居住选择对流动人口城市居留意愿的影响——基于一项对福建省流动人口的调查

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.09.012

Abstract

Abstract:

China’s floating population is the biggest mobile population in the world. Most of its members are still not able to settle down and be fully integrated into the destination cities, and a growing body of literature has been devoted to understanding their settlement intention and its determinants in such a context. Housing greatly influences the settlement of both internal and international migrants. Nevertheless, within the growing body of literature, far less attention has been devoted to the role of housing conditions in migrant settlement in cities. In addition, the rise of housing marketization has broadened housing choices for migrants, encouraging settlement intention to be a more complicated process. However, few studies have addressed the diverse patterns of settlement intention under the interaction of institutional constraints and housing marketization. This study goes beyond this limitation and investigates how housing conditions measured by ownership, location, residential pattern and housing affordability affect rural migrant urban settlement intentions. Using the data from a migrant survey in Fujian Province in 2015, we first utilize a composite index consisting of three dimensions to measure migrants’ settlement intention, namely, long-term residence intention, permanent settlement intention, and hukou transfer intention. And then using the ordered logistic regression model, we explore the impacts of housing ownership, housing location, residential pattern and housing affordability on migrants’ settlement intention. The results show that: 1) The overall level of migrants’ permanent settlement intention is not high in the China’s cities, which is not strong as suspected in public debates. 2) The rate of the “High” degree of migrants’ settlement intention increases as the housing conditions level and their housing affordability increase. 3) After controlling for the effects of individual characteristics, migration patterns, migrants’ housing conditions play a critical role in affecting their settlement intention. With owner housing strongly promote migrants’ settlement intention, and migrants living in the central city are more likely to settle down in the cities than their counterparts in the suburbs. Furthermore, lower degrees of housing expenditure-income ratio have significant negative effect on the migrants’ permanent settlement intention. Meanwhile, migrants living with their family members are more likely to settle down in the cities than those living alone. Based on the above findings, we suggest that housing should be integrated into relevant policy making in China’s current efforts to boost migrants’ permanent settlement. For example, instead of granting urban hukou status, an open housing market with more eligible and affordable housing access would provide a broad channel for permanent settlement, which is the preference of rural migrants.

Key words: migrants, urbanization, urban settlement intention, housing conditions

CLC Number:

K901.3

Lin Liyue, Zhu Yu, Ke Wenqian. The Impacts of Housing Conditions on Migrants’ Settlement Intention in the Cities: Evidence from Fujian Province[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(9): 1464-1472.

Figures/Tables 4

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Fig.1

References 32

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变量名称	变量赋值	均值	标准差
因变量
城市居留意愿指数（Y）	无=0;低=1;中=2;高=3	1.157	1.134
核心自变量
住房产权类型（X₁）	其他产权房=1;租住房=2;自有住房=3	1.825	0.485
居住区位（X₂）	远郊农村=1;城乡结合部=2;中心城区=3	2.008	0.735
居住家庭化程度（X₃）	单独居住=1;与家人共同居住=2	1.726	0.446
房租收入比（X₄）	无住房支出=1;小于等于5%=2; 5%~10%=3; 10%~20%=4;大于20%=5	2.799	1.270
控制变量
性别（X₅）	男=0;女=1	0.476	0.500
年龄（X₆）	连续变量	33.160	9.884
受教育年限（X₇）	连续变量	9.640	2.944
户口性质（X₈）	非农业=0;农业=1	0.771	0.420
婚姻状况（X₉）	单身=0;在婚=1	0.760	0.426
就业身份（X₁₀）	自雇=1;他雇=2;无就业=3	2.193	0.595
家庭月均收入对数（X₁₁）	连续变量	8.695	0.527
当前城市滞留时间（X₁₂）	连续变量	4.761	4.914
流动范围（X₁₃）	省内流动=0;跨省流动=1	0.560	0.496

		城市居留意愿强度
		无	低	中	高
居住区位	远郊农村	55.05	23.62	12.76	8.57
	城乡结合部	35.49	24.73	18.46	21.32
	中心城区	30.31	23.66	23.11	22.92
住房产权类型	其他产权房	56.65	23.85	10.32	9.17
	租住房	36.07	24.21	20.69	19.03
	自有住房	6.67	24.44	16.67	52.22
房租收入比	无住房支出	54.28	24.69	10.76	10.27
	小于等于5%	41.85	30.33	16.04	11.78
	5%~10%	40.87	23.15	17.00	18.99
	10%~20%	31.71	20.24	22.68	25.37
	大于20%	15.12	21.46	31.71	31.71
居住家庭化程度	与家人共同居住	32.68	25.23	19.93	22.16
居住家庭化程度	单独居住	56.75	21.26	13.68	8.32

	模型1		模型2
	估计系数	标准误差	估计系数	标准误差
住房产权类型（自有住房）
其他产权房			-0.632^***	0.153
租住房			-0.280^*	0.137
居住区位（中心城区）
远郊农村			-0.336^***	0.091
城乡结合部			-0.011	0.071
房租收入比（大于20%）
无住房支出			-0.419^**	0.142
≤5%			-0.615^***	0.116
5%~10%			-0.533^***	0.104
10%~20%			-0.281^**	0.103
居住家庭化程度（与家人共同居住）			-0.362^***	0.101
家庭月均收入对数	0.592^***	0.089	0.342^***	0.067
受教育年限	0.067^*	0.017	0.025^*	0.012
当前城市滞留时间	0.055^***	0.009	0.036^***	0.006
年龄	-0.003	0.006	-0.004	0.004
流动范围（跨省流动）	0.727^***	0.096	0.339^***	0.068
户口性质（农业）	0.952^***	0.111	0.604^***	0.073
婚姻情况（在婚）	-0.555^**	0.132	-0.220^*	0.107
性别（女）	-0.194^*	0.089	-0.100	0.062
就业身份（自雇）
无就业	0.220	0.158	0.006	0.108
他雇	-0.090	0.102	0.071	0.072
伪R²	0.276		0.262

The Impacts of Housing Conditions on Migrants’ Settlement Intention in the Cities: Evidence from Fujian Province

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