Li Tingzhu, Cao Junjie, Huang Xiaodong, Zhang Qiang, Qin Xionghe, Fan Fei
Accepted: 2026-10-09
The world is undergoing profound and accelerating changes unseen in a century, with intensifying major-power technological competition and rising geopolitical risks profoundly reshaping the spatial organization and development trajectory of R&D globalization. Drawing on global overseas R&D investment data and international sanctions data from 2003 to 2023, this study employs social network analysis, exploratory spatial analysis, and weighted exponential random graph models to systematically examine the evolutionary characteristics of the global overseas R&D investment network and the impact mechanisms of international sanctions. The findings reveal that: 1) Between 2003 and 2023, the global overseas R&D investment network expanded substantially and became increasingly interconnected, while showing divergent trends in centralization between investment origins and destinations, characterized by increasingly decentralized origins but relatively concentrated destinations. More recently, intensifying geopolitical pressures have contributed to network fragmentation and regionalization, accelerating a shift from global integration toward friendshoring and more geopolitically aligned R&D investment patterns. 2) Spatially, the network has developed a multilayered core-periphery structure centered on the United States, while maintaining a relatively stable triangular configuration among North America, Western Europe, and East Asia. Meanwhile, the increasing participation of emerging economies has enhanced the complexity and multipolarity of global R&D investment linkages. 3) International sanctions exert a dual and dynamic influence on the global overseas R&D investment network. They increase the likelihood of affected home countries investing abroad in R&D while reducing the attractiveness of sanctioned host countries to overseas R&D investment, although both effects tend to weaken over time. Meanwhile, endogenous self-organizing factors, such as network structure, and multidimensional external relational factors, including geographic, social, economic, and cognitive linkages, jointly drive network evolution. 4) The effects of international sanctions exhibit significant heterogeneity across sanction types. Economic sanctions discourage inward R&D investment while strengthening sanctioned countries' incentives to undertake overseas R&D investment, reflecting an outward-oriented response to external constraints. Military sanctions, by contrast, exert clear deterrent effects on both outward and inward R&D investment. Social sanctions, which impose relatively weaker constraints on economic and technological interactions, can enhance sanctioned countries' ability to attract overseas R&D investment. These findings deepen our understanding of the geopolitical restructuring of global innovation networks.