地理科学  2018 , 38 (12): 2084-2092 https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.017

Orginal Article

南京城市住宅“售租比”时空格局与分异机理

宋伟轩1, 陈培阳2, 陈浩3, 尹上岗4

1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,流域地理学重点实验室,江苏 南京 210008
2. 苏州大学建筑学院,江苏 苏州215123
3.南京大学建筑与城市规划学院,江苏 南京 210093
4. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏 南京 210023

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Differentiation Mechanism of Price-to-rent Ratio of Nanjing

Song Weixuan1, Chen Peiyang2, Chen Hao3, Yin Shanggang4

1. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, China
2. School of Architecture, Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, Jiangsu, China
3.School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, Jiangsu, China
4. School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China

中图分类号:  K902

文献标识码:  A

文章编号:  1000-0690(2018)12-2084-09

通讯作者:  通讯作者:陈培阳。E-mail:cpynju@126.com

收稿日期: 2017-11-5

修回日期:  2018-01-5

网络出版日期:  2018-12-20

版权声明:  2018 《地理科学》编辑部 本文是开放获取期刊文献,在以下情况下可以自由使用:学术研究、学术交流、科研教学等,但不允许用于商业目的.

基金资助:  国家自然科学基金项目(41771184,41501168,51608251)资助

作者简介:

作者简介:宋伟轩(1981-),男,吉林敦化人,博士,副研究员,主要从事城市社会空间研究。E-mail:lig@nwu.edu.cn

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摘要

“售租比”是国内外学者测度房价健康水平或泡沫风险的关键指标之一。利用中国房价行情平台提供的南京居住小区2009~2017年期间分季度平均售租价格信息,采用GIS空间分析等方法,考察南京中心城区“售租比”空间格局与演变过程。研究发现: 城市整体“售租比”随房价波动变化明显,2016~2017年间快速增长;分异度先降后升,以城区内部差异为主,城区间差异越来越小; 高“售租比”小区多集聚于河西新城、江北新区等房价增速较快的投资热点区域。南京住宅“售租比”过快上升和空间离散加剧,意味着城市房价快速增长的合理性在降低。从地租视角解读,绝对地租决定着城市整体“售租比”的高低,级差地租和垄断地租则影响着城市内部“售租比”的空间分异。“售租比”可为判断城市内部房价相对合理性提供重要依据,但能否通过该指标准确预判城市房价风险程度及空间格局尚有待深入研究。

关键词: 售租比 ; 房价 ; 空间分异 ; 地租理论 ; 南京

Abstract

Housing price in Chinese big cities has been a focus issue in the society, which is not only high, but also ever-rising. While, the ‘Price-to-rent Ratio’ is one of the key indicators for scholars to measure housing price whether in healthy level or risk of a bubble. The study obtains the information of average sales and rent price of residential communities during 30 quarters from 2009 to 2017 in Nanjing, on the basis of “big data” about housing transaction provided by China Housing Price Market Platform. With the method of GIS spatial analysis and differentiation index, it investigates the spatial pattern and transformation process of price-to-rent ratio, as well as city housing price risk and spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of central urban area in Nanjing. The study finds that: 1) the overall price-to-rent ratio changes obviously with the fluctuation of housing price, which presents a rapid growth during 2016-2017; 2) the degree of differentiation falls first and rises later, and the differentiation in urban area is the main reason, whereas the differentiation between the inner and outer urban areas becomes increasingly blurred; 3) residential communities with a high price-to-rent ratio are primarily in the new urban areas, including Hexi and Jiangbei, where are the investment hot spots with rapid growth of housing price. The housing price risk is rising sharply in Nanjing and there is a trend of spatial generalization, which is judged from the phenomenon of extraordinary rise in price-to-rent ratio of urban houses, intensification of spatial dispersion, and housing price and rent being reversed for the first time. Based the land rent theory, it interprets the phenomenon of the price-to-rent ratio rising and spatial heterogeneity intensifying. It is the capacity of comprehensive allocation of resource elements in cities (absolute rent) that decides the overall housing price and rent level of the city; the urban spatial structure and factor input difference (differential rent) decides the spatial distribution pattern of housing price and price-to-rent ratio; while, the scarcity of high quality space and public services (monopoly rent) is likely to lead to the multi-scale space of the price-to-rent ratio. Finally, it analyzes the possibility of judging the degree of urban house price risk by using price-to-rent ratio. It suggest that the rapid rise in housing prices in Nanjing is worth vigilant; and especially in 2016-2017, both the price-to-rent ratio and the degree of space dispersion climbed to the highest value of history, due to the house prices having risen sharply and rents fall at the same time, which shows that the overall housing price risk is increasing.

Keywords: price-to-rent ratio ; housing price ; spatial differentiation ; land rent theory ; Nanjing

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宋伟轩, 陈培阳, 陈浩, 尹上岗. 南京城市住宅“售租比”时空格局与分异机理[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(12): 2084-2092 https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.017

Song Weixuan, Chen Peiyang, Chen Hao, Yin Shanggang. Spatial-temporal Pattern and Differentiation Mechanism of Price-to-rent Ratio of Nanjing[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(12): 2084-2092 https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.017

20世纪末,城市住房供给制度市场化改革以后,中国大城市房价持续升高,引起国内外城市学者的密切关注[1,2,3,4]。因房价泡沫曾是1998年东南亚金融危机和2008年全球金融危机的前兆,所以中国城市房价是否存在以及如何度量泡沫,成为学者们争论的焦点[5,6]。测度房地产泡沫的技术手段众多,住宅“售租比”(每平方米建筑面积的房价/每平方米建筑面积的月租金)由于数据易得、计算简单、结果直观等优势,成为国内外应用最广泛的表征房地产泡沫的指标之一[7,8]。例如有学者发现美国2006年前后“售租比”猛增,提出房价显著偏离房租意味着投机性泡沫的产生[9];亦有持不同观点的学者提出,包括“售租比”“房价收入比”在内的各类比率,均不能被直接用以判断当地住房市场是否存在泡沫,而只能作为度量泡沫化风险的相对指标,长期历史数据的观察与比较不可或缺[10]。中国学者认为,考虑到中国处于经济、城市化快速发展时期,以及居民投资消费习惯等具体国情,高“售租比”现象在中国现阶段房地产市场中出现具有一定合理性[11],再者相比欧美动辄百年的住房市场化历史而言,中国房改以来时间尚短,不能简单套用发达国家的“售租比”标准区间(通常认为房价租金比在200~300范围内较为合理)来诊断住房市场泡沫程度[12]

虽然直接将“售租比”大小与城市房地产泡沫程度挂钩存在难度,但毫无疑问,城市整体“售租比”及其内部时空变化,能够相对反映出城市房价的健康程度,甚至房价“泡沫化”风险的高低[13]。因为,房价涨落受到宏观经济、供需和收入变化等各类“预期”的影响,主要反映的是住房未来的保值增值潜力,即住宅的“投资品属性”;而租金更多体现的是住房的“消费品属性”,更能真实反映住房供需关系和居民收入水平;城市“售租比”不断扩大,象征着住房投资或投机性消费的增加,在短时间内陡然升高则表明房价不合理程度加剧。按照欧美标准,中国大城市“售租比”早在20世纪末就已突破“理性”水平[14],并且在快速城市化和收入增长驱动下持续上涨[15]。2008年金融危机爆发以来,中国城市房价和“租售比”增速甚至快于以往,其影响因素和作用机理具有多样性和复杂性[16,17]

习总书记在十九大报告中再次强调“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的”,要“加快建立租购并举的住房制度,让全体人民住有所居”,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。鉴于“售租比”指标对评价住房市场健康程度的参考作用,开展针对中国典型城市“售租比”及其时空分异等问题的实证研究,具有明确的现实意义。南京地处长三角城市群,其内生型城市发展模式在中国大城市中具有一定代表性;近年来随着房价快速上涨,南京城市住宅平均售价、租金和“售租比”等指标在全国城市中均排名靠前,具有较强典型性。因此,本文以南京为案例,利用2009~2017年住房交易市场数据,分析城市“售租比”时空格局及演变特征,并从地租视角解读“售租比”空间分异规律与机理,以期为预测预警预防城市房价风险的相关研究提供参考。

1 数据来源与研究区域

1.1 数据来源

中国房价行情平台(www.creprice.cn)是全国性房地产信息综合服务平台,其数据获取方式为:采集超过5 000万人次用户发布信息和全国上万家房地产网站信息,然后通过数据处理技术对收集到的数据进行重复过滤和异常排除,再重新组织并经人工核对,获得相对全面、及时、客观的房地产市场供给数据。课题组通过与该平台开展数据合作,获取从2009年第四季度(或自有销售记录起)至2017年第一季度期间,南京城市所有类型住宅小区(或组团)每季度住宅平均售价(元/m2)和平均租金[元/(m2·月)],以及小区名称、行政归属、经纬度、占地面积、容积率、绿化率、住宅套数和建筑类型等属性信息。通过将上述小区属性与售租价格数据导入南京矢量地图,建立南京城市住宅小区空间属性数据库。

