黑龙江省耕地时空变化及驱动因素分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.07.017

Abstract

Abstract:

It is of great practical significance for protecting cultivated land and guaranteeing national food security to thoroughly explore the spatio-temporal variation characteristics and driving factors of cultivated land. Based on the land use data of Heilongjiang Province in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015, this article determined the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and main driving factors of cultivated land change in Heilongjiang Province in the four periods from 1980 to 2015 by using GIS and geographical detector model. The results show that from 1980 to 2015, the cultivated land quantity in Heilongjiang Province increased, and the increased cultivated land mainly came from forest land, grassland and unused land. The variation of cultivated land quantity in each period was obviously different, with the largest variation from 1990 to 2000. The spatial difference of cultivated land change in each period was obvious. From 1980 to 2015, the dynamic degree of cultivated land use in Heilongjiang Province showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, and the regions with active dynamic degree of cultivated land use were concentrated in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain. The explanatory ability of drivers factors are different in each period. Population size, policy factors, GDP and urbanization level are the driving factors with strong explanatory ability. The influence of driving factors on the spatiotemporal change of cultivated land is realized through the interaction of various factors, which is manifested as double factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement.

Key words: cultivated land, land use, temporal and spatial variation, driving force, Heilongjiang Province

CLC Number:

F301.24

Li Dan, Zhou Jia, Zhan Daqing. Spatial and Temporal Changes and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land in Heilongjiang Province[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(7): 1266-1275.

Figures/Tables 5

Table 1

Fig. 1

Table 2

Table 3

Driving factor interaction detection results from 1980 to 2015

驱动因子	1980—1990年	1990—2000年	2000—2010年	2010—2015年
高程-坡度	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强	非线性增强
城镇化水平-高程	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强	双因子增强
高程-人口数量	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强	非线性增强
坡度-农业机械化程度	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强	非线性增强
坡度-人口数量	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强	非线性增强
城镇化水平-坡度	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强	双因子增强
高程-农业机械化程度	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强	非线性增强
城镇化水平-人口数量	非线性增强	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强
城镇化水平-农业机械化程度	非线性增强	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强
农业机械化程度-人口数量	非线性增强	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强
高程-政策因素	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强	非线性增强
坡度-政策因素	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强	非线性增强
城镇化水平-政策因素	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强
人口数量-政策因素	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强
农业机械化程度-政策因素	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强
高程-GDP	非线性增强	非线性增强	非线性增强	非线性增强
坡度-GDP	非线性增强	非线性增强	非线性增强	非线性增强
城镇化水平-GDP	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强
人口数量-GDP	双因子增强	双因子增强	非线性增强	双因子增强
农业机械化程度-GDP	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强
政策因素-GDP	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强	双因子增强

