基于加权破产博弈模型的跨境流域水资源分配研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.04.019

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the perspective of fair and reasonable utilization, this article combined the multi-criterion decision model and bankruptcy theory to discuss the allocation of transboundary river water resources. Through sorting out international water laws, considering the geographical location, population, substitution cost and other related factors of the basin country comprehensively, we designed the index system of fair and reasonable allocation of transboundary river water resources. The projection method is adopted to solve this multi-criterion decision-making problem, and then we obtained the weighted demand of each basin country. Based on the weighted adjustment of water demand and the consideration of bargaining power, we discussed the allocation of transboundary river water resources based on the bankruptcy game model, and we obtained the optimal allocation scheme according to the national utility function of each basin country, so as to improve the fairness, rationality and acceptability of the allocation scheme. Finally, taking the Lancang-Mekong River Basin as an example, we obtained the water resources allocation scheme of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin in the dry season, and analyzed the influence of demand weighted adjustment coefficient on the water resources allocation of each basin country, which further verifies the reliability of the allocation model. This article provides a feasible allocation model for making a fair, reasonable, and acceptable allocation scheme of transboundary river water resources, which is helpful to reduce water resource conflicts and promote water resource benefit-sharing in transboundary river basins. This article provides a feasible allocation model for making a fair, reasonable, and acceptable allocation scheme of transboundary river water resources, which is helpful to reduce water resource conflicts and promote water resource benefit-sharing in transboundary river basins.

Key words: fair and reasonable utilization principle, transboundary river, weighted demand, bargaining power, bankruptcy game

CLC Number:

Li Fang, Wu Fengping, Chen Liuxin, Xu Xia, Zhao Yue. Transboundary River Water Resource Allocation Based on Weighted Bankruptcy Game Model[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(4): 728-736.

Figures/Tables 7

Table 1

Index system of equitable and reasonable water resources allocation in transboundary river"

准则层	指标	符号	指标含义
生态需求	生态需水量/km³	F₁	指以国际河流基本的生态用水需要为基础，维持基础生态最需要的水量。在确定生态需水时，可以分为最小生态需水、适宜生态需水和最大生态需水^[2]
经济社会需求	用水需求/km³	F₂	指流域国的经济社会发展需水，由于数据获取困难，根据各流域国在跨境流域的取水比例关系，计算干旱年各流域国的用水需求^[18]
流域的自然特征	汇水面积/10⁴km²	F₃	描述流域国的地理条件，体现跨境水资源对该流域国的重要程度以及该流域国的贡献度
	河流长度/km	F₄	其值越大，流域国应分得更多的水权^[19]
	径流贡献量/（m³/s）	F₅	描述流域国的水文条件，径流贡献量越大，流域国应享有更多的水权
	降雨量占全流域比例/%	F₆	描述流域国的气候条件，其值越大，流域国应享有更多的水权
现有利用情况	灌溉面积比例关系/%	F₇	描述流域国对跨境水资源的当前利用情况^[4]，现阶段各流域国的消耗性用水主要以灌溉用水为主^[20]
依靠流域水源生活的人口	流域人口数量/10³人	F₈	是正向指标，如果依赖跨境水道生活的人口越多，则需水越多
替代方案的比较成本	人均GDP/（美元/人）	F₉	描述的是流域经济社会发展状况，用来描述满足社会经济需求替代方案的比较成本^[7]，是负向指标
可获得的其他资源	人均水资源量/（m³/人）	F₁₀	描述流域国国内水资源状况，用来描述流域国可获得的其他资源，是负向指标^[7]
应避免不必要的浪费	水生产力/（美元/m³）	F₁₁	体现应避免不必要的浪费准则^[17]，当该流域国的水生产力越高，说明单位水能产生更多的国民生产总值，应分得更多的水权

Table 1

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指标	中国	老挝	缅甸	泰国	柬埔寨	越南
汇水面积/10⁴km²	16.48	20.66	2.4	20.31	15.64	6.5
河流长度/km	2160	1987	265	976	502	230
径流贡献量/（m³/s）	2410	5270	300	2560	2860	1660
降雨量占全流域比例/%	16	35	2	18	18	11
流域内灌溉面积比例关系/%	11.88	6.93	1.98	29.70	7.93	41.58
流域人口数量/10³人	6710	6160	448	24856	13665	6904
人均GDP/（美元/人）	6807.43	1645.74	1152	5778.98	1007.57	1910.53
人均水资源量/（m³/人）	3450	31151	21071	3268	8626	4178
水生产力/（美元/m³）	14.9	2.8	2.3	6.7	6.8	1.8

流域国	初始需求量/km³	需求调整系数	调整后的需求量/km³
中国	100.99	0.1805	119.217
老挝	0.29	0.1907	0.345
缅甸	0.99	0.0757	1.065
泰国	7.18	0.2013	8.626
柬埔寨	0.27	0.1923	0.322
越南	19.84	0.1595	23.005

流域国	需求量/km³	最小水权/km³	水资源分配量/km³	占需求比例/%
中国	119.217	40.671	54.846	46.01
老挝	0.345	0	0.345	100.00
缅甸	1.065	0	1.065	100.00
泰国	8.626	0	8.626	100.00
柬埔寨	0.322	0	0.322	100.00
越南	23.005	0	8.830	38.38

Transboundary River Water Resource Allocation Based on Weighted Bankruptcy Game Model

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References 31

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