1.2 研究区域

根据2016年7月12日国务院正式批复的《南京市城市总体规划》,南京中心城区由主城区和东山、仙林、江北3个副城区组成,即“一主三副”,面积约为741.5 km2,是住宅小区相对集中的城市空间,即本文研究区域。南京中心城区内包含3 963个住宅小区(2017年),占全市样本总量的86.9%,能够较充分代表南京城市住宅小区的整体状况。其中,绕城公路以内的主城区因范围较大,按空间发展特征划分为明城墙围合的内城区、河西新城(含江心洲)和外围城区(表1图1)。

表1   研究区样本小区数量及分布

Table 1   Quantity and distribution of sample residential communities in study area

区域2009年样本小区2017年样本小区
数量(个)占比(%)数量(个)占比(%)
主城内城46127.57108327.33
河西34020.3366316.73
外围48529.0199625.12
仙林副城623.712155.43
东山副城20011.9647511.99
江北副城1247.4253113.40
全部16721003963100

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图1   研究范围与样本小区

Fig.1   Study area and sample residential communities

2 数据空间特征

利用ArcGIS软件中的渔网(fishnet)分析工具(500 m×500 m),分别考察2009年(第四季度)和2017年(第一季度)南京中心城区房价、租金和“售租比”的空间分布格局及总体变化特征。如图2所示: 房价方面,2009年,以内城为核心,均价在20 000元/m2左右,向河西新城、主城外围和三大副城递减,其中江北均价最低,普遍在10 000元/m2以下;到2017年,平均房价上涨至25 358元/m2,高低值差异更加显著,河西新城和内城名校学区成为房价极高值区,可达50 000~60 000元/m2,而均价20 000元/m2以下住宅仅存于江北的六合等偏远地区。 租金方面,2009年,与房价类似,呈现以内城为高值向外递减的“核心-边缘”结构,不过内城的租金优势更加明显,尤其是新街口地区,租金在40元/(m2·月)以上,远高于区域整体约25元/(m2·月)的均值;2017年,新街口地区与河西新城具有较高租金,局部小区可达60元/(m2·月)以上。总体上,租金相较房价而言增速更加平缓、空间更趋均衡。 “售租比”则不同,2009年,内城低于外围、主城低于新城,主城大部分地区平均“售租比”小于600,整体空间依赖性较强;到2017年,空间格局发生显著变化,“售租比”升高与空间分化加剧同时发生;少量内城名校“学区房”和外围山水别墅“售租比”高达1 800以上,即不考虑利息和价格变化等因素,靠租金收回购房成本最少需要150 a。

图2   2009年和2017年南京房价、租金和“售租比”空间分布格局

Fig.2   Spatial distribution pattern of housing price, rent and price-to-rent ratio of Nanjing in 2009 and 2017

3 “售租比”空间分异与演进特征

3.1 整体随房价波动上升,城区间差异缩小

2009~2017年期间,南京各城区平均“售租比”呈现以相似形态波动上升的趋势(图3)。究其原因,跟房价阶段性上涨有关:2009~2011年,房价快速增长,而租金市场对房价上涨的反应存在时滞,于是各城区“售租比”先大幅升高,随后因租金跟进上涨又有所降低,使该阶段出现倒U型变化曲线;2012~2015年,房价同样出现波动式上涨,但因涨幅不大且租金基本保持同步跟进,使该阶段“售租比”较为平稳,总体维持在500~600区间内;2016~2017年,“售租比”随房价快速上涨出现大幅抬升,整体从543升至881;值得注意的是,2016年底南京首度出现房价与租金的逆向变化,即房价连续上涨的同时租金持续下降,这种反常现象可能预示着城市投资性住宅消费的增加,正在使房价逐渐脱离真实住宅供需关系。

图3   南京各城区分季度住宅“售租比”变化情况

Fig.3   Variation of price-to-rent ratio on a quarterly basis in different areas in Nanjing

从各城区“售租比”表现差异上看(图3):2009~2011年,内城最低,河西与主城其他地区居中,副城区最高,城区间的差距迅速缩小;2012~2015年,内城依然最低,河西新城跃升为最高,城区间差异继续收敛;2016~2017年,城区间差距变得更小。从可能的原因上看,初期外围新城区因投资性购房远超过现实居住需求,从而形成较高的“售租比”,而内城由于集中商业、教育、医疗和服务岗位等各类城市资源,带来较强的居住需求,使房价与租金的差距较小;中后期随着内城人口向外围新城加快迁移,内城租金增速落后于外围地区,“售租比”逐渐赶上其他城区。

3.2 空间异质性加剧,高值集聚于投资热点地区

各城区间“售租比”差异变小,主要归因于因开发时序不同导致的新老城区配套成熟度和人口集聚度差异在缩小。根据房地产领域的区位决定论,如果城市住宅市场是较为理性的,城区内区位大致相同的小区在市场交易中会相互参照和彼此影响,相邻住宅的房价或租金理论上应向趋同的方向发展。即“售租比”的空间分异或离散程度随时间推移理应表现为逐渐降低或基本平稳。

为检验上述判断,选取在时间尺度上具有完整数据的样本小区计算各季度“售租比”泰尔指数(Theil Index)[18],考察“售租比”空间分异与变化趋势。结果发现总体上分异指数有所上涨,城区内分异贡献率远高于城区间贡献率,且差距不断扩大。具体表现为3个阶段:2009~2011年分异指数显著降低,由0.012 1降至0.006 4,其中城区间差异贡献率明显减小;2012~2015年相对平稳,保持在0.007至0.008之间,城区间和城区内贡献率亦稳定在7%和93%左右,说明整体“售租比”空间分异格局维持在一个相对稳定状态;2016~2017年分异指数快速上升,蹿升至0.015 6,城区内部分异贡献率最终高达97.64%,说明各城区普遍陷入一种“高售租比、高增速、高分异”状态。

在高房价、高增速作用下,城市整体“售租比”空间结构的异质化或非平滑趋势增强,高“售租比”并不必然出现在房价最高的地区,而是聚集于城市中房价增速最快的投资热点地段,例如江北新区、河西新城等地。“售租比”被认为是评估房价偏离住宅价值程度的重要指标[19],具有较高“售租比”的房地产投资热点区域通常被认为房价风险相对更高。然而,城市住宅,这种兼具耐用消费品与家庭投资品属性的土地附着物,具有不同于一般商品的空间性,其价值很大程度上受到所在土地价值或称“地租”的影响。地租高低取决于多种因素,例如拥有优质景观或公共服务资源的稀缺性地段具有较高地租,而这种高地租带来的住宅增值收益是捆绑在住宅产权上的,因此通常会明显拉升房价却可能对租金影响并不显著,这使得此类地区住宅出现高“售租比”现象。

4 基于地租理论的住宅“售租比”解读

4.1 绝对地租作用下的城市整体房价与“售租比”

中国改革开放以后的城市化进程很大程度上由土地开发主导[20],而政府因拥有城市土地所有权,可获得土地开发过程中的绝对地租(absolute rent)。事实上,分税制改革以后,土地出让和地产开发过程中获取的超额利润,已成为地方政府财政的支柱与核心[21]。因此,城市政府乐见“地王”频出和地租上涨[22, 23],从而获取可观的土地财政收益。

地价是城市地租的资本化表达,整体上取决于城市综合能级,具体而言,是由城市人口、经济、服务和行政等资源要素配置能力所决定的[24]。土地成本是住宅开发成本的主要部分,高地价必然导致高房价,可以说城市大部分房价增长是由土地价值增值(绝对地租上涨)导致的[25]。住宅具有不同于一般商品的资产和资本属性,住房刚性或投资需求与土地供给量相对不足间的矛盾,使南京等大城市住宅比中小城市更具有稀缺性和投资价值,于是地价与房价在互相促进中实现轮动上涨。虽然租金也受地价影响,但因其不具备投资意义,更多是反映城市经济实力和居民收入水平,故城市间租金差距不及房价显著,导致不同等级城市间“售租比”差距悬殊,并表现出日趋扩大和不稳定状态[26]

绝对地租作用下,不同等级城市间的“售租比”存在天然差异,因此不能简单横向比较;而同类型城市之间的“售租比”差异则具有比较意义。例如同是长三角地区省会级城市的南京与杭州之间的比较(图4):2009~2017年期间,宁杭两市平均租金呈现大致相同的走势,一直保持比较稳定的增速和差距,较客观反映出杭州与南京的城市综合实力和发展差距;房价则不同,该时段内杭州总体上涨幅度不大而南京同期增幅高达150%,造成南京房价和“售租比”反超杭州并持续拉大差距,至2017年初,南京城市平均“售租比”已高出杭州达200,由此判断,南京整体房价及其增长幅度在合理性上不及杭州。

图4   宁杭两市住宅平均房价、租金和“售租比”变化及比较

Fig.4   Comparison of average housing price, rent and price-to-rent ratio in Nanjing and Hangzhou

