气候变化对中国古代财政平衡的影响
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魏柱灯, 方修琦, 苏筠
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Climatic Impacts on the Fiscal Balance in Ancient China
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Zhu-deng WEI, Xiu-qi FANG, Yun SU
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| 表 3 秦朝至清末（220 BC~1910 AD）中国财政平衡波动的阶段划分 |
| Table 3 Stages of fiscal fluctuation during 220 BC-1910 AD |
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| 阶 段 | 相对充足 | 相对亏缺 | | 持续时间 | 均值 | 方差 | 中位数 | 持续时间 | 均值 | 方差 | 中位数 | | 主要阶段 | 220 BC~31 BC | 2.947 | 1.386 | 3.0 | 30 BC~440 AD | 2.426 | 0.989 | 2.0 | | 441~760 AD | 3.250 | 1.097 | 3.0 | 761~960 AD | 2.400 | 0.884 | 2.5 | | 961~1210 AD | 3.400 | 1.083 | 3.0 | 1211~1380 AD | 2.176 | 0.779 | 2.0 | | 1381~1910 AD | 3.000 | 1.808 | 3.0 | - | - | - | - | | 次级波动 | 180 BC~111 BC | 3.857 | 0.476 | 4.0 | 220 BC~181 BC | 1.750 | 0.917 | 1.5 | | 80 BC~31 BC | 3.400 | 0.300 | 3.0 | 110 BC~81 BC | 1.667 | 0.333 | 2.0 | | 41~110 AD | 3.286 | 0.238 | 3.0 | 30 BC~40 AD | 1.571 | 0.286 | 2.0 | | 211~290 AD | 3.000 | 0.286 | 3.0 | 111~210 AD | 1.600 | 0.267 | 2.0 | | 351~440 AD | 3.333 | 0.750 | 4.0 | 291~350 AD | 1.667 | 0.267 | 2.0 | | 581~760 AD | 3.667 | 1.059 | 3.5 | 441~580 AD | 2.714 | 0.681 | 3.0 | | 791~840 AD | 3.400 | 0.300 | 3.0 | 761~790 AD | 1.667 | 0.333 | 2.0 | | 911~960 AD | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.0 | 841~910 AD | 1.571 | 0.286 | 2.0 | | 961~1040 AD | 4.125 | 0.696 | 4.0 | 1041~1210 AD | 3.059 | 0.934 | 3.0 | | 1211~1310 AD | 2.700 | 0.456 | 3.0 | 1311~1380 AD | 1.429 | 0.286 | 1.0 | | 1381~1520 AD | 3.786 | 0.797 | 3.5 | 1521~1570 AD | 1.400 | 0.300 | 1.0 | | 1571~1600 AD | 4.000 | 1.000 | 4.0 | 1601~1680 AD | 1.500 | 0.286 | 1.5 | | 1681~1800 AD | 4.167 | 0.515 | 4.0 | 1801~1910 AD | 2.300 | 0.900 | 2.0 |
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