省际人口迁移与制造业转移空间交互响应研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.02.002

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the data of censuses and 1% sample survey in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 and related annual manufacturing statistics, this article illustrates the temporal and spatial patterns of manufacturing transfer and migration and analyzes the interaction between migration and manufacturing transfer by introducing gravity center model and Geo-detector. The results show that: 1) There has being a significant trend of manufacturing industry transfer since 2000, especially after 2005, characterized by differences in transfer scales and spatial areas among manufacturing industries. Energy-intensive, technology-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing industries present clear transfer trend with broad spatial areas from the coastal to the inland area, in contrast, the transfer trend of labor-intensive industries which are concentrated in the coastal is uncertain yet. 2) There is little change in the migration pattern featured by minus net-migration in the middle of China and plus in some areas from eastern and western China, but the feature is less prominent with the bigger share of immigrants in the inland area. 3) The change tracks of both manufacturing industry and migration gravity center shows a relationship characterized by deviation and convergence. The migration lagging-behind effect compared with the industrial transfer has gradually disappeared and the spatial population-industry matching degree tends to improve. 4) The Geo-detector is applied to quantitatively identifing the spatial relationship between migration and manufacturing transfer. It is found that the change of migration pattern is more responsive to the spatial transfer, but the latter is less responsive to the former.

Key words: inter-provincial migration, manufacturing industry transfer, gravity center model, Geo-detector

CLC Number:

K902

Guoxia Wang, Man Li. The Spatial Interaction Between Inter-provincial Migration and Manufacturing Industry Transfer[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(2): 183-194.

Figures/Tables 8

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Table 1

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	2000年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2000~2005年	2005~2010年	2010~2015年	2000~2015年
能源密集型	弱	微弱	微弱	微弱	弱	微弱	微弱	微弱
技术密集型	强	强	次强	强	中等	次强	弱	次强
资本密集型	中等	强	中等	中等	弱	弱	弱	弱
劳动密集型	中等	次强	中等	中等	弱	弱	微弱	弱
人均GDP	弱	中等	中等	弱	次强	强	微弱	次强

	人口迁移率				人口迁移率与人均GDP交互作用
	2000年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2000年	2005年	2010年	2015年
能源密集型	微弱	微弱	微弱	微弱	次强	中等	次强	次强
技术密集型	中等	弱	弱	微弱	强	强	次强	强
资本密集型	弱	微弱	微弱	微弱	次强	次强	次强	强
劳动密集型	微弱	微弱	微弱	微弱	次强	次强	次强	强

	人口迁移率				人口迁移率与人均GDP交互作用
	2000~2005年	2005~2010年	2010~2015年	2000~2015年	2000~2005年	2005~2010年	2010~2015年	2000~2015年
能源密集型	微弱	微弱	微弱	弱	中等	中等	微弱	中等
技术密集型	微弱	微弱	微弱	弱	次强	中等	微弱	弱
资本密集型	微弱	中等	微弱	中等	中等	强	微弱	中等
劳动密集型	微弱	中等	微弱	中等	弱	强	微弱	中等

The Spatial Interaction Between Inter-provincial Migration and Manufacturing Industry Transfer

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