4.2 极差、垄断地租与南京“售租比”空间分异

城市内部亦非“均质平原”,异质性的地租空间导致差异化的“售租比”空间(① 在非均质城市空间中,“售租比”的倒数,即“租售比”代表着商品住宅的投资利润率(不考虑价格变化等因素),理应具有差异化的表现。)。特别是在级差地租(differential rent)和垄断地租(monopoly rent)作用下[27],城市地租空间呈现出小尺度破碎化趋势,导致房价和“售租比”空间分异的加剧。具体表现为:

1) 房地产市场化改革以前,南京城市建设主要集中在内城区,城市地租格局类似杜能和阿隆索的同心圆式投标竞租模型[4],城市中心因各类资源要素集聚,具有最高的“建筑地段地租”(级差地租)。进入21世纪,南京城市建成区迅速扩张,“一城三区”(河西新城、东山、仙林和江北新市区)等重点拓展地区,因政府规划等政策支持和基础设施、重大项目等要素连续投入,其相对区位和土地价值得以改变,形成新老城区多中心级差地租格局。理论上,就“中心性”或称“空间资产”[28]价值而言,以新街口为核心的老城区相较外围新城区依然占据绝对优势。然而,由于老城区住宅老化,投资价值降低,而新城区住宅增值预期更高,典型如南京城市新中心河西新城、生态科技岛江心洲和国家级江北新区等,导致新城区“售租比”高于老城区。

2) 随着土地市场化更趋成熟,或者说土地主导型增长模式与空间竞租愈演愈烈,地方政府与开发商通过控制土地批租规模和增加资本投资强度等手段,追求“空间生产”超额利润并提高地租(级差地租),使城市地租格局更趋离散。特别是不同住宅区软硬件要素投入上的差异性愈发凸显,包括土地成本、建筑类型、环境设施、科技内涵、物管服务等,造成相邻小区也可能存在显著级差地租。以南京内城“中产阶层化”小区为例[29],传统住宅老化会造成土地“资本化地租”与“潜在地租”间的“租差”(rent gap)[30,31]增加,当“租差”扩大到足以吸引资本“回流”时,老旧小区可能因“追加投资”被重建为高档社区或商业场所,在产生“超额利润”的同时,也使原本相对均质的内城区出现异质性极高的地租空间。面对城市渐趋“碎片化”的地租差异,人们对于真实地租的判断存在误差,同时受到非理性投资回报预期的推动,房价最终偏离真实地租并促成离散化的“售租比”格局。

3) 城市规模与财富积累扩大后,城市内部稀缺性居住空间资源与居民高品质居住需求之间的矛盾更加凸显,具有中心区位、山水景观和优质服务的居住空间受到追捧。此类空间的垄断性和排他性,带来住宅产品的超额利润,产生垄断地租(monopoly rent)。基于可达性差异,城市中心位势、轨道交通[32,33]、公园绿地[34,35,36]和公共服务设施[37,38]等区位要素,均会对城市房价和租金产生渐变式的影响。垄断地租则不然,容易造成房价的空间突变,例如南京“拉力琅”指拉萨路小学、力学小学、琅琊路小学,是南京公认最好的三所公立小学,均位于鼓楼区且学区相连。)等名校学区[39,40]和依山傍水地段的住宅[41],因极具保值增值潜力,房价增长迅速。相对于垄断地租与房价的刚性捆绑,因租户不能享有学区入学资格和住宅增值收益,租金受垄断地租抬升幅度远不及房价,结果此类区域成为南京“售租比”极值空间。

综上可知,城市对资源要素的综合配置能力(绝对地租)决定城市整体房价与租金水平高低;城市空间结构与要素投入差异(级差地租)决定房价和“售租比”的空间分异格局;而优质空间和公共服务的稀缺(垄断地租)容易导致“售租比”极值空间的产生。究其根本,城市地租和“售租比”背后暗含的是资本增值循环的运转逻辑。正如大卫·哈维提出的资本循环“三级回路”理论所揭示的,城市建成环境是解决资本“过度积累”的重要场所[27,42,43]。城市政府视土地为有利可图的垄断资产,房地产商将其开发成具有高增长溢价的商品,消费群体则将住房作为重要投资产品,土地所有者、住宅开发者与投资者共同推动着城市地租、房价和“售租比”的轮动上涨。亦如爱德华·苏贾所言,资本总是既具破坏性又具创造性,在城市空间中表现为“各种地理景观无休止的形成与更新”[44]。资本通过刻意寻求和制造地理空间的“不均衡发展”[45],塑造并不断重塑城市地租和“售租比”的破碎化分异格局。然而,资本在城市建成环境中的循环也会出现“过度积累危机”,其“破坏性创造”增值过程亦将遇到各种阻滞。一言蔽之,中国城市地租和房价快速上涨背景下,房地产市场本身就内嵌于资本循环的固有矛盾与隐含周期性市场风险之中,而“售租比”可为窥探城市房价整体风险与内部结构提供一种窗口或可能。

5 结论

本文以南京中心城区3 963个居住小区为研究对象,通过分析其2009~2017年房价、租金及“售租比”空间演化格局发现:南京整体房价上涨高达1.5倍,增幅高于相对平稳增长的租金,导致“售租比”出现较大上浮;“售租比”空间异质性越来越显著,城区内分异占据主导地位,“售租比”高值区集中出现在房地产投资热点地段。住宅“售租比”反映着预期与需求的距离,即租金更能反映住宅市场的真实供需关系,而房价随着增值“预期”膨胀和“热钱”涌入可能会偏离真实价值,这使“售租比”成为判断房价增长合理性的重要指标。随着南京房价快速上涨,特别是2016~2017年间,房价大幅上涨与租金连续下跌同时发生,导致南京“售租比”攀升至历史最高值,表明南京整体房价风险在增加,这一现象值得警惕。城市房价风险升高已引起政府高度重视,例如南京通过限购、限贷、限价、限涨等调控措施避免房价过快上涨,有助于控制和延缓房价泡沫化风险。然而在土地财政模式下,政府期望增加地租收益与试图降低房价两者之间存在悖论。因此,尽管屡屡出台号称“史上最严”的房地产调控政策,房价依然未能得到根本抑制。最后必须承认,不管房价还是“售租比”,其影响因素和作用机理均异常复杂,下一步应积累不同类型城市、长时间跨度和多影响因素的实证研究成果,归纳总结“售租比”分异演进的一般规律与综合机理,并探索提出通过“售租比”透视城市房价风险问题的理论框架与技术路径。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.


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Fundamental real estate prices: An empirical estimation with international data

[J]. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2008, 36(4): 427-450.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9097-8      URL      [本文引用: 1]     

[8] 马欣, 杨君, 浦晓天.

城市住宅租售比空间分布规律研究——以南京市为例

[J].现代城市研究,2016(8): 72-78.

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2016.07.011      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

结合地理信息系统与空间分析方法,采用ArcGIS、Geoda等软件对南京市住宅租售比空间分布特征进行探索分析,归纳总结其空间分布机理以及背后形成原因。结果表明南京市住宅租售比整体表现为由中心沿东西向递增、南北向递减的态势,峰值点多位于边缘地区,低谷点在老城区出现。成熟与否的住宅买卖市场、区位、邻里等因素均为造成此现象的原因。

[Ma Xin, Yang Jun, Pu Xiaotian.

Research of the spatial distribution of rent-price ratio in urban housing: A case study of Nanjing

.Modern Urban Research, 2016(8): 72-78.]

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2016.07.011      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

结合地理信息系统与空间分析方法,采用ArcGIS、Geoda等软件对南京市住宅租售比空间分布特征进行探索分析,归纳总结其空间分布机理以及背后形成原因。结果表明南京市住宅租售比整体表现为由中心沿东西向递增、南北向递减的态势,峰值点多位于边缘地区,低谷点在老城区出现。成熟与否的住宅买卖市场、区位、邻里等因素均为造成此现象的原因。
[9] Nneji O, Brooks C, Ward C W R.

Intrinsic and rational speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market: 1960-2011

[J]. Journal of Real Estate Research, 2013, 35(2): 121-152.

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1736632      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

We examine the residential property market in the United States during the period 1960?2009, focusing on the long run relationship between house prices and rents. Using a Markov regime switching model, we find that a structural break occurred in the price-rent ratio series in 1998, which may have been caused by the presence of bubble in the market. We first test for the presence of an intrinsic bubble, and our results provide strong evidence that one existed during the pre-1998 period only. Constructing a separate test on the post-1998 period, we find that house prices were driven only by past price increases and not by fundamentals, implying the presence of rational speculative bubbles. The second goal of this paper is to provide a better understanding of whether changes in rents are useful in predicting house price movements, as earlier research in this area has been inconclusive. We contribute to the debate by examining how changes in rents influence returns in periods distinguished by whether or not there were intrinsic bubbles. Our results show that changes in rents can predict future returns in the housing market only in periods when there is an intrinsic bubble.
[10] Himmelberg C, Mayer C, Sinai T.

