542.47 | 488.78 | 541.91 | 542.47 | 527.94 | 530.91 | ilX6 | 2 | 2 | 379.05 | 392.88 | 406.45 | 413.97 | 419.58 | 423.07 | ilX7 | 1 | 1 | 95 720.47 | 103 143.50 | 110 389.63 | 117 417.41 | 124 193.39 | 130 691.70 | ilX8 | 1 | 1 | 39 312.84 | 43 050.90 | 47 099.88 | 51 481.51 | 56 218.72 | 61 335.65 | ilX9 | 2 | 2 | 13.35 | 11.90 | 10.01 | 9.53 | 9.99 | 10.47 | ilX10 | 3 | 3 | 20.73 | 9.01 | 3.12 | 4.97 | 2.27 | 2.50 | ilX11 | 1 | 1 | 29.10 | 27.67 | 28.90 | 28.20 | 28.73 | 28.40 | ilX12 | 1 | 1 | 17.40 | 17.68 | 17.58 | 17.61 | 17.60 | 17.61 | ilX13 | 2 | 3 | 13.72 | 29.94 | 3.91 | -1.52 | -1.04 | -0.27 | ilX14 | 2 | 1 | 9.80 | 10.31 | 10.32 | 10.27 | 10.27 | 10.27 | ilX15 | 1 | 1 | 11.35 | 10.66 | 10.01 | 9.40 | 8.83 | 8.29 | ilX16 | 2 | 3 | 2.82 | 2.93 | 3.00 | 3.06 | 3.11 | 3.16 | ilX17 | 1 | 1 | 53.58 | 53.57 | 53.58 | 53.57 | 53.58 | 53.57 | ilX18 | 2 | 2 | 41.00 | 40.84 | 40.58 | 40.63 | 40.73 | 40.72 | ilX19 | 3 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | ilX20 | 1 | 1 | 70.08 | 69.96 | 69.84 | 69.71 | 69.59 | 69.47 | ilX21 | 3 | 4 | 37.63 | 39.15 | 39.69 | 39.39 | 39.37 | 39.45 | ilX22 | 1 | 1 | 36.41 | 35.44 | 34.49 | 33.57 | 32.66 | 31.79 | ilX23 | 1 | 2 | 20 641.56 | 20 251.48 | 19 970.93 | 19 768.27 | 19 621.38 | 19 514.68 | ilX24 | 1 | 1 | 2 361.55 | 2 359.97 | 2 358.70 | 2 357.67 | 2 356.83 | 2 356.16 | ilX25 | 0 | 0 | 3.77 | 3.21 | 3.00 | 2.62 | 2.40 | 2.12 | ilX26 | 2 | 1 | 10 423.38 | 10 999.31 | 11 451.48 | 11 804.54 | 12 078.96 | 12 291.47 | ilX27 | 1 | 2 | 1 367 352.91 | 1 159 154.11 | 912 547.25 | 645 384.32 | 390 814.62 | 189 019.18 | ilX28 | 2 | 2 | 908 728.95 | 957 035.54 | 1 000 696.39 | 1 029 199.47 | 1 050 471.82 | 1 065 156.12 | ilX29 | 1 | 1 | 30.54 | 30.78 | 31.01 | 31.25 | 31.49 | 31.73 | ilX30 | 1 | 1 | 27.98 | 27.40 | 26.85 | 26.33 | 25.84 | 25.38 | ilX31 | 1 | 1 | 42.73 | 42.93 | 43.10 | 43.25 | 43.39 | 43.50 |
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