SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 768-775.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.05.011

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The Evolution of China's Population Aging Spatial Pattern and Its Driving Factors

Wu Yuanyuan(), Song Yuxiang()   

  1. School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, Jinlin,China
  • Received:2018-11-16 Revised:2019-04-11 Online:2020-05-10 Published:2020-08-18
  • Contact: Song Yuxiang E-mail:wuyuyolan@163.com;songyx803@nenu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Foundation of China(16BJL032)

Abstract:

Based on the fifth and sixth Population Census data, this paper uses Exploratory Data Analysis (ESDA) and spatial econometric model to analyze the spatial pattern evolution characteristics and driving factors of China's prefecture population aging. The conclusions are as follows: 1) The Hu Line is a significant dividing line of the overall pattern of China's population aging rate between the east-high and low-west. The regions with a high population aging rate in China are located to the east of the Hu Line, and the lower regions are located to the west of the Hu Line. As the aging population continues to increase, the spatial pattern of the initial population aging from the west to the east gradually changed. 2) China's population aging has a strong spatial positive correlation, showing the spatial distribution characteristics of high-high and low-low similarity aggregation. The high-high agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan Province and Chongqing, Shandong Peninsula, Middle and South Liaoning Province, etc. The low-low agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in northwestern China, southwestern China, western China, and some prefecture-level cities of the Pearl River Delta. This positive spatial agglomeration has weakened over the past 10 years. 3)The spatial pattern of China's population aging is influenced by population factors and social and economic factors. Among them, the birth rate, mortality rate, education level and population density factors are significant, while the first three factors are always the determinants of population aging. Therefore the demographic factors are the direct factors affecting the evolution of the spatial pattern of China's population aging and the imbalance factors of social and economic development are the root cause. To this end, the recommendations on population aging are proposed from the aspects of population factors and social and economic factors.

Key words: population aging, spatial pattern, influencing factors, spatial statistical analysis, spatial econometric models, China

CLC Number: 

  • K901.3/C922