Assessing high house prices: Bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions

[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2005, 19(4): 67-92.

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.813885      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

We construct measures of the annual cost of single-family housing for 46 metropolitan areas in the United States over the last 25 years and compare them with lo
[11] 况伟大.

租售比与中国城市住房泡沫

[J].经济理论与经济管理, 2016, 36(2): 46-58.

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-596X.2016.02.004      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

本文在住房消费性和投资性需求基础上,通过泡沫和无泡沫租售比测度住房泡沫。本文对中国1996--2013年35个大中城市数据分析发现:第一,北京、上海等16个城市存在住房泡沫;第二,房价预期易催生东部和一线城市而非中西部和二三线城市住房泡沫;第三,利率政策对抑制中西部和二三线城市住房泡沫比东部和一线城市更有效;第四,住房存量过大引发住房泡沫;第五,房贷和开发成本助长住房泡沫;第六,土地财政助长住房泡沫,但股票市场回报率抑制住房泡沫。

[Kuang Weida.

Rent to price ratio and the housing bubble in urban China

. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2016, 36(2): 46-58.]

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-596X.2016.02.004      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

本文在住房消费性和投资性需求基础上,通过泡沫和无泡沫租售比测度住房泡沫。本文对中国1996--2013年35个大中城市数据分析发现:第一,北京、上海等16个城市存在住房泡沫;第二,房价预期易催生东部和一线城市而非中西部和二三线城市住房泡沫;第三,利率政策对抑制中西部和二三线城市住房泡沫比东部和一线城市更有效;第四,住房存量过大引发住房泡沫;第五,房贷和开发成本助长住房泡沫;第六,土地财政助长住房泡沫,但股票市场回报率抑制住房泡沫。
[12] 吕江林.

我国城市住房市场泡沫水平的度量

[J]. 经济研究, 2010(6): 28-41.

URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

本文考察租售比、空置率、投资购房与自住购房之比、房地产贷款占比和房地产业利润率等学术界和业界通常用来度量住房市场泡沫水平的指标的适用性,认为由于我国客观条件的制约,这些指标都不适合作为判断我国城市住房市场泡沫水平的直接、准确指标,直接、准确指标是房价收入比。依据我国房价收入比合理上限的模型,并基于我国当前城镇居民平均消费倾向、按揭贷款利率水平、按揭贷款占主导地位的期限和首付款比例区间,推导出当前我国城市居民理论上能承受的房价收入比的合理上限约在4.38—6.78倍之间。近年来我国城市住房市场总体存在泡沫、部分城市泡沫较大,部分一线城市泡沫惊人、蕴含巨大金融风险。在此基础上,本文提出了政策建议。

[Lv Jianglin.

The measurement of the bubble of urban housing market in China

. Economic Research Journal, 2010(6): 28-41.]

URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

本文考察租售比、空置率、投资购房与自住购房之比、房地产贷款占比和房地产业利润率等学术界和业界通常用来度量住房市场泡沫水平的指标的适用性,认为由于我国客观条件的制约,这些指标都不适合作为判断我国城市住房市场泡沫水平的直接、准确指标,直接、准确指标是房价收入比。依据我国房价收入比合理上限的模型,并基于我国当前城镇居民平均消费倾向、按揭贷款利率水平、按揭贷款占主导地位的期限和首付款比例区间,推导出当前我国城市居民理论上能承受的房价收入比的合理上限约在4.38—6.78倍之间。近年来我国城市住房市场总体存在泡沫、部分城市泡沫较大,部分一线城市泡沫惊人、蕴含巨大金融风险。在此基础上,本文提出了政策建议。
[13] 郑景龄.

房价租金比的影响因素研究: 基于投机和公共服务供给差别的视角

[D].杭州:浙江大学, 2014.

[本文引用: 1]     

[Zheng Jingling.

Study on the influence factors of house price-rental ratio: From perspective of speculation and supply differences in public service

. Hangzhou: Zhejiang University, 2014.]

[本文引用: 1]     

[14] Chen A.

China′s urban housing reform: Price-rent ratio and market equilibrium

[J]. Urban Studies, 1996, 33(7): 1077-1092.

https://doi.org/10.1080/00420989650011519      URL      [本文引用: 1]     

[15] Feng Q, Wu G L.

Bubble or riddle? An asset-pricing approach evaluation on China's housing market

[J].Economic Modelling, 2015, 46(4): 376-383.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.02.004      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

61Address a hot ongoing debate on whether China has a house price bubble61Apply the equilibrium asset-pricing approach to China's housing market61Construct a novel micro-level data set on pair-wise matched price-to-rent ratio collected in the fourth quarter of 201361Our empirical exercises do not suggest the existence of a house price bubble at the national level.61But this conclusion may not apply to individual markets and highly depends on the expected income growth rate.
[16] Chiang S.

Rising residential rents in Chinese mega cities: The role of monetary policy

[J].Urban Studies, 2016, 53(16): 3493-3509.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098015613753      URL      [本文引用: 1]     

[17] Cronin D, Mc Quinn K.

Credit availability, macro prudential regulations and the house price-to-rent ratio

[J].Journal of Policy Modeling, 2016, 38(5): 971-984.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.06.002      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

Quantifying the real economy effects of macroprudential policy is important at a time when such measures are increasingly being promoted as central to the prevention of future credit and house price bubbles. Recently, like other regulatory authorities, the Irish central bank introduced regulatory limits on mortgage lending aimed at protecting greater financial stability. In this paper, we seek to examine some of the wider implications of these measures for tenure choice in the Irish housing market. We find that a reduction in the loan-to-value ratio, such as may occur as a result of regulatory limits, will lead to a greater demand for rental accommodation, prompting higher rents for a given house price level. While this result is somewhat incidental to financial stability, it does have significant implications for housing policy, particularly, at a time when the Irish housing market is confronted by an acknowledged supply shortage.
[18] 高翯,王士君,谭亮.

东北振兴以来吉林省区域经济差异的时空演变研究

[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(11): 1712-1719.

URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

基于吉林省2003-2015年间地区生产总值和人均地区生产总值数据,以市域、县域两个尺度单元为研究对象,采用人口加权变异系数、基尼系数、泰尔指数等统计分析方法,对吉林省东北振兴战略实施以来的13 a内,区域经济差异的时空演变进行定量分析,并运用泰尔指数的分解方法,探讨了吉林省区域经济差异的空间格局。结果发现:(1)吉林省区域经济总体差异、市域差异、县域差异均呈逐年下降趋势。(2)通过差异贡献率显示:县域差异是区域总体差异变化的主导力量,长春市域的内部差异远高于其他市域,但有逐年减小的趋势,长吉两地的二元结构仍然突出,是全省区域经济差异产生的主要来源,主导着全省区域经济差异走向;(3)从2003-2015年来看,全省经济增长速度较快的地区主要还是集中在"三核一带";(4)吉林省经济差异主要是由资源禀赋、产业结构、极化效应和政策导向等多种因素综合作用的结果。

[Gao He, Wang Shijun, Tan Liang.

Regional economic disparities and spatio-temporal evolution in Jilin Province since 2003

. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(11): 1712-1719.]

URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

基于吉林省2003-2015年间地区生产总值和人均地区生产总值数据,以市域、县域两个尺度单元为研究对象,采用人口加权变异系数、基尼系数、泰尔指数等统计分析方法,对吉林省东北振兴战略实施以来的13 a内,区域经济差异的时空演变进行定量分析,并运用泰尔指数的分解方法,探讨了吉林省区域经济差异的空间格局。结果发现:(1)吉林省区域经济总体差异、市域差异、县域差异均呈逐年下降趋势。(2)通过差异贡献率显示:县域差异是区域总体差异变化的主导力量,长春市域的内部差异远高于其他市域,但有逐年减小的趋势,长吉两地的二元结构仍然突出,是全省区域经济差异产生的主要来源,主导着全省区域经济差异走向;(3)从2003-2015年来看,全省经济增长速度较快的地区主要还是集中在"三核一带";(4)吉林省经济差异主要是由资源禀赋、产业结构、极化效应和政策导向等多种因素综合作用的结果。
[19] Gallin J.

The long-run relationship between house prices and rents

[J]. Real Estate Economics, 2008, 36(4): 635-658.

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2008.00225.x      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

Abstract I use standard error-correction models and long-horizon regression models to examine how well the rent–price ratio predicts future changes in real rents and prices. I find evidence that the rent–price ratio helps predict changes in real prices over 4-year periods, but that the rent–price ratio has little predictive power for changes in real rents over the same period. I show that a long-horizon regression approach can yield biased estimates of the degree of error correction if prices have a unit root but do not follow a random walk, and I construct bootstrap distributions to conduct appropriate inference in the presence of this bias. The results lend empirical support to the view that the rent–price ratio is an indicator of valuation in the housing market.
[20] Lin G C S, Yi F.

