Effects Decomposition and Theoretical Mechanism of Urbanization Influencing Energy Consumption in China
Cheng Kaiming1,, Zhang Yafei1, Chen Long1
School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China
National Nature Science Foundation of China (71373240),Humanities and Social Science Research Fund of Ministry of Education (13YJA630012),Philosophy and Social Sciences Fund in Zhejiang Province (13ZJQN005YB),Modern Business Research Center Planning of Zhejiang Gongshang University and 2011 Collaborative Innovation Center Planning of Zhejiang Province (15SMGK03Z).;
In order to explore effects of urbanization on energy consumption in China, the Spatial Dubin Model is used to analyze the influence of urbanization on energy intensity according to panel data in 2000-2012. After the spatial spillover effect is estimated, the total effects are decomposed to direct effects and indirect effects by partial differentiation. Results show that urbanization is an importance factor on the increase of energy intensity and the influence indicate obvious difference among three regions. Indirect effects of urbanization influencing energy intensity are significantly positive for all provinces. But direct effects are not obvious and present different patterns among three regions. Then theoretical mechanism of urbanization influencing energy consumption is analyzed. The influence of urbanization on energy consumption is the combined action of scale effects, technology effects, structure effects, stage effects and spatial effects. The direct effects of urbanization affecting energy consumption are the result of scale effects, technological effects, structural effects and stage effects, including direct and indirect paths. The indirect effects of urbanization affecting energy consumption are mainly derived from spillover effects between the regions. The results of this article show that urbanization plays an important role in the growth of energy consumption. Nowadays, Chinese government is accelerating the pace of urbanization, which may need more energy demand. Thus, studying the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption is very important to draw up urbanization planning and energy policy. Some recommendations are put forward to promote economic transformation and upgrading, accelerate the construction of ecological civilization. The following research will pay more attention to the nonlinear effects of urbanization on energy intensity and the effects of different types of city on energy consumption, which can provide constructing suggestions for government policy.
spatial Dubin model;
ReinhardM, S Yasin. Impacts of Urbanization on Urban Structures and Energy Demand: What Can We Learn for Urban Energy Planning and Urbanization Management?[J]. , 2011, (1):45-53.
Abstract Since 2007, for the first time in human history, more than half of the world's population has been living in cities. The urbanization process is a key phenomenon of economic development, and leads to a significant concentration of human resources, economic activities, and resource consumption in cities. Although covering only about 2% of the earth's surface, cities are responsible for about 75% of the world's consumption of resources. This trend will intensify over the next decades as a consequence of high urbanization rates in Africa and, even more importantly, in Asia. In order to estimate the impact of urbanization on energy demand, we have to identify the different processes and mechanisms of urbanization that substantially affect urban structures as well as human behavior. Taking a closer look at city-related production, mobility and transport, infrastructure and urban density, as well as private households, we find that various mechanisms of urbanization within the different sectors of the economy lead to a substantial increase in urban energy demand and to a change in the fuel mix. The relevance of these mechanisms differs considerably between developed and developing countries as well as within the group of developing countries. Over the next decades, cities and especially newly emerging megacities in developing countries will play a key role concerning the development and distribution of global energy demand. Hence, urban energy planning and urbanization management will be pivotal for creating the right framework conditions for a sustainable energy future.
ShobhakarD.Urban Energy Use and Carbon Emissions from Cities in China and Policy Implications[J]. , 2009, 37(11):4208-4219.
Urban areas contain 40% of the population and contribute 75% of the Chinese national economy. Thus, a better understanding of urban energy uses is necessary for Chinese decision-makers at various levels to address energy security, climate change mitigation, and local pollution abatement. Therefore, this paper addresses three key questions: What is the urban contribution to China's energy usage and CO 2 emissions? What is the contribution of large cities, and what alternate energy鈥揺conomy pathways are they following? How have energy uses and CO 2 emissions transformed in the last two decades in key Chinese cities? This three-tier analysis illustrates the changes in urban energy uses and CO 2 emissions in China. The results show that the urban contributions make up 84% of China's commercial energy usage. The 35 largest cities in China, which contain 18% of the population, contribute 40% of China's energy uses and CO 2 emissions. In four provincial cities, the per capita energy usage and CO 2 emissions have increased several-fold. Rapid progress was made in reducing the carbon intensity of economic activities in cities throughout the 1990s, but alarmingly, such progress has either slowed down or been reversed in the last few years. These results have important policy implications.
[Department of EnergyStatistics, National Bureau ofStatistics. China Energy Statistical Yearbook(2013) Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2014.]
Jones DW.How Urbanization Affects Energy Use in Developing Countries[J]. , 1991, 19(7):621-630.
