东北三省人口分布空间格局演化及其驱动因素研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.05.008

Abstract

Abstract:

Northeast China is considered as the important old industrial base. However the change of population distribution and driving factors were not clear yet under the circumstance of a new round of revitalization. Therefore, according to the population census data in 1990, 2000 and 2010, Lorenz curve, relative change rate of population density and Moran’s I are employed to analysis spatial pattern evolution of population distribution in Northeast China in 1990-2010, which consist of 176 counties. Subsequently, based on the partial least squares (PLS) regression method, 10 natural and social-economic factors are recognized to make quantitative analysis on spatial pattern evolution of population distribution in Northeast China. Major conclusion can be drawn as follows: 1) From the stand point of overall distribution pattern changes in nearly 20 years, average population density shows: Heilongjiang Province< Jilin Province

Key words: population distribution, spatial-temporal evolution, old industrial base

CLC Number:

K901.3

Tingting Yu, Yuxiang Song, Feilong Hao, Rong A. Space Pattern Evolution of Population Distribution and the Driving Factors in Northeast China[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(5): 709-717.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 36

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年份	1990	2000	2010
Moran’s I	0.21	0.20	0.18
Z(I)	4.93	4.57	4.09

人口密度变化类型		黑龙江省			吉林省			辽宁省			东北地区
人口密度变化类型	市县个数	变化均值（人/km²）	面积占比（%）	市县个数	变化均值（人/km²）	面积占比（%）	市县个数	变化均值（人/km²）	面积占比（%）	市县个数	变化均值（人/km²）	面积占比（%）
快速增加	11	31.88	37	14	31.75	39	18	52.46	23	43	116.10	15
缓慢增加	25	3.32	77	8	0.54	20	4	0.17	4	37	4.03	30
缓慢降低	32	–2.44	59	15	–4.59	22	15	–1.18	18	62	–6.37	41
快速降低	7	–9.11	32	8	–9.01	24	19	–10.23	44	34	–28.34	14

指标类型	编号	名称	单位	来源
自然环境指标	X₁	地形起伏度	无	RESDC
	X₂	多年平均温度	℃	RESDC
	X₃	多年平均降水	mm	RESDC
社会经济指标	X₄	粮食产量	t	统计年鉴^[26~29]
	X₅	国内生产总值（GDP）	10⁴元	统计年鉴^[26~29]
	X₆	人均社会消费品零售总额	元	统计年鉴^[26~29]
	X₇	医疗卫生院床位数	床	统计年鉴^[26~29]
	X₈	移动电话户数	万户	统计年鉴^[26~29]
	X₉	人均可支配收入	元	统计年鉴^[26~29]
	X₁₀	工业总产值	10⁴元	统计年鉴^[26~29]

编号	BETA	VIP	P值
X₁	-0.450	0.782	0.482
X₂	-0.052	0.321	0.098
X₃	-0.030	0.412	0.484
X₄	0.132	0.683	0.843
X₅	0.230	1.990	0.001
X₆	0.121	1.268	0.054
X₇	0.133	1.210	0.000
X₈	0.120	1.003	0.000
X₉	0.220	1.730	0.005
X₁₀	0.150	1.654	0.000

Space Pattern Evolution of Population Distribution and the Driving Factors in Northeast China

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