Urbanization of capital or capitalization on urban land? Land development and local public finance in urbanizing China

[J]. Urban Geography, 2011, 32(1): 50-79.

https://doi.org/10.2747/0272-3638.32.1.50      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

This study examines the relationship between urban land development and municipal finance in a Chinese regional economy undergoing rapid urbanization. Drawing upon insights from the perspective of political economy, this study analyzes how municipalities in coastal Jiangsu Province have engaged in the land-dominated urbanization process, and the developmental landscape that has emerged from the new approach toward local public finance. Land development has not functioned simply as a passive outcome of urbanization, but has been actively pursued by local governments as a means of revenue generation to finance local economic growth. An inverse correlation is found between the growth of land conveyance income and the level of the regional economies in China's administrative hierarchy. We call for greater attention to be directed to the interrelationship between land development, local public finance, and urbanization in the ongoing transformation of the Chinese political economy.
[21] Qun W, Li Y, Yan S.

The incentives of China's urban land finance

[J]. Land Use Policy, 2015, 42(3): 432-442.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.08.015      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

Land grant premiums and land tax revenues have become two major sources of fiscal revenue for city governments in China. This type of fiscal revenue strategy for city governments is generally referred to as “land finance”, and it has drawn increasing research attention in recent years. This paper explores the institutional causes of the “land finance” strategy of city governments in China. We first analyze the institutional foundation of “land finance” (including China's urban land use system and land expropriation system). We then propose two hypotheses about the institutional causes of “land finance”. The first hypothesis is that the current system of fiscal decentralization is a major reason city governments choose the “land finance” fiscal strategy. The second hypothesis is that under the current personnel control system, which uses local economic performance as the most important indicator for evaluating local government officials, the competition between city governments to promote local economic growth is another major reason city governments choose the “land finance” fiscal strategy. We test the hypotheses by estimating econometric models using data for 31 provincial-level regions for the period 1999–2008. The empirical results suggest that fiscal decentralization and competition between city governments to promote economic growth are two major causes of “land finance”.
[22] Liu C H, Song W X, Zhou C.

Unsuccessful urban governance of brownfield land redevelopment: A lesson from the toxic soil event in Changzhou, China

[J]. Sustainability, 2017, 9(5): 824-838.

https://doi.org/10.3390/su9050824      URL      [本文引用: 1]     

[23] 吴启焰, 曾文.

基于组织与机制的“地王”现象政治经济解析

[J].地理研究, 2011, 30(10): 1847-1860.

https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2011100011      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

As a phenomenon of urban political economy, urban primelot is an inevitable consequence of the development of urban political economy in China recently. Firstly, this paper reviews the theory of urban political economy at home and abroad; then explains the phenomenon of primelot through theories of urban regime and growth machine by analyzing the mechanism of each interest group behind this setting. It reveals that urban primelot is an urban political economy aftermath of the interactions between different political economy groups in the area of land development. This study also indicates that there are four features in this urban setting. (1) Local government is the core in this growth coalition that dominates other parts or agents/agencies, for the local offices need not care too much about their parochial civilian as well as their superior in Chinese appointed bureaucracy system. (2) The central government not only has the absolute, but final macro controls over the growth coalition as well, however, these leaders are hesitating to disorganize the local growth machines or coalitions since it may jeopardize national economic locomotive which has been lasting for over three decades since Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening up policy started in 1978. (3) Growth coalition and anti-growth coalition constitute a kind of cooperate-collide continuum. The more peripheral individuals or organizations who are distributed away from the center of core-benefit in the building of growth machines might be more inclined to throw themselves into the lap of anti-growth coalition. (4) The category of urban growth machines or urban regimes might differentiate within the development of national citizenship in historical scale and the economic capacity of local governments in geographical scale. In the areas open wider to the ourside world, such as Beijing and Shanghai, the municipalities would rather build somewhat concessionary regimes/federalist regime than conserving regime/elitist entrepreneurial regime in which the local governments are hungry for development capital and dream for achievements. Therefore, according to the structure of building, dynamic machine and self-organization of growth coalitions, the nationalization process of land market might be necessary to disconnect the coalition through pumping more investment capital into local authorities from the central government or deducing the social consumption responsibility of local governments by the central government.

[Wu Qiyan, Zeng Wen.

A perspective of prime lot on urban political economy: The buildings of urban regime and growth machine

. Geographical Research, 2011, 30(10): 1847-1860.]

https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2011100011      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

As a phenomenon of urban political economy, urban primelot is an inevitable consequence of the development of urban political economy in China recently. Firstly, this paper reviews the theory of urban political economy at home and abroad; then explains the phenomenon of primelot through theories of urban regime and growth machine by analyzing the mechanism of each interest group behind this setting. It reveals that urban primelot is an urban political economy aftermath of the interactions between different political economy groups in the area of land development. This study also indicates that there are four features in this urban setting. (1) Local government is the core in this growth coalition that dominates other parts or agents/agencies, for the local offices need not care too much about their parochial civilian as well as their superior in Chinese appointed bureaucracy system. (2) The central government not only has the absolute, but final macro controls over the growth coalition as well, however, these leaders are hesitating to disorganize the local growth machines or coalitions since it may jeopardize national economic locomotive which has been lasting for over three decades since Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening up policy started in 1978. (3) Growth coalition and anti-growth coalition constitute a kind of cooperate-collide continuum. The more peripheral individuals or organizations who are distributed away from the center of core-benefit in the building of growth machines might be more inclined to throw themselves into the lap of anti-growth coalition. (4) The category of urban growth machines or urban regimes might differentiate within the development of national citizenship in historical scale and the economic capacity of local governments in geographical scale. In the areas open wider to the ourside world, such as Beijing and Shanghai, the municipalities would rather build somewhat concessionary regimes/federalist regime than conserving regime/elitist entrepreneurial regime in which the local governments are hungry for development capital and dream for achievements. Therefore, according to the structure of building, dynamic machine and self-organization of growth coalitions, the nationalization process of land market might be necessary to disconnect the coalition through pumping more investment capital into local authorities from the central government or deducing the social consumption responsibility of local governments by the central government.
[24] 宋伟轩, 刘春卉.

长三角一体化区域城市商品住宅价格分异机理研究

[J].地理研究, 2018, 37(1): 92-102.

URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

城市住宅价格及其空间差异是21世纪以来引起城市地理学者持续关注的热点问题。以长三角135个区县为研究对象,在通过分异度指数测度发现2014—2016年各区县商品房价差异增大的基础上,以商品房单位面积成交均价为因变量,提取16项房价影响因素为自变量,通过逐步回归和地理加权回归进行定量分析。研究发现:高校资源、经济密度、房产政策、经济实力、公共服务投入、高端从业者占比和产业结构7项指标对房价分异的影响最显著,而各因素对区域内房价的影响程度均具有显著的空间不稳定性。进而,提出房价是城市经济、人力、社会和行政等资源丰度的货币化表达,区域房价分异是城市支配资源能力差异的综合反映,其中行政资源在各类资源中占据主导地位。由此判断,长三角各区县房价在短时期内较难实现“俱乐部收敛”,沪宁杭等核心城市与外围地区的房价差距可能会继续扩大。

[Song Weixuan, Liu Chunhui.

The price differentiation mechanism of commercialhousing in the Yangtze River Delta

. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(1): 92-102.]

URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

城市住宅价格及其空间差异是21世纪以来引起城市地理学者持续关注的热点问题。以长三角135个区县为研究对象,在通过分异度指数测度发现2014—2016年各区县商品房价差异增大的基础上,以商品房单位面积成交均价为因变量,提取16项房价影响因素为自变量,通过逐步回归和地理加权回归进行定量分析。研究发现:高校资源、经济密度、房产政策、经济实力、公共服务投入、高端从业者占比和产业结构7项指标对房价分异的影响最显著,而各因素对区域内房价的影响程度均具有显著的空间不稳定性。进而,提出房价是城市经济、人力、社会和行政等资源丰度的货币化表达,区域房价分异是城市支配资源能力差异的综合反映,其中行政资源在各类资源中占据主导地位。由此判断,长三角各区县房价在短时期内较难实现“俱乐部收敛”,沪宁杭等核心城市与外围地区的房价差距可能会继续扩大。
[25] Wu J, Gyourko J, Deng Y.

Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets

[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2012, 42(3): 531-543.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2011.03.003      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

High and rising prices in Chinese housing markets have attracted global attention. Price-to-rent ratios in Beijing and seven other large markets across the country have increased by 30% to 70% since the beginning of 2007. Current price-to-rent ratios imply very low user costs of no more than 2%鈥3% of house value. Very high expected capital gains appear necessary to justify such low user costs of owning. Our calculations suggest that even modest declines in expected appreciation would lead to large price declines of over 40% in markets such as Beijing, absent offsetting rent increases or other countervailing factors. Price-to-income ratios also are at their highest levels ever in Beijing and select other markets, but urban income growth has outpaced price appreciation in major markets off the coast. Much of the increase in prices is occurring in land values. Using data from the local land auction market in Beijing, we are able to produce a constant quality land price index for that city. Real, constant quality land values have increased by nearly 800% since the first quarter of 2003, with half that rise occurring over the past two years. State-owned enterprises controlled by the central government have played an important role in this increase, as our analysis shows they paid 27% more than other bidders for an otherwise equivalent land parcel.
[26] 吴福象, 姜凤珍.

