基于市场潜能的城市经济增长空间格局及溢出效应

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.002

Abstract

Abstract:

With the process of reform and opening up, the market questions are becoming more and more important to Chinese economic growth, especially the questions on the relationships of market potential and economic growth. The measurement of market potential which reflected the the first law of geography is widely used by theories of new economic geography and regional econometrics. This article constructed the theoretical model of market potential and economic growth based on the theory of new economic geography. The article also analyzed the market potential and of Chinese 258 prefecture-level cities quantitatively and explored the spatial distribution of market potential. According to intensity of market potential, the research areas could be divided into three grades of market potential areas. The first market potential zone is the area which owns the highest market potential and the values in the second market potential zone are lower than that. The third market potential zone obtains the lowest values of market potential. This article revealed the characteristics of market potential’s spatial autocorrelation with using exploratory spatial data analysis tools. Moreover, this article introduced the market potential variable as the index of economic spillover effects, because the conception of market potential could reflect the spatial relationships of different areas to a certain extent, especially spatial dependence and spillover effects. So the spatial effects could not be ignored in this article. Taking the spatial effects out of consideration could lead to the results of estimation biased and inconsistent. Therefore, this article established the spatial econometric models (including spatial lag model and spatial error model) to measure the scope of economic spillover effects in China. The results are as follows: 1) The spatial distribution of market potential in China presented the ‘core-edge’ structure, which showed a trend of cascade decrease from the coast to inland areas. 2) The spatial autocorrelation of market potential increases first and then fall with geographical distance. What’s more, for the market potential areas of different intensity, the scope of their spatial autocorrelation is different. 3) Economic growth spillover effects showed a trend of "∽" type with geographic distance. The economic growth effective spillover of Chinese 258 prefecture-level cities is in the range of 200 km. For the market potential areas of different intensity, the scope of the economic growth spillover effects is different. The area that market potential are higher, the spatial agglomeration of economic activities is stronger, and the scope of economic growth spillover effects is broader.

Key words: market potential, economic growth, spatial autocorrelation, spatial spillover effect

CLC Number:

F061.5

Xuehui Wang, Guofeng Gu. Spatial Pattern and Spillover Effects of Urban Economic Growth Based on Market Potential[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(11): 1617-1623.

Figures/Tables 5

Fig.1

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Table 1

Table 2

Fig. 3

References 19

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检验	统计量	概率值
残差Moran’s I	4.787	0.000
L Mlag	6.808	0.009
R-LMlag	4.304	0.038
L Muerr	20.326	0.000
R-LMerr	17.822	0.000

	OLS			SLM			SEM
	全国	一、二等级	二、三等级	全国	一、二等级	二、三等级	全国	一、二等级	二、三等级
mp	0.185^***	0.276^**	0.250^***	0.238^***	0.274^**	0.294^***	0.131^**	0.175^***	0.194^**
	（3.104）	（2.278）	（3.244）	（3.837）	（2.313）	（3.673）	（1.995）	（3.313）	（2.339）
k	0.665^***	0.615^***	0.641^***	0.667^***	0.618^***	0.645^***	0.647^***	0.603^***	0.636^***
	（20.428）	（14.561）	（16.455）	（20.899）	（14.959）	（16.852）	（19.132）	（14.051）	（15.741）
dl	0.132^***	0.115^***	0.094^***	0.126^***	0.106^***	0.096^***	0.106^***	0.083^***	0.081^***
	（5.758）	（4.509）	（3.055）	（5.567）	（4.222）	（3.188）	（4.566）	（3.335）	（2.688）
l	0.019	0.065^***	0.022	0.026	0.066^***	0.023	0.027	0.078^***	0.028
	（ 1.020）	（2.677）	（0.998）	（1.424）	（2.801）	（1.082）	（1.540）	（3.501）	（1.318）
ρ/λ				0.028^***	0.019^**	0.016^*	0.323^***	0.365^***	0.217
				（2.613）	（2.034）	（1.734）	（4.265）	（4.215）	（1.528）
R-squared	0.759	0.775	0.704	0.764	0.779	0.708	0.778	0.798	0.717
Log-L	80.494	55.097	28.748	70.098	50.134	27.243	92.759	75.192	25.484

Spatial Pattern and Spillover Effects of Urban Economic Growth Based on Market Potential

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