SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 737-746.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.05.011

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Simulation of Urban Expansion in Guangzhou-Foshan Metropolitan Area Under the Influence of Accessibility

Tong Zhang1,2(), Shimou Yao1,3(), Weiping Hu4, Fengyan Cui4   

  1. 1.Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences ,Nanjing, 210008, Jiangsu, China;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Advanced Institute of Contemporary China Studies, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong 999077, China
    4. School of Geography, South China Normal University ,Guangzhou 510631, Guangdong,China
  • Received:2017-05-10 Revised:2017-08-16 Online:2018-05-10 Published:2018-05-10
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (40871086)

Abstract:

Accessibility is a key indicator connecting urban expansion and traffic infrastructure construction, which could reveal the potential development of metropolitan areas. The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) and Auto-Logistic regression models were used to simulate urban expansion of the Guangzhou-Foshan metropolitan area in two scenarios, the regional development scenario and transportation planning scenario. Based on the evolution pattern of transportation accessibility and characteristics of urban expansion, the interaction between transportation accessibility and urban expansion was revealed. The results from the modified CLUE-S model showed better goodness of fit by adding accessibility indicators. The evolution patterns of the shortest space and time accessibility are all changing from a dual-core structure (1982) to a single-core structure—located within the Guangzhou City center during 1995-2020, especially the spatial pattern of the shortest time accessibility which is closely related to the main roads. Indexes of urban expansion intensity and expansion differentiation are increasing year by year. The city centers in the study area have almost been developed, with varying degrees of extension to Huadu, Panyu, Zengcheng, and other surroundings. Accessibility has an increasing negative impact on urban expansion. However, with traffic accessibility improved, the variation of accessibility has a declining positive effect on urban expansion; and the impact of urban expansion on variations of traffic accessibility is shifting from negative to positive effects. In the future, more attention should be given to improving land use efficiency and completing public service facilities around traffic stations.

Key words: Guangzhou-Foshan metropolitan area, accessibility, urban expansion, growth regression model, CLUE-S

CLC Number: 

  • F299.23