租售比、房价收入比与房地产市场调控——基于区际差异化市场比较的实证分析

[J].当代财经,2012(6): 80-88.

URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

利用租售比、房价收入比指标综合评价我国各区域房地产市场的比价效应意义重大。研究发现:我国的高房价对住房租赁市场有倒逼作用和漫延趋势,租金相对于房价的偏离导致住房租赁市场难以有效支撑住房买卖市场;各线城市房价收入比存在差异,不同收入群体房价收入比存在着悖论并有加剧的趋势。因此,政府必须通过控制房价上涨以切断高房价向人口密集区二手房租赁市场漫延的通道,完善由政府保障、政府支持和市场提供构成的三级住房模式以及收入分配机制,引导市民合理的住房消费观,培植健康的住房租赁市场。

[Wu Fuxiang, Jiang Fengzhen.

Price-to-rent ratio, housing price-to-income ratio and real estate market regulation: An empirical analysis based on the comparison between regional market differences

. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2012(6): 80-88.]

URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

利用租售比、房价收入比指标综合评价我国各区域房地产市场的比价效应意义重大。研究发现:我国的高房价对住房租赁市场有倒逼作用和漫延趋势,租金相对于房价的偏离导致住房租赁市场难以有效支撑住房买卖市场;各线城市房价收入比存在差异,不同收入群体房价收入比存在着悖论并有加剧的趋势。因此,政府必须通过控制房价上涨以切断高房价向人口密集区二手房租赁市场漫延的通道,完善由政府保障、政府支持和市场提供构成的三级住房模式以及收入分配机制,引导市民合理的住房消费观,培植健康的住房租赁市场。
[27] Harvey D.Spaces of global capitalism: Towards a theory of uneven geographical development[M]. London: Verso Press, 2006.

[本文引用: 2]     

[28] Rerat P, Lees L.

Spatial capital, gentrification and mobility: Evidence from Swiss core cities

. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 2011, 36(1): 126-142.

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5661.2010.00404.x      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

In this paper we are critical of the fact that the gentrification literature has moved away from discussions about the reclaiming of locational advantage as a marker of gentrifiers’ social distinction within the middle classes. We begin the process of re/theorising locational advantage as ‘spatial capital’ focusing on the mobility practices of new-build gentrifiers in Swiss core cities. Gentrification is a relatively new process in Swiss cities and is dominated by new-build developments in central city areas. We focus on two case studies: Neuch09tel and the Zurich West area of Zurich. We show that Swiss new-build gentrifiers have sought locational advantage in the central city, and in so doing have gained the ‘spatial capital’ that they need to negotiate and cope with dual career households and the restrictive job markets of Swiss cities. The mobility practices of these gentrifiers show how they are both hyper-mobile and hyper-fixed, they are mobile and rooted/fixed.
[29] 宋伟轩,刘春卉,汪毅,.

基于“租差”理论的城市居住空间中产阶层化研究——以南京内城为例

[J].地理学报,2017,72(12): 2115-2130.

https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201712001      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

中产阶层化是城市居住空间分异研究的前沿领域,而"租差"是解读中产阶层化现象的核心概念。通过对Smith"租差"模型的借鉴与修正,提出中国政治经济制度转轨背景下,"租差"是由土地公有和房屋贬值产生的"实际租差"和房地产持续快速增值产生的"预期租差"两部分组成。在此基础上,以南京内城和典型中产阶层化区域为例,利用2001-2011年间房屋拆迁及补偿、土地出让与利用方式转变、住宅价格变动等数据,通过刻画城市更新运动中"租差"扩大与资本化实现、物质空间环境改善、邻里社会结构跃升和阶层置换过程,分析南京内城中产阶层化现象和"租差"的核心驱动作用。最后在揭示中产阶层化作为深度城市化手段和空间再生产策略的同时,批评其对城市传统文化的"创造性破坏",以及"租差"收益再分配中对被拆迁贫困群体的多重剥夺问题。

[Song Weixuan, Liu Chunhui, Wang Yi et al.

Rent gap and gentrification in the inner city of Nanjing

. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(12): 2115-2130.]

https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201712001      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

中产阶层化是城市居住空间分异研究的前沿领域,而"租差"是解读中产阶层化现象的核心概念。通过对Smith"租差"模型的借鉴与修正,提出中国政治经济制度转轨背景下,"租差"是由土地公有和房屋贬值产生的"实际租差"和房地产持续快速增值产生的"预期租差"两部分组成。在此基础上,以南京内城和典型中产阶层化区域为例,利用2001-2011年间房屋拆迁及补偿、土地出让与利用方式转变、住宅价格变动等数据,通过刻画城市更新运动中"租差"扩大与资本化实现、物质空间环境改善、邻里社会结构跃升和阶层置换过程,分析南京内城中产阶层化现象和"租差"的核心驱动作用。最后在揭示中产阶层化作为深度城市化手段和空间再生产策略的同时,批评其对城市传统文化的"创造性破坏",以及"租差"收益再分配中对被拆迁贫困群体的多重剥夺问题。
[30] Smith N.

Toward a theory of gentrification: A back to the city movement by capital not people

[J].Journal of the American Planning Association,1979, 45(4): 538-548.

https://doi.org/10.1080/01944367908977002      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

Abstract Consumer sovereignty hypotheses dominate explanations of gentrification but data on the number of suburbanites returning to the city casts doubt on this hypothesis. In fact, gentrification is an expected product of the relatively unhampered operation of the land and housing markets. The economic depreciation of capital invested in nineteenth century inner-city neighborhoods and the simultaneous rise in potential ground rent levels produces the possibility of profitable redevelopment. Although the very apparent social characteristics of deteriorated neighborhoods would discourage redevelopment, the hidden economic characteristics may well be favorable. Whether gentrification is a fundamental restructuring of urban space depends not on where new inhabitants come from but on how much productive capital returns to the area from the suburbs.
[31] Smith N.

The new urban frontier: Gentrification and the revanchist city

[M]. London and New York: Routledge, 1996.

[本文引用: 1]     

[32] 冯长春, 李维瑄, 赵蕃蕃.

轨道交通对其沿线商品住宅价格的影响分析:以北京地铁5号线为例

[J].地理学报,2011, 66(8): 1055-1062.

https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201108005      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

The paper, taking the Subway Line Five in Beijing as an example, studies the effect of rail transit on adjacent commodity housing prices. Firstly, based on results of previous studies and field study of Beijing Subway Line Five, our study areas are confined to a 2-km radius from subway line. Moreover, through analyzing commodity housing prices and their influences, a system of impact factors that could most possibly make a difference on commodity housing prices is set up. Those ten influencing factors include the shortest distance from housing project to the nearest subway station, distance from housing project to city-level commercial center, the number of bus lines within 1 km of the project, floor area ratio of the project, whether there is a key primary and secondary schools within 1 km of the project, whether there is a regular primary and secondary schools, whether there is a hospital, whether there is a park and its decoration condition as well as property type. Secondly, through conducting mean difference significant test on the dummy variables, we can exclude three of them which prove to have no significant impact on housing prices, including the number of key primary and secondary schools, ordinary schools, and parks within 1 km of housing projects. Thereafter, a multiple regression model is built to make correlation analysis of commodity housing price and the other seven influencing factors. Finally, after dealing with a total of 193 sample data, the result of the regression model shows that rail transit has the greatest effect on adjacent commodity housing price. Based on this result, we propose that real estate development along rail transit should fully consider the great effect that rail transit has on commodity housing price.

[Feng Changchun, Li Weixuan, Zhao Fanfan.

Influence of rail transit on nearby commodity housing prices: A case study of Beijing Subway Line Five

. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(8): 1055-1062.]

https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201108005      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

The paper, taking the Subway Line Five in Beijing as an example, studies the effect of rail transit on adjacent commodity housing prices. Firstly, based on results of previous studies and field study of Beijing Subway Line Five, our study areas are confined to a 2-km radius from subway line. Moreover, through analyzing commodity housing prices and their influences, a system of impact factors that could most possibly make a difference on commodity housing prices is set up. Those ten influencing factors include the shortest distance from housing project to the nearest subway station, distance from housing project to city-level commercial center, the number of bus lines within 1 km of the project, floor area ratio of the project, whether there is a key primary and secondary schools within 1 km of the project, whether there is a regular primary and secondary schools, whether there is a hospital, whether there is a park and its decoration condition as well as property type. Secondly, through conducting mean difference significant test on the dummy variables, we can exclude three of them which prove to have no significant impact on housing prices, including the number of key primary and secondary schools, ordinary schools, and parks within 1 km of housing projects. Thereafter, a multiple regression model is built to make correlation analysis of commodity housing price and the other seven influencing factors. Finally, after dealing with a total of 193 sample data, the result of the regression model shows that rail transit has the greatest effect on adjacent commodity housing price. Based on this result, we propose that real estate development along rail transit should fully consider the great effect that rail transit has on commodity housing price.
[33] 刘康, 吴群, 王佩.

