SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 456-463.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.04.456

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Dynamic Evolution and Control Approaches of Petroleum City's Economic System Vulnerability: A Case Study of Daqing City

Yan-ru YANG1,2, Shi-jun WANG1(), Xiao-hong CHEN3   

  1. 1.School of Geographical Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun , Jilin 130024, China
    2.College of Landscape Architecture, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150040, China
    3.College of Geographical Science, Harbin Normal University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150025, China
  • Received:2014-07-25 Revised:2014-12-05 Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-04-20

Abstract:

Petroleum city, as a special kind of human-land system with intense interactions between human activities and natural environment, has typical vulnerability characteristics. Based on the qualitative analysis for economic system vulnerability (ESV) of Daqing City, the article establishes indicators system and assessment model .Then the comprehensive index method , grey relational grade analysis and BP neural network model are used to assess the ESV. The article also predicts the evolution trend of ESV from 2014 to 2023. The results indicated that the ESV of Daqing City had shown a declining trend from 1996 to 2012 and in a relatively low level at present, with the vulnerability index dropping from 0.686 (1996) to 0.283 (2012) and sensitivity index increasing from 0.142 (1996) to 0.280 (2012). Compared with other petroleum cities ,the ESV of Daqing in 2012 was just lower than Karamay, while higher than other petroleum cities. The dominant factor of ESV is responsive ability. Grey relational grade analysis was used to further explore the degree of influence of each index on the development level of the ESV. The results showed that the ESV of Daqing was seriously affected by rigid industry structure and unreasonable investment structure. BP neural network model was used to predict the ESV on the basis of present situation. The results showed that the ESV of Daqing City will increase first and then decrease in the future ten years. According to the characteristics and causes, combining the evolution rules of ESV, this paper puts forward the evadable, antagonistic and adaptable control approaches.The evadable approache is that Daqing City should grasp the life cycle of the petroleum industry and accurately grasp the economic transition opportunity.The antagonistic approache is to extend the industrial chain and develop the petrochemical industry.The adaptable approache is to improve the new industries and urban economic function.These control approaches can provide theoretical basis for reducing the ESV of Daqing, and then achieve its economic transformation and sustainable development.

Key words: economic system, vulnerability, control, petroleum city

CLC Number: 

  • F407.22