贝叶斯框架的Copula季节水文干旱预报模型构建及应用
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张玉虎, 向柳, 孙庆, 陈秋华
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Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting of Seasonal Hydrological Drought Based on Copula Function
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Yuhu Zhang, Liu Xiang, Qing Sun, Qiuhua Chen
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| 表2 每3个月径流不同分布拟合的AIC值和p值(括号内为p值) |
| Table 2 The AIC and p value of the K-S test found for different distributions fitted to three-month seasonal flow volumes |
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| 月份 | Gamma | Lognormal | Normal | Gumbel | Exponential | | 1~3 | 522.0(0.84) | 523.3(8×10-07) | 524.4(0.75) | 524.2(0.60) | 53 848(3×10-09) | | 2~4 | 500.3(1) | 501.5(2×10-06) | 502.0(0.97) | 502.4 (0.93) | 45 231(7×10-10) | | 3~5 | 551.3(0.81) | 554.6(2×10-06) | 555.7(0.54) | 550.1(0.85) | 50 178(1×10-07) | | 4~6 | 598.5(0.95) | 602.2(0.0002) | 601.5(0.88) | 599.0(0.80) | 90 950.4(1×10-07) | | 5~7 | 647.9(0.81) | 648.7(1×10-07) | 652.3(0.53) | 644.2(0.90) | 199 507(9×10-10) | | 6~8 | 676.4(0.89) | 678.2(3×10-07) | 678.2(0.79) | 676.7(0.70) | 308 277(7×10-10) | | 7~9 | 677.4(0.62) | 678.8(4×10-08) | 680.2(0.36) | 676.8(0.94) | 308 167(9×10-09) | | 8~10 | 646.8(0.71) | 647.4(4×10-07) | 651.1(0.50) | 644.0(0.95) | 215 479(1×10-09) | | 9~11 | 582.4 (0.92) | 581.1(8×10-07) | 589.4(0.77) | 576.9(0.99) | 104 306(1×10-10) | | 10~12 | 511.0(0.41) | 510.3(1×10-07) | 514.2(0.30) | 505.3(0.90) | 72 409(1×10-11) | | 11~1 | 509.4(0.74) | 509.8(3×10-06) | 510.7(0.65) | 510.7(0.50) | 65 531(5×10-11) | | 12~2 | 529.5(0.93) | 531.1(2×10-06) | 530.6(0.93) | 533.2(0.50) | 62 610(3×10-09) |
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