SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 533-540.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.04.002

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Environmental Adaptability Evolution and Early-warning of Human-sea Economic System in China

Bo Li1(), Zhaoyuan Shi1, Chuang Tian1, Fei Su2, Fei Peng1   

  1. 1.Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
    2. School of Tourism Urban-rural Planning, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China
  • Received:2018-03-28 Revised:2018-07-15 Online:2019-04-10 Published:2019-04-10
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Youth Foundation of China (41201114),The MOE Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences in University (16JJD790021), Educational Commission of Liaoning Province of China (JZ201783604), Dalian Youth Science and Technology Star Project Support Plan (2016RQ048)

Abstract:

Constructing environmental adaptability index system of human-sea economic system based on adaptability factors of sensitivity, stability and response. The entropy method was used to measure the environmental adaptability of human-sea economic system from 2001 to 2016. Combined with ARIMA-BP combined forecasting model, this article forecasts the environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system from 2017 to 2020 and makes a detailed analysis of the light display mechanism. The results show that: 1) The environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system continued to increase from 2001 to 2016, the warning degree rose from serious alert to slight alert and the indicator lamp turned from orange lamp to blue lamp, and 70% of the years in the medium alert. The environmental adaptability evolutionary process of human-sea economic system is a trade-off between human-sea economic system and the human-sea environment system, which experienced a comparative advantage phase of human-sea environment system→coupling and coordination stage→the comparative advantage phase of human-sea economic system. It is estimated that it will re-enter the highly coordinated phase of slight alert state from 2017 to 2020. 2) From 2001 to 2016, there was a short rise period and a long decline in the environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system. It is estimated that the rate of environmental adaptability fluctuation of the Chinese human-sea economic system will not be optimistic in the context of economic downturn and ecological constraints from 2017 to 2020. 3) The ARIMA-BP combination forecasting model has a good simulation effect, and it is feasible to apply it to the environmental adaptability pre-warning study of the human-sea economic system. 4) The environmental adaptability evolutionary process of human-sea economic system is unique and dynamic, thus, it is the main policing strategy for the future to weigh the relationship between the human-sea economic system and the human-sea environment system in pursuit of maximizing the overall efficiency and extending the expansion period of adaptive cyclical fluctuations, and to develop a differentiated and flexible adaptation action policy.

Key words: human-sea economic system, environmental adaptability, environmental adaptability early-warning, ARIMA-BP model

CLC Number: 

  • K902