This paper identifies mechanisms whereby urbanization affects energy consumption. Industrialization and urbanization accompany each other during economic development, but urbanization exerts a number of independent influences on energy-use. It permits economies of scale in production but requires more transportation. Food must be transported to urbanized populations and relatively smaller agricultural populations must modernize, entailing considerable increases in agricultural energy-use. In cities, a number of production activities which were domestically provided in rural areas, using human or animal energy, shift to sources outside the household, using modern energy sources. The largest single source of change in energy-use is personal transportation. Passenger transport in cities is heavily weighted towards fuel-using modes, particularly as incomes increase. To assess the overall impact, a regression analysis of 59 developing countries for 1980 is conducted. Holding constant per capita income and the extent of industrialization, the elasticity of energy consumption per capita and per dollar of GDP is between 0.35 and 0.48.
YorkR.Demographic Trends and Energy Consumption in European Union Nations: 1960-2025[J]. , 2007, 36:855-872.
ABSTRACT We analyze data for fourteen foundational European Union Nations covering the period 1960鈥2000 to estimate the effects of demographic and economic factors on energy consumption. We find that population size and age structure have clear effects on energy consumption. Economic development and urbanization also contribute substantially to changes in energy consumption. We use the resultant model to project energy consumption for the year 2025 based on demographic and economic projections to assess the implications of various demographic scenarios. The projections suggest that the expected decline of population growth in Europe will help curtail expansion in energy consumption.
PoumanyvongP, S Kaneko, S Dhakal. Impacts of Urbanization on National Transport and Road Energy Use:Evidence from Low, Middle and High Income Countries[J]. , 2012, 46:268-277.
Few attempts have been made to investigate quantitatively and systematically the impact of urbanization on transport energy use for countries of different stages of economic development. This paper examines the influence of urbanization on national transport and road energy use for low, middle and high income countries during 1975?2005, using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model. After controlling for population size, income per capita and the share of services in the economy, the main results suggest that urbanization influences national transport and road energy use positively. However, the magnitude of its influence varies among the three income groups. Changes in urbanization appear to have a greater impact on transport and road energy use in the high income group than in the other groups. Surprisingly, the urbanization elasticities of transport and road energy use in the middle income group are smaller than those of the low income group. This study not only sheds further light on the existing literature, but also provides policy makers with insightful information on the link between urbanization and transport energy use at the three different stages of development.
Newman WG, J R. Kenworthy. Cities and Automobile Dependence: An International Sourcebook[M]. , 1989.
EwingR, F Rong. The Impact of Irban Form on US Residential Energy Use[J]. , 2008, 19(1):1-30.
While the impact of urban form on transportation energy use has been studied extensively, its impact on residential energy use has not. This article presents a conceptual framework linking urban form to residential energy use via three causal pathways: electric transmission and distribution losses, energy requirements of different housing stocks, and space heating and cooling requirements associated with urban heat islands. Two of the three can be analyzed with available national data. After we control for other influences, residents of sprawling counties are more likely to live in single鈥恌amily detached houses than otherwise comparable residents of compact counties and also more likely to live in big houses. Both lead to higher residential energy use. Because of the urban heat island effect, residents of sprawling counties across the nation on average pay a small residential energy penalty relative to residents of compact counties. Implications for urban planning are explored.
SadorskyP.Do Urbanization and Industrialization Affect Energy Intensity in Developing Countries?[J]. , 2013, 37:52-59.
Against a backdrop of concerns about climate change, peak oil, and energy security issues, reducing energy intensity is often advocated as a way to at least partially mitigate these impacts. This study uses recently developed heterogeneous panel regression techniques like mean group estimators and common correlated effects estimators to model the impact that income, urbanization and industrialization has on energy intensity for a panel of 76 developing countries. In the long-run, a 1% increase in income reduces energy intensity by 610.45% to 610.35%. Long-run industrialization elasticities are in the range 0.07 to 0.12. The impact of urbanization on energy intensity is mixed. In specifications where the estimated coefficient on urbanization is statistically significant, it is slightly larger than unity. The implications of these results for energy policy are discussed.
ShahbazM, H Lean. Does Financial Development Increase Energy Consumption?The Role of Industrialization and Urbanization in Tunisia[J]. , 2012, 40(1) :473-479.
This paper assesses the relationship among energy consumption, financial development, economic growth, industrialization and urbanization in Tunisia from 1971-2008. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and Granger causality tests are employed for the analysis. The result confirms the existence of long-run relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, financial development, industrialization and urbanization in Tunisia. Moreover, financial development, industrialization and urbanization are positively related to energy consumption especially in the long-run. Long-run bidirectional causal relationships are found between financial development and energy consumption, financial development and industrialization, and industrialization and energy consumption. Hence, sound and developed financial system which can attract investors, boost the stock market and improve the efficiency of economic activities should be encouraged in the country. Nevertheless, promoting industrialization and urbanization can never be left out from the process of development. On the other hand, the unidirectional causality from energy consumption to financial development implies that government should implement loose monetary policy which will stimulates investment activities and enhances economic growth and hence the energy consumption.
HaliciogluF.Residential Electricity Demand Dynamics in Turkey[J]. , 2007, 29(2):199-210.
