东北三省创新全要素生产率增长的时空特征及其发展趋势预测

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.02.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Among various different measures which can be used to make the promotion of regional economic development, the role of innovation cannot be ignored. Over the past 20 years, the proportion of the total number of researchers in the three northeastern provinces (including Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning) of China has dropped 6.6 percent. Besides, the R & D / GDP of the three northeastern provinces increased by only 0.09%, which is far below the national average (1.51%). According to the current researches, it can be found that the economic growth achieved through the innovation capacity in the northeastern provinces accounts for 49.3%, which indicates that innovation plays an important role during the process of promoting the economic development.Innovation has turned into more and more important for regional development in China. On the basis of the panel data of China ranging from 1995 to 2013, Malmquist index model was used to make the analysis on the spatial and temporal differences of innovation TFP in the three provinces of Northeastearn China. The PVAR model was constructed on decomposed data. The change trend of TFP and its decomposition inthese three provinces of Northeast Chinaareforecasted. In accordance with the above process, three conclusions can be made as follows:1) The innovation TFP growth speed of Northeast China is slightly higher than that of Western China while is lower than Central China and Eastern China. 2) From the inside of the three northeastern provinces, the innovation TFP of Jilin Province, which is driven by the improvement of the management level and the adjustment of the system (PEC), grew fastest from 1995 to 2013. Secondly, the major driving force of innovation TFP of Liaoning Province came from technology. However, its technological progress has been limited by the scale of innovation. The growth rate of innovation TFP in Heilongjiang Province is the slowest, which is mainly due to the limited growth rate of endogenous power (SEC, PTC, STC, PEC). At the same time, the result shows that the promotion of the system and management level in these three northeastern provinces is far greater than the technological progress and the enlargement of the scale. 3) Based on the forecast results, the three provinces in the Northeast innovation TFP growth rate may continue to slow down in the near future. From the perspective of unit changes, STC and SEC unit changes play the dominant roles in improving TFP of the three northeastern provinces. In terms of the degree of influence, the innovation of TFP in Northeast China is mainly affected by the change of PEC and STC.

Key words: innovation total factor productivity, Malmquist index, PVAR model, Northeast China

CLC Number:

F129.9

Zenglin Han, Jiaze Sun, Tianbao Liu, Fei Peng, Jingqiu Zhong. The Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Development Trend Forecast of Innovative TFP Growth in China’s Three Northeastern Provinces[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(2): 161-171.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Fig. 1

Table 2

Fig. 2

Table 3

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Fig. 3

Table 5

Table 6

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指数	Malmquist	PEC	PTC	SEC	STC
东北三省	1.091	1.003	1.108	1.041	1.005
东部	1.097	1.007	1.129	1.028	1.024
中部	1.123	1.016	1.084	1.048	1.040
西部	1.080	1.019	1.083	1.056	1.009

指数	Malmquist	PEC	PTC	SEC	STC
1995~1996	1.300	1.048	1.254	1.044	0.947
1996~1997	0.910	0.933	0.979	1.135	0.877
1997~1998	1.158	1.061	1.084	0.683	1.475
1998~1999	1.059	1.073	1.001	1.197	0.824
1999~2000	1.527	1.095	1.409	0.982	1.008
2000~2001	0.728	0.966	1.011	0.857	0.871
2001~2002	1.087	0.951	1.227	1.443	0.645
2002~2003	0.808	0.522	1.775	0.658	1.327
2003~2004	1.204	1.558	0.698	1.224	0.905
2004~2005	1.342	0.994	1.297	1.272	0.819
2005~2006	0.914	0.923	0.882	1.100	1.019
2006~2007	1.532	0.920	1.382	0.975	1.237
2007~2008	0.697	0.887	0.980	1.095	0.732
2008~2009	1.563	1.443	1.025	0.737	1.434
2009~2010	0.819	0.622	0.998	1.300	1.013
2010~2011	1.260	1.043	1.234	0.992	0.987
2011~2012	0.874	1.089	0.800	1.016	0.987
2012~2013	0.850	0.932	0.911	1.025	0.976
1995~2013	1.091	1.003	1.108	1.041	1.004

时期	地区	Malmquist	PEC	PTC	SEC	STC
	黑龙江	1.075	1.011	1.072	1.065	0.991
1995~2002年	吉林	1.244	1.103	1.111	1.019	1.016
	辽宁	1.120	1.017	1.139	1.062	0.972
	黑龙江	1.104	1.097	1.200	1.003	1.043
2002~2008年	吉林	1.654	1.547	1.351	1.025	1.055
	辽宁	1.051	0.950	1.203	1.039	0.999
	黑龙江	1.018	1.008	0.978	0.952	1.105
2008~2013年	吉林	1.156	1.248	0.940	0.947	1.093
	辽宁	1.111	1.036	1.054	1.001	1.027
	黑龙江	1.069	1.039	1.088	1.013	1.040
1995~2013年	吉林	1.356	1.291	1.144	1.001	1.050
	辽宁	1.094	1.000	1.136	1.037	0.996

变量	LLC	Breitung	IPS
Malmquist	-6.0505^***	-4.0174^***	-3.6022^***
PEC	-7.8016^***	-4.1239^***	-4.0515^***
SEC	13.7514	-5.2212^***	-4.7774^***
PTC	-5.6219^***	-4.3472^***	-3.4753^***
STC	-1.7345^**	-2.6164^***	-4.2480^***

VARIABLES	Malmquist	PTC	PEC	STC	SEC
L.Malmquist	-1.833^***	-0.0998	-2.327^***	-0.182^***	0.150^***
	(0.181)	(0.106)	(0.355)	(0.0291)	(0.0354)
L.PTC	1.682^***	-0.305	2.820^***	0.319^***	-0.222^***
	(0.235)	(0.191)	(0.483)	(0.0494)	(0.0566)
L.PEC	1.453^***	0.409^***	1.268^***	0.162^***	-0.103^***
	(0.114)	(0.0852)	(0.196)	(0.0215)	(0.0298)
L.STC	4.903^***	1.532^***	5.388^***	-0.371^***	0.318^**
	(0.584)	(0.315)	(0.732)	(0.120)	(0.146)
L.SEC	5.832^***	2.479^***	5.730^***	0.307^**	-0.287^*
	(0.631)	(0.300)	(0.805)	(0.120)	(0.163)
Observations	48	48	48	48	48

The Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Development Trend Forecast of Innovative TFP Growth in China’s Three Northeastern Provinces

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时期	模型变量	PTC	PEC	STC	SEC	Malmquist
2	Malmquist	0.0005	0.2737	0.0347	0.2800	0.4111
5	Malmquist	0.0974	0.2326	0.0476	0.2581	0.3643
10	Malmquist	0.1011	0.2257	0.0641	0.2502	0.3589
15	Malmquist	0.1017	0.2254	0.0644	0.2499	0.3586

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