SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 457-463.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.03.016

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Spatio-temporal Simulation of Gannan Ecological Barrier Under Different Scenarios

Li Yang1,2(), Chun Fu2   

  1. 1.School of Sciences, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, Jiagnxi,China
    2. Management Department, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, Jiangxi, China
  • Received:2017-03-07 Revised:2017-05-26 Online:2018-03-21 Published:2018-03-21

Abstract:

Gannan forest is an important safety barrier in southeast China. It belongs to Nanling Mountain forest and biodiversity reserve of China. To analyze the evolution trend of Gannan forest, driving factors is chosen from the perspectives of natural, geographic, geographic traffic and economic and a Logistic-CA-Markov model is constructed based on land use of the year 2000 and 2010. According to the development status and existing issues in Gannan, three scenes are set to predict the spatial transfer pattern of closed forest land, shrubbery, open forest land and other forest land, which are current pattern, land use planning and forest protecting. The results show that: 1) Key driving forces for forest land use change are human activities, society and economy. Location and environment variables are secondary causes. For the change of closed forest land, shrubbery and other forest land, GDP and population are key explaining variables. For open forest land, the key driving force of its change is gradients. 2) In 2020, the area of total forest land will decrease under current trend scenario and land use planning scenario, while under forest protecting scenario there is an augment. No matter in which scenario, the increase of closed forest land and other forest land and the decline of open forest land and shrubbery are obvious, and the construction of forest land will definitely change a lot. 3) The main transfer trend in 3 scenarios are open forest land to closed forest land, closed forest land to other forest land and shrubbery to closed forest land. The transfer to closed forest land is dispersedly distributed, while the transfer to other forest land is concentrated in Anyuan County and its circum. 4) Compared to current trend scenario, the transfer from closed forest land use to other forest land will have a big shrinkage in land use planning scenario and the shrinkage will be lager in forest protecting scenario. In all, on one hand, the natural forest and planted forest of high canopy density is in a recovery increase, which shows that policies and regulation to protect forest resource has achieved initial success. On the other hand, with the development of urbanization and economic construction, the social and economic factors are posing greater influence to forest. The economy rise will accelerate forest land expansion structural adjustment of agriculture mobilized by forestry and fruit growing leads to rapid expansion of economic forest. But the farmland and construction land will erode the forest land in unavoidable way under urbanization background. The contradiction between forestry development and peasant’s life demand is becoming obvious.

Key words: CA-Markov, Logistic Regression, spatial pattern, forest land, Gannan

CLC Number: 

  • F301.2