This article provides fresh empirical evidences for the income and price elasticies of the residential energy demand both in the short-run and long-run for Turkey over the period 1968鈥2005, using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration. The computed elasticities of income and price are consistent with the previous studies and, as expected, the long-run elasticities are greater than the short-run elasticities. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented among residential electricity, income, price and urbanization. In the long-run, causality runs interactively through the error-correction term from income, price and urbanization to residential energy but the short-run causality tests are inconclusive The parameter stability of the short-run as well as long-run coefficients in the residential energy demand function are tested. The results of these tests display a stable pattern.
MishraV, S Sharma, R Smyth. Are Fluctuations in Energy Consumption Per Capita Transitory? Evidence from a Panel of Pacific Island Countries[J]. , 2009, 37(6):2318-2326.
This study applies the panel stationarity test developed by [Carrion-i-Silvestre et al 2005. Breaking the panels: An application to GDP per capita. Econometrics Journal 8, 159-175] to examine the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for a panel of 13 Pacific Island countries over the period 1980-2005. This test has the advantage that it allows for multiple structural breaks at unknown dates that can differ across countries and can account for all forms of cross-sectional correlation between countries. The conclusion from the study is that energy consumption per capita in approximately 60% of countries is stationary and that energy consumption per capita for the panel as a whole is stationary. The study offers several suggestions for modelling energy consumption and policy-making in the Pacific Islands.
WangQiang.Effects of Urbanisation on Energy Consumption in China[J]. , 2014, 65(2):332-339.
As a key issue in China's economic development, urbanisation creates increasing pressure on energy supply and the natural environment. Thus, a better understanding of the relationship between urbanisation and energy consumption is necessary for Chinese decision makers at various levels to address energy security and sustainable economic and social development. This paper empirically investigates the effects of China's urbanisation on residential energy consumption (REC) and production energy consumption (PEC) through a time-series analysis. The results show that compared with rural areas, urbanisation slows per capita REC growth because of the economy of scale and technological advantages associated with urbanisation but has greater promotional effects on the growth of REC and the improvement of REC structure. The economic growth caused by urbanisation most significantly contributes to an increase in PEC, whereas technological advancement was found to reduce the scale of PEC (except from 2001 to 2005). Finally, the structural effect of the energy supply increased rather than decreased China's PEC, and the effect of industrial structure adjustment on PEC was found to be insignificant.
[ZhangXiaoping.Temporal-spatial Characteristics of Energy Consumption in China and Its Determinants since the 1990s. , 2005, 15(2):38-41.]
耿海青. 能源基础与城市化发展的相互作用机理分析[D]. , 2004.
[GengHaiqing.Analysis of the Interaction Mechanism between Energy and Urbanization Development. , 2004.]
ShenLei, ChengShengkui, A J Gunson et al. Urbanization, Sustainability and the Utilization of Energy and Mineral Resources in China[J]. , 2005, 22(4):287-302.
ABSTRACT *This paper analyzes a model depicting the trend of Chinese urbanization and explores relationships between urbanization and the supply and demand of major energy and mineral resources and between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the urbanization of China. Then it predicts China’s supply and demand trends from 2005 to 2050. It is predicted that until 2010 China’s GDP and urbanization will grow at high speed, slowing slightly yet still growing strongly on to 2050. It also argues that the supply of cement, steel, aluminum and coal and the demand of timber, cement and steel have significant effects on urbanization. The paper concludes that China will inevitably face a long shortage of resources if future urbanization is faster than predicted, i.e., China cannot meet the targets of the current urbanization strategy while continuing current energy and resource consumption for its industrialization and modernization.
[Wanglei, WeiHoukai. The Impacts of Chinese Urbanization on Energy Consumption. , 2014, 36(6):1235-1243.]
ZhangChuanguo, YanLin. Panel Estimation for Urbanization, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions: A Regional Analysis in China[J]. , 2012, 49:488-498.
As urbanization accelerates, urban areas play a leading role in energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China. The existing research is extensively concerned with the relationships between urbanization, energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in recent years, but little attention has been paid to the regional differences. This paper is an analysis of the impact of urbanization on energy consumption and CO 2 emissions at the national and regional levels using the STIRPAT model and provincial panel data from 1995 to 2010 in China. The results showed that urbanization increases energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China. The effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across regions and decline continuously from the western region to the central and eastern regions. The impact of urbanization on CO 2 emissions in the central region is greater than that in the eastern region. The impact of urbanization on energy consumption is greater than the impact on CO 2 emissions in the eastern region. And some evidences support the argument of compact city theory. These results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from policy makers and urban planners in China.
DietzT, E A Rosa. Effects of population and affluence on CO2emissions[J]. , 1997, 94(1):175-179.
We developed a stochastic version of the Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology (IPAT) model to estimate the effects of population, affluence, and technology on national CO2 emissions. Our results suggest that, for population, there are diseconomies of scale for the largest nations that are not consistent with the assumption of direct proportionality (log-linear effects) common to most previous research. In contrast, the effects of affluence on CO2 emissions appear to reach a maximum at about $10,000 in per- capita gross domestic product and to decline at higher levels of affluence. These results confirm the general value of the IPAT model as a starting point for understanding the anthropogenic driving forces of global change and suggest that population and economic growth anticipated over the next decade will exacerbate greenhouse gas emissions.