SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (11): 1837-1846.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.011

Special Issue: 人口与城市研究

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Characteristic and Mechanism of Urban Growth and Shrinkage from Demographic Change Perspective: A Case Study of Dongguan

Zhiwei Du1,2(), Xun Li3()   

  1. 1. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, China
    2. Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, China
    3. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, China
  • Received:2017-11-12 Revised:2018-01-08 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571118, 41801122), GDAS' Special Project of Science and Technology Development (2016GDASRC-0101, 2018GDASCX-0901)


After the financial crisis in 2008, a new phenomenon “shrinkage” has appeared in Dongguan’s urban area, which manifested population size reducing in its towns. Although the economic recovery rapidly in the post-crisis period, the spatial separation of population growth and shrinkage is aggravating, accompanied by a series of changes in the demographic structure. Base on the perspective of demographic change, this article makes an in-depth analysis of the growth and shrinkage in Dongguan by using the Social Security Registration data. We summarize the characteristic of demographic changes in the size, age, gender and education after the financial crisis, and industrial economic structure of different towns. Moreover, we construct a panel regression model for exploring the factors and mechanisms that affect urban population growth and shrinkage. The result shows: 1) While the population size of Dongguan tends to growing in fluctuation, the population structure shows trends for migrant population localization, male and female more imbalance, younger and highly educated population. 2) Advanced manufacturing and modern service industries to promote city growing, and outward processing and manufacturing transformation failure will affect the city shrinking. 3) The spatial distribution shows the "growing in the north, shrinking in the south", forming a concentrated area where the central area growing, the northwest area and the southeastern area are shrinking. 4) Macroeconomic fluctuation, industrial transformation, technological innovation inputs and local development pathway have significant impacts on demographic growth and shrinkage in Dongguan.

Key words: shrinking city, demographic structure, the Pearl River Delta, Dongguan

CLC Number: 

  • F129.9