东北三省县级尺度人口老龄化空间格局演变及类型划分

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.06.007

Abstract

Abstract:

Population aging is becoming a prominent problem restricting the revitalization and development of Northeast China. This paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of the spatial pattern of population aging at the county in the three provinces of Northeast China from 2000 to 2010, and classifies the types of population aging by using static indicators (aging coefficient, the ratio of the aged and the young), dynamic indicators (age structure change, the number change of the elderly population and the non-elderly population, the growth rate of the elderly population), spatial autocorrelation and other measurement indicators and methods. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) In terms of static indicators, the aging coefficient and the ratio of the aged and the young all show an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2010, with more prominent regional differences, and the spatial distribution changed from ‘homogeneous’ to ‘polarized’. Urban agglomeration, resource-based urban districts and some border cities and counties in central and southern Liaoning Province have become the concentrated distribution areas of aging population and low birth rate. 2) In terms of dynamic indicators, during the study period, there are significant differences in age structure change, number change of the elderly population, non-elderly population and growth rate of the elderly population among the municipal districts of the four core cities, surrounding cities and counties of core cities, resource-based urban districts and border cities and counties. 3) Using static and dynamic indicators, the aging types in the three northeastern provinces are divided into five types, named aging with dilution, residual aging, aging in place, potential aging and non-aging. This paper summarizes the characteristics of each type of aging, and puts forward targeted policy recommendations for typical regions.

Key words: population aging, static indicators, dynamic indicators, ageing type, the three provinces of Northeast China

CLC Number:

K902

Liu Jian, Yang Qingshan, Zhang Yu, Liu Jie, Jiang Xiaojun. Spatial Patterns Evolution and Classification of Population Aging in the Three Provinces of Northeast China Based on the County Scale[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(6): 918-927.

Figures/Tables 9

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年份	统计参数	老龄化系数	老少比
2000	Moran’s I	0.67	0.51
	P值检验	0	0
	Z统计值	12.47	10.49
2010	Moran’s I	0.47	0.36
	P值检验	0	0
	Z统计值	9.52	7.06

类型	2000?2010年老年与非老年人口变化情况	子类型	老年人口增速（%）	2010年老龄化系数（%）
稀释老化型	△老年人口>0，△非老年人口>0，△非老年人口/△老年	稀释老化I型	<3.66	>7
	人口>1	稀释老化II型	>3.66	>7
残留老化型	△老年人口>0，△非老年人口<0，△非老年人口/△老年	残留老化I型	<3.66	>7
	人口>1	残留老化II型	>3.66	>7
就地老化型	△老年人口>0，△非老年人口<0，△非老年人口/△老年	就地老化I型	<3.66	>7
	人口<1	就地老化II型	>3.66	>7
潜在老化型	△老年人口>0，△非老年人口<0		>3.66	<7
未老化型	△老年人口>0，△非老年人口>0，△非老年人口/△老年		<3.66	<7
	人口>2

类型	单元数量（个）	2010年老龄化系数均值（%）	老年人口平均增速（%）	老年人口变化（万人）	非老年人口变化（万人）
稀释老化型	35	8.56	3.63	135.10	523.72
残留老化型	94	9.13	3.55	101.39	?373.68
就地老化型	35	9.27	4.01	52.77	?17.56
潜在老化型	14	6.59	3.63	11.02	4.74
未老化型	6	5.79	2.80	4.96	22.48
合计(均值)	184	7.88	3.52	305.24	159.70

Spatial Patterns Evolution and Classification of Population Aging in the Three Provinces of Northeast China Based on the County Scale

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