SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (10): 1207-1219.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1207

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Moderate-speed Growth:Sustainable Development of China's Economy

Da-dao LU()   

  1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101,China
  • Received:2015-09-16 Revised:2015-10-09 Online:2015-10-20 Published:2015-10-25

Abstract:

China’s national economy has experienced a long period of rapid growth, but prominent structural problems have already appeared. Instead of following the traditional research approach of investigating the speed of future economic growth through investment, consumption and export, this article analyzes the capacities of systems which support economic growth, including resource (energy), environment (bearing capacity) and the urbanization and development patterns on the basis of resources and environment. It includes seven aspects:It points out that the long period of high-speed-but-low-efficiency economic growth has led to the structural problems at the current stage. It analyzes the serious situation of China’s environmental pollution. It argues that excessive consumption of natural resources may bring about severe national security issues. It indicates that urbanization is the most important supporting factor of the high-speed economic development of our country.It holds that the development patterns of “world factory” of low-end products and relying on investment which have been practiced for a long period of time are important concepts and supports of the high-speed economic development of China. It also argues that China has taken full advantage of backwardness which has limits in fact. Finally, based on practice and international experience, it analyzes the relationships between the speed of economic growth and employment, the influence of the country, and economic transformation briefly. Based on these analyses, a meta-synthetic research is conducted and the following conclusions are arrived at: China’s economic development will enter a stage of moderate-speed growth rather quickly. The economic growth of a moderate speed will create significant opportunities and spaces for building economic superpower and achieving a harmonious society in China.

Key words: economic growth, supporting system, resources and environment, urbanization, development patterns, moderate-speed growth

CLC Number: 

  • F129.9