中国城镇化影响能源消耗的效应分解及机制探析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.11.008

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explore effects of urbanization on energy consumption in China, the Spatial Dubin Model is used to analyze the influence of urbanization on energy intensity according to panel data in 2000-2012. After the spatial spillover effect is estimated, the total effects are decomposed to direct effects and indirect effects by partial differentiation. Results show that urbanization is an importance factor on the increase of energy intensity and the influence indicate obvious difference among three regions. Indirect effects of urbanization influencing energy intensity are significantly positive for all provinces. But direct effects are not obvious and present different patterns among three regions. Then theoretical mechanism of urbanization influencing energy consumption is analyzed. The influence of urbanization on energy consumption is the combined action of scale effects, technology effects, structure effects, stage effects and spatial effects. The direct effects of urbanization affecting energy consumption are the result of scale effects, technological effects, structural effects and stage effects, including direct and indirect paths. The indirect effects of urbanization affecting energy consumption are mainly derived from spillover effects between the regions. The results of this article show that urbanization plays an important role in the growth of energy consumption. Nowadays, Chinese government is accelerating the pace of urbanization, which may need more energy demand. Thus, studying the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption is very important to draw up urbanization planning and energy policy. Some recommendations are put forward to promote economic transformation and upgrading, accelerate the construction of ecological civilization. The following research will pay more attention to the nonlinear effects of urbanization on energy intensity and the effects of different types of city on energy consumption, which can provide constructing suggestions for government policy.

Key words: urbanization, energy intensity, spatial Dubin model

CLC Number:

K902

Kaiming Cheng, Yafei Zhang, Long Chen. Effects Decomposition and Theoretical Mechanism of Urbanization Influencing Energy Consumption in China[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(11): 1661-1669.

Figures/Tables 5

Fig.1

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Fig.2

References 34

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	时空固定效应模型	时空随机效应模型
Wald 空间滞后检验	64.2742^***	46.6791^***
LR 空间滞后检验	53.1110^***	40.1912^***
Wald 空间误差检验	27.3918^***	24.0885^***
LR 空间误差检验	26.6072^***	3.8348
Hausman 检验	71.6699^***

	全国	东部	中部	西部
W×Ln(E)	-1.9615^***	-1.1721^***	-0.9576^***	-1.1507^***
Ln(G)	-0.6876^***	-0.7360^***	0.3969	0.3948
Ln(U)	0.2007^**	1.1278^***	0.2521^*	0.4462
Ln(S)	0.9697^***	0.7553^***	0.2703	2.1174^***
Ln(T)	0.3282^**	0.0761	0.7493^**	0.8458^***
Ln(R)	0.0459^*	0.1818^***	-0.0244	-0.1065^*
Ln(F)	0.0086	-0.0360^**	0.0692	0.1244^***
Ln(P)	-0.1151	-0.6459^***	0.3416	0.4907^**
W×Ln(G)	-2.0793^***	-1.6439^***	-1.7210	3.9380^***
W×Ln(U)	1.9817^***	0.9605	-1.4664^**	2.2313
W×Ln(S)	2.5916^***	0.9506	3.4630^***	10.0163^***
W×Ln(T)	-0.7055	0.3750	3.0362^***	5.7403^***
W×Ln(R)	-0.3590^**	0.6741^***	0.0363	-0.5802^*
W×Ln(F)	-0.1898	0.0964	0.0841	0.1845
W×Ln(P)	0.4798	-0.3134	2.5937^**	2.4664^**
R²	0.9780	0.9900	0.9871	0.9829
Adj R²	0.2957	0.6673	0.3114	0.6192
Loglike	485.2595	241.1502	176.7132	197.9311

	自变量	全国	东部	中部	西部
总效应	Ln(G)	-0.9381^***	-1.1050^***	-0.7022	2.0247^**
	Ln(U)	0.7356^***	0.9689	-0.6332	1.3092
	Ln(S)	1.2159^***	0.7740^**	1.9378^***	5.6700^***
	Ln(T)	-0.1143	0.1822	1.9339^**	3.0734^***
	Ln(R)	-0.1098	0.3979^***	0.0043	-0.3311
	Ln(F)	-0.0613	0.0286	0.0803	0.1412
	Ln(P)	0.1350	-0.4570	1.5104^*	1.4336^*
直接效应	Ln(G)	-0.6470^***	-0.6161^***	0.8166^*	0.0433
	Ln(U)	0.0978	1.1791^**	0.5958^***	0.2899
	Ln(S)	0.9269^***	0.7470^***	0.3838^*	1.3572^***
	Ln(T)	0.4207^***	0.0208	0.2630	0.3737
	Ln(R)	0.0759^**	0.1101^*	-0.0365	-0.0624
	Ln(F)	0.0218	-0.0571^***	0.0664	0.1199^***
	Ln(P)	-0.1607	-0.7068^**	-0.1294	0.3106
间接效应	Ln(G)	-0.2911	-0.4889	-1.5188	1.9814^**
	Ln(U)	0.6379^**	0.2102	-1.2290^***	1.0193
	Ln(S)	0.2890	0.0270	2.3216^***	4.3128^***
	Ln(T)	-0.5350	0.1614	1.6709^**	2.6997^***
	Ln(R)	-0.1857^**	0.2878^**	0.0408	-0.2687
	Ln(F)	-0.0831	0.0857^*	0.0139	0.0214
	Ln(P)	0.2958	0.2497	1.6398^**	1.1230

Effects Decomposition and Theoretical Mechanism of Urbanization Influencing Energy Consumption in China

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