SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 67-77.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.01.008

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

New Southward Policy’of Taiwan, China Under the View of Trade:Based on the Ways of SNA and VAR

Hangfei Li1,2(), Suqiong Wei1(), Songlin Chen1, Shaobin Wei1, Jialiang Zhao1   

  1. 1.Institute of Geographical Research, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, Fujian,China
    2.College of tourism and geography, Shaoguan University, Shaoguan 512005, Guangdong,China
  • Received:2017-05-03 Revised:2017-08-12 Online:2018-01-10 Published:2018-01-10
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771136);The Key Project in Prior Field of Fujian Public Welfare Project (2018R1101006-2);Outstanding Youth Innovative Talent Training Program of Colleges and Universities in Guangdong Province (2013WYM0075);Planning Project of Philosophy and Social Science in Guangdong Province (GD17CGL13)

Abstract:

‘New Southward Policy’of Taiwan,China has been concerned widely since it was put out. Based on the perspective of foreign trade and the trade data from 2001 to 2015, after the analysis of economic dependence and international competitiveness, the paper analyzed the status of Mainland China in the trade network and its impact on Taiwan ,China through social network analysis, and discussed the influences on the economy of Taiwan, China according to the foreign trade date between ‘New Southward’ countries, Mainland China and Taiwan,China through the VAR impulse response function. The results show that: For the ‘New Southward’ nations, the degree of its economic dependence on Mainland China is much higher than that of Taiwan,China, and the trade status of Mainland China is far higher than that of Taiwan,China; for Taiwan,China, the degree of its economic dependence on Mainland China is significantly higher than that of the ‘New Southward’ countries, and the trade status of Mainland China is significantly higher than that of the ‘New Southward’ nations; for the ‘New Southward’ countries, the foreign trade status of Mainland China is irreplaceable by Taiwan,China. Meanwhile, for Taiwan,China, the foreign trade status of Mainland China is irreplaceable by the ‘New Southward’ nations; Mainland China is the central of the trade network pattern, which plays an important role in promoting Taiwan,China status in the trade network; the positive effect of foreign trade between Mainland China and Taiwan,China on the economic development of Taiwan,China is significantly higher than that of the ‘New Southward’ countries. In order to boost economy, the Taiwan authority should adhere to the‘1992 Consensus’, and vigorously promote the integration of‘New Southward policy’and ‘The Belt and Road Initiatives’, strengthen the economic and trade cooperation and exchanges with Mainland China.

Key words: trade pattern, ‘New Southward policy’, social network analysis(SNA), VAR impulse response, Mainland China, Taiwan China

CLC Number: 

  • F127