SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA ›› 2004, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (6): 698-703.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2004.06.698

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Analysis of the Granger Causality Between the Scouring and Silting and the Coefficient of Incoming Sediments of the Lancang River

ZOU Gao-Lu, LUO Huai-Liang   

  1. Faculty of Resources and Environment, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610066
  • Received:2003-10-28 Revised:2004-01-07 Online:2004-11-20 Published:2004-11-20

Abstract: The Lanchang-Meikon River is an important international river. In recent years, the basin of this river has gradually become the region where some countries or regioanl groups, located along both of its banks, have stressed research and development and invested a lot. The river is one of the most active factors in the environment of physical geography of the Lanchang River basin. Water flow and its bedload have important impact on shipment development, construction of water power stations, and land use. There Thus, a placement of stress on research of the impact of changes in the natural incoming sediments on the scouring and silting changes of the Lanchang River will provide an important basis for its terrace development. Using Granger causality model, the ADF time series stability test technique, and the available on-site collected data within a period of 23 years, this study conducts an analysis of whether or not changes in the incoming sediments of the Lanchang River will lead to scouring and silting changes. This study finds that: (1) the variable of the yearly coefficients of incoming sediments of the Lanchang River is a non-stability time series process; but in the contrary, the variable of the yearly scouring and silting changes is a stability one; (2) there are no Granger causal relations, or predictive relations, found from the changes in the incoming sediments of the Lanchang River (Yunjinghong Section) to those in the scouring and silting. Thus, an increase (or decrease) in the coefficient of incoming sediments of the Lanchang River will uncertainly lead to an increase in the section silting (or an increase in the section scouring). This does not accord with the suggstion in the past research. Thus, we suggest that the former study's suggestion may be discussible.

CLC Number: 

  • K903