城市轨道交通对住房价格影响的计量分析——以南京市地铁1、2号线为例

[J].资源科学,2015,37(1): 133-141.

URL      Magsci      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

<p>本文从理论和实证角度,分析验证了城市轨道交通对沿线站点住房价格的影响。首先通过理论分析提出假说,然后基于特征价格方法构建计量分析模型,利用南京市地铁1、2号线站点附近2km范围内二手楼盘数据,实证分析了城市轨道交通地铁对沿线站点住房价格的影响。结果表明:①城市轨道交通对沿线站点住房价格产生了显著的增值效应,不同距离范围影响程度不同,距地铁站点500m以内住房价格比500m以外高出14.3%,1 000m以内住房价格比1 000m以外高出8.9%,1 500m以内住房价格比1 500m以外高出3.9%,当距离范围超过1 500m后,增值效应在统计上不显著;②轨道交通对住房价格的影响程度与距地铁站点直线距离存在着显著的倒&ldquo;U&rdquo;形关系,影响程度随距离先增大后减小,在距地铁站点大约320m时影响程度最大;③轨道交通对沿线站点住房价格的影响程度具有显著的分市场效应,对郊区市场的影响程度要远大于主城区市场。</p>

[Liu Kang, Wu Qun, Wang Pei.

Econometric analysis of the impacts of rail transit on property values: The number 1 and 2 lines in Nanjing

. Resources Science, 2015, 37(1): 133-141.]

URL      Magsci      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

<p>本文从理论和实证角度,分析验证了城市轨道交通对沿线站点住房价格的影响。首先通过理论分析提出假说,然后基于特征价格方法构建计量分析模型,利用南京市地铁1、2号线站点附近2km范围内二手楼盘数据,实证分析了城市轨道交通地铁对沿线站点住房价格的影响。结果表明:①城市轨道交通对沿线站点住房价格产生了显著的增值效应,不同距离范围影响程度不同,距地铁站点500m以内住房价格比500m以外高出14.3%,1 000m以内住房价格比1 000m以外高出8.9%,1 500m以内住房价格比1 500m以外高出3.9%,当距离范围超过1 500m后,增值效应在统计上不显著;②轨道交通对住房价格的影响程度与距地铁站点直线距离存在着显著的倒&ldquo;U&rdquo;形关系,影响程度随距离先增大后减小,在距地铁站点大约320m时影响程度最大;③轨道交通对沿线站点住房价格的影响程度具有显著的分市场效应,对郊区市场的影响程度要远大于主城区市场。</p>
[34] Jim C Y, Chen W Y.

Impacts of urban environmental elements on residential housing prices in Guangzhou (China)

[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2006, 78(4): 422-434.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2005.12.003      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

The amenity value provided by urban green spaces, water bodies and good environmental quality is difficult to assess and incorporate into urban planning and development. Developers and governments in China hitherto have seldom objectively factored these attributes into property pricing and associated decisions. The hedonic pricing method offers an appropriate approach to gauge such external benefits which contribute to real-estate transaction prices. This study explored the impacts of key environmental elements with a bearing on residential housing value in Guangzhou, including window orientation, green-space view, floor height, proximity to wooded areas and water bodies, and exposure to traffic noise. Four large private housing estates composed of multi-storied blocks with similar design and price bracket, catering to the mass property market, were sampled. Transaction price data and structural attributes of 652 dwelling units were acquired directly from developers. Data on environmental attributes were collected in the field. Two functional hedonic pricing method models, linear and semi-log, were constructed. The semi-log model offered comparatively stronger explanatory power and more reliable estimation. High floor on the multi-storey tenement blocks contributed implicitly 9.2% to the selling price. View of green spaces and proximity to water bodies raised housing price, contributing notably at 7.1% and 13.2%, respectively. Windows with a southern orientation with or without complementary eastern or northern views added 1% to the price. Proximity to nearby wooded area without public access was not significant, expressing the pragmatic mindset in the hedonic behavior. Exposure to traffic noise did not influence willingness-to-pay, implying tolerance of the chronic environmental nuisance in the compact city. The study demonstrates that hedonic pricing method could be applied in the Chinese context with an increasingly expanding and privatized property market. It could inform the decisions of policy makers and property developers concerning land selling and buying, land conversion, property development, urban nature conservation, and design of ecological green-space networks.
[35] 温海珍, 李旭宁, 张凌.

城市景观对住宅价格的影响: 以杭州市为例

[J].地理研究, 2012, 31(10): 1806-1814.

https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012100007      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

Urban landscape areas which provide amenities for people are generally recreational places in life and have great impact on the life quality in cities.However, the benefit of urban landscape is implicit, which makes it difficult to estimate the value of the view amenity in monetary form.The hedonic price methods are widely used in empirical research by domestic and foreign scholars.In this paper, 25 explanatory variables are selected to build a hedonic price model in four dimensions of building, neighborhood, location, and landscape.This paper assesses the external effects of various types of landscape on housing price.The sample is made up of 2795 valid house data in Hangzhou.The results indicate that there is an inverse relationship between the house price and its distance from the West Lake and the park, and the park size is positively correlated to house price.Increasing the distance of 1% to the West Lake or to the park decreased the house price by 0. 240% or 0.036%, and increasing the size of the nearest park by 1% leads to a 0.012% price increase.What's more, the plazas, mountain views and the Qiantang River also have apositive effect on the house price within a certain distance.

[Wen Haizhen, Li Xuning, Zhang Ling.

Impacts of the urban landscape on the housing pricing: A case study in Hangzhou

. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(10): 1806-1814.]

https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012100007      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

Urban landscape areas which provide amenities for people are generally recreational places in life and have great impact on the life quality in cities.However, the benefit of urban landscape is implicit, which makes it difficult to estimate the value of the view amenity in monetary form.The hedonic price methods are widely used in empirical research by domestic and foreign scholars.In this paper, 25 explanatory variables are selected to build a hedonic price model in four dimensions of building, neighborhood, location, and landscape.This paper assesses the external effects of various types of landscape on housing price.The sample is made up of 2795 valid house data in Hangzhou.The results indicate that there is an inverse relationship between the house price and its distance from the West Lake and the park, and the park size is positively correlated to house price.Increasing the distance of 1% to the West Lake or to the park decreased the house price by 0. 240% or 0.036%, and increasing the size of the nearest park by 1% leads to a 0.012% price increase.What's more, the plazas, mountain views and the Qiantang River also have apositive effect on the house price within a certain distance.
[36] 陈庚, 朱道林, 苏亚艺, .

大型城市公园绿地对住宅价格的影响——以北京市奥林匹克森林公园为例

[J].资源科学,2015, 37(11): 2202-2210.

URL      Magsci      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

为深入分析大型城市公园绿地对住宅价格的外部效应和影响机理,量化公园绿地作为公共物品的空间配置价值,本文采用半对数特征价格模型,以北京市奥林匹克森林公园为例,从不同方向、不同距离分析大型城市公园绿地对住宅价格的定量影响。研究表明:①奥林匹克森林公园对周边住宅的外部效应存在方向异质性,具体表现为不同方向上的住宅增值系数、影响范围、边际价格等方面存在较大的差异;②奥林匹克森林公园对周边住宅的外部效应存在距离异质性,住宅增值系数整体上与到公园距离成反比,且在不同距离范围内分化明显;③因公园绿地的组成要素、可达性及周边区域条件的不同,不同方向、不同范围的公园绿地作为公共物品所提供的功能效用互有差异,住宅增值效应也随之改变。此外,本文深入探究了大型城市公园绿地对住宅价格的影响机理,发现随着到公园绿地距离的增大,住宅增值效应不断减弱,且下降速度逐渐减缓,可为房地产开发、市场交易评估、公园绿地建设等提供借鉴。

[Chen Geng, Zhu Daolin, Su Yayi et al.

The effects of large-scale urban park green spaces on residential prices exemplified by Olympic Forest Park in Beijing

. Resources Science, 2015, 37(11): 2202-2210.]

URL      Magsci      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

为深入分析大型城市公园绿地对住宅价格的外部效应和影响机理,量化公园绿地作为公共物品的空间配置价值,本文采用半对数特征价格模型,以北京市奥林匹克森林公园为例,从不同方向、不同距离分析大型城市公园绿地对住宅价格的定量影响。研究表明:①奥林匹克森林公园对周边住宅的外部效应存在方向异质性,具体表现为不同方向上的住宅增值系数、影响范围、边际价格等方面存在较大的差异;②奥林匹克森林公园对周边住宅的外部效应存在距离异质性,住宅增值系数整体上与到公园距离成反比,且在不同距离范围内分化明显;③因公园绿地的组成要素、可达性及周边区域条件的不同,不同方向、不同范围的公园绿地作为公共物品所提供的功能效用互有差异,住宅增值效应也随之改变。此外,本文深入探究了大型城市公园绿地对住宅价格的影响机理,发现随着到公园绿地距离的增大,住宅增值效应不断减弱,且下降速度逐渐减缓,可为房地产开发、市场交易评估、公园绿地建设等提供借鉴。
[37] 李祥, 高波, 王维娜.