Table 3

Fig. 2

References 39

1	Sun L, Wei J, Duan D H et al. Impact of land-use and land-cover change on urban air quality in representative cities of China[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2016, 142: 43-54 doi: 10.1016/j.jastp.2016.02.022
2	赵锐锋, 王福红, 张丽华, 等. 黑河中游地区耕地景观演变及社会经济驱动力分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(6): 920-928
	Zhao Ruifeng, Wang Fuhong, Zhang Lihua et al. Dynamic of farmland landscape and its socioeconomic driving forces in the middle reaches of the Heihe River[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(6): 920-928
3	Shi W, Tao F, Liu J et al. Has climate change driven spatio-temporal changes of cropland in Northern China since the 1970s[J]. Climatic Change, 2014, 124(1/2): 163-177
4	Conway T M. The impact of class resolution in land use change models[J]. Computers Environment & Urban Systems, 2009, 33(4): 269-277
5	Lambin E F, Meyfroidt P, Rudel T K et al. Land use transition: Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change[J]. Land Use Policy, 2010, 27(2): 108-118 doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.09.003
6	Deng X, Huang J, Rozelle S et al. Impact of urbanization on cultivated land changes in China[J]. Land Use Policy, 2015, 45: 1-7 doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.01.007
7	Ligtenberg A, Wachowicz M, Bregt A K et al. A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planing[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2004, 72(1-2): 43-55
8	张国平, 刘纪远, 张增祥. 近10年来中国耕地资源的时空变化分析[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(3): 323-332 doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2003.03.001
	Zhang Guoping, Liu Jiyuan, Zhang Zengxiang. Spatial-temporal changes of cropland in China for the past 10 years based on remote sensing[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(3): 323-332 doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2003.03.001
9	杜新波, 周伟, 司慧娟, 等. 青海省2000-2008年间耕地变化及驱动力研究[J]. 水土保持研究, 2013, 20(5): 180-186
	Du Xinbo, Zhou Wei, Si Huijuan et al. Driving forces of cultivated land changes in Qinghai Province during 2000-2008[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2013, 20(5): 180-186
10	岁秀珍, 阮仁宗, 颜梅春, 等. 南京市耕地时空变化及驱动力分析[J]. 地理空间信息, 2014, 12(3): 89-92 doi: 10.11709/j.issn.1672-4623.2014.03.029
	Sui Xiuzhen, Ruan Renzong, Yan Meichun et al. Analysis of cropland spatio-temporal change and driving force in Nanjing[J]. Geospatial Information, 2014, 12(3): 89-92 doi: 10.11709/j.issn.1672-4623.2014.03.029
11	刘彦彤, 张延军, 赵玲. 长春市耕地动态变化及其驱动力分析[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(7): 868-873
	Liu Yantong, Zhang Yanjun, Zhao Ling. Dynamic changes of cultivated land in Changchun City and their driving forces[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2011, 31(7): 868-873
12	魏丹, 匡恩俊, 迟凤琴. 东北黑土资源现状与保护策略[J]. 黑龙江农业科学, 2016(1): 158-161
	Wei Dan, Kuang Enjun, Chi Fengqin et al. Status and protection ptrategy of black soil resources in Northeast of China[J]. Heilongjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2016(1): 158-161
13	张庆伟. 深化农业供给侧改革[N]. 黑龙江日报, 2019-3-13.
	Zhang Qingwei. Deepening agricultural supply side reform. Heilongjiang Daily. 2019-3-13.
14	颜波, 胡文国, 周竹君, 等. 关于黑龙江省在保障国家粮食安全中的定位和粮食产业发展方向的调查[J]. 中国粮食经济, 2019(4): 41-48
	Yan Bo, Hu Wenguo, Zhou Zhujun et al. A survey on the position of Heilongjiang Province in ensuring national food security and the development direction of grain industry[J]. China’s Grain Economy, 2019(4): 41-48
15	徐珊. 县域耕地资源变化及其对粮食生产能力影响研究[D]. 哈尔滨: 东北农业大学, 2014.
	Xu Shan. Study on the change of cultivated land resources and its impact on grain production capacity at county level. Harbin: Northeast Agricultural University, 2014.
16	王鹏. 江西省耕地利用的演变规律与驱动力研究[D]. 南昌: 江西农业大学, 2013.
	Wang Peng. Study on the evolution law and driving force of cultivated land use in Jiangxi Province. Nanchang: Jiangxi Agricultural University, 2013.
17	席娟. 基于GIS的湖北省县域耕地集约利用时空差异分析[D]. 武汉: 华中师范大学, 2013.
	Xi Juan. Spatial and temporal differences of cultivated land intensive use in Hubei pProvince based on GIS. Wuhan: Central China Normal University, 2013.
18	高婧. 上海郊区耕地时空变化特征及影响因素分析[D]. 上海: 华东师范大学, 2018.
	Gao Jing. Spatial and temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of cultivated land in Shanghai suburbs. Shanghai: East China Normal University, 2018.
19	陈亦男. 长株潭地区耕地集约利用时空变化分析[D]. 长沙市: 湖南师范大学, 2014.
	Chen Yinan. Analysis of spatial and temporal changes of cultivated land intensive use in Chang-Zhu-Tan area. Changsha: Hunan Normal University, 2014.
20	张文静. 近20年蒙古国耕地时空变化及驱动力分析[D]. 呼和浩特: 内蒙古