公共服务资本化与房价租金背离——基于南京市微观数据的实证研究

[J].经济评论,2012(5): 78-88.

URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

城市的宜居性是吸引劳动力流入的重要因素,而公共服务水平、自然环境与气候条件等则是城市宜居性的主要体现。作为政府提供的主要公共物品,住宅所享有的公共服务水平必将影响居民对其的消费意愿。本文利用南京市江南八区的调查数据,构建特征价格模型,考察住宅特征变量、公共服务水平对其销售与租赁价格的影响。实证结果表明:(1)住宅物理特征对其销售价格与租赁价格的影响存在差异,房间数目、大厅数目等特征变量的提高将显著提高销售价格、降低租赁价格;(2)公共服务对住宅销售价格与租赁价格的影响大致相同,四类公共服务中,教育公共服务对住宅销售价格与租赁价格的影响最大;(3)政府对城市核心地带公共服务的过多投入并不会导致当地房价租金比提高,相反,对城市边缘地带公共服务投入不足则将使得当地房价租金比提高。因此,政府需要推进城市各区域之间基本公共服务的均等化。

[Li Xiang, Gao Bo, Wang Weina.

Capitalization of public services and deviation of housing price and rent: An empirical research based on micro data of Nanjing

. Economic Review, 2012(5): 78-88.]

URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

城市的宜居性是吸引劳动力流入的重要因素,而公共服务水平、自然环境与气候条件等则是城市宜居性的主要体现。作为政府提供的主要公共物品,住宅所享有的公共服务水平必将影响居民对其的消费意愿。本文利用南京市江南八区的调查数据,构建特征价格模型,考察住宅特征变量、公共服务水平对其销售与租赁价格的影响。实证结果表明:(1)住宅物理特征对其销售价格与租赁价格的影响存在差异,房间数目、大厅数目等特征变量的提高将显著提高销售价格、降低租赁价格;(2)公共服务对住宅销售价格与租赁价格的影响大致相同,四类公共服务中,教育公共服务对住宅销售价格与租赁价格的影响最大;(3)政府对城市核心地带公共服务的过多投入并不会导致当地房价租金比提高,相反,对城市边缘地带公共服务投入不足则将使得当地房价租金比提高。因此,政府需要推进城市各区域之间基本公共服务的均等化。
[38] 梁军辉, 林坚, 吴佳雨.

北京市公共服务设施配置对住房价格的影响

[J].城市发展研究, 2016, 23(9): 82-87.

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-3862.2016.09.012      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

以2015年北京市六环内的居住小区二手房房价为研究对象,应用基于特征价格的空间计量模型,研究北京市公共服务设施配置对房价的影响并提出相应建议。研究结果表明:在六环全域和分环线区域分析中,学区房显著影响房价,总体上学区房平均价格显著高于非学区房价格(约10%),这表明合理配置城市优质教育资源至关重要;地铁站点、商场、休闲娱乐设施等因素对房价的影响随距离增加而减弱;居住小区的绿化率和房价呈正相关关系。而依靠市场调节的超市、便利店等基本生活设施对房价影响并不显著;医院对房价影响的不显著是因为北京现有医疗机构服务对象已不再局限于本地居民,应按照疏解非首都功能、推动京津冀协同发展的要求,布局优化调整;公共汽车等出行方式对房价的总体影响并不显著,表明优化公共交通资源配置、促进公共交通出行是北京城市发展应该努力追求的方向。

[Liang Junhui, Lin Jian, Wu Jiayu.

Study on the influence of the allocation of public service facilities on housing price in Beijing city

. Urban Development Studies, 2016, 23(9): 82-87.]

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-3862.2016.09.012      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

以2015年北京市六环内的居住小区二手房房价为研究对象,应用基于特征价格的空间计量模型,研究北京市公共服务设施配置对房价的影响并提出相应建议。研究结果表明:在六环全域和分环线区域分析中,学区房显著影响房价,总体上学区房平均价格显著高于非学区房价格(约10%),这表明合理配置城市优质教育资源至关重要;地铁站点、商场、休闲娱乐设施等因素对房价的影响随距离增加而减弱;居住小区的绿化率和房价呈正相关关系。而依靠市场调节的超市、便利店等基本生活设施对房价影响并不显著;医院对房价影响的不显著是因为北京现有医疗机构服务对象已不再局限于本地居民,应按照疏解非首都功能、推动京津冀协同发展的要求,布局优化调整;公共汽车等出行方式对房价的总体影响并不显著,表明优化公共交通资源配置、促进公共交通出行是北京城市发展应该努力追求的方向。
[39] Wu Q Y, Zhang X L, Waley P.

Jiaoyufication: When gentrification goes to school in the Chinese inner city

[J].Urban Studies, 2016, 53(16): 3510-3526.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098015613234      URL      [本文引用: 1]     

[40] Wu Q Y, Zhang X L, Waley P.

When Neil Smith met Pierre Bourdieu in Nanjing, China: Bringing cultural capital into rent gap theory

[J].Housing Studies, 2017, 32(5): 659-677.

https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2016.1228849      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

In this paper, we expand rent-gap theory in conceptual and territorial terms. Hitherto, the theory has, as Neil Smith intended, been used in an economic sense; we argue here, borrowing ideas from Pierre Bourdieu, that in the competitive environment of Chinese education, a rent gap in cultural capital is created which can later be converted into economic capital. The process we identify is triggered by the purchase of an apartment in a catchment zone, crucial to obtaining entry into a prestigious ‘key’ school in most Chinese cities. This leads to apartments changing hands for high prices despite generally being old and dilapidated. The rent gap in cultural capital occurs when parents forego potential short-term gains to capitalize on the long-term benefits of a superior education. This is contrasted here with a somewhat more conventional scenario, where property developers exploit a rent gap on suburban apartments built in the catchment of branch ‘key’ schools.
[41] Song W X, Wu Q Y.

Gentrification and residential differentiation in Nanjing, China

[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2010, 20(6): 568-576.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-010-0432-2      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

在中国的机构的环境相当显然在现代社会经济的转变期间变化了。由本地管理并且由出售力量开车,城市的社会空间在城市的土地和房地产政策的改革以后被再分配。城市的更新为宽微分租金做并且因此, gentrification 正在发生在中国。这份报纸在中国分析背景和 gentrification 的机构的环境,并且进一步在南京的情况中讨论这个过程,特征和进化机制,通过在 1998 鈥?期间造的 1 075 个居住社区的属性的调查 008 在宏水平,并且会见居民并且在微水平在 6 个不同、典型的社区分析问询表。作为双向相互作用的一堂 socio 空间的功课, gentrification 被划分成孵化,出现和快开发的 3 个阶段,根据里程碑事件和政策改革在上的时间在南京的土地租用在社会经济的转变期间。以在南京的 gentrification 的 socio 空间的特征,在城市的更新的轨道下面的 gentrification 过程让城市的社会空间介绍新圆层结构;相当很多个 gated 社区的上升导致社会空间的破碎和公共空间的私有化;现代社区的管理模式和生活方式的变化加重了 gentrified 社区的邻居关系的不在乎。基于这研究的实验证据,这份报纸显示那 gentrification 关于空间与时间的顺序,主导的力量,实现的路径和空间表示在中国和西方的国家之间是相当不同的,并且它进一步揭示在现在的阶段在中国发展的 gentrification 的动态机制。
[42] Harvey D.

The urban process under capitalism: A framework for analysis

[J]. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 1978, 2(1-4): 101-131.

https://doi.org/10.1111/ijur.1978.2.issue-1-3      URL      [本文引用: 1]     

[43] Harvey D.

From managerialism to entrepreneurialism: The transformation in urban governance in late capitalism

[J].Geografiska Annaler, 1989, 71B(1): 3-17.

https://doi.org/10.2307/490503      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

In recent years, urban governance has become increasingly preoccupied with the exploration of new ways in which to foster and encourage local development and employment growth. Such an entrepreneurial stance contrasts with the managerial practices of earlier decades which primarily focussed on the local provision of services, facilities and benefits to urban populations. This paper explores the context of this shift from managerialism to entrepreneurialism in urban governance and seeks to show how mechanisms of inter-urban competition shape outcomes and generate macroeconomic consequences. The relations between urban change and economic development are thereby brought into focus in a period characterised by considerable economic and political instability.
[44] Soja E W.Postmodern geographies: The reassertion of space in critical social theory[M]. London: Verso Press, 1989.

[本文引用: 1]     

[45] Smith N.Uneven development: Nature, capital, and the production of space[M]. Athens: University of Georgia Press, 2010.

[本文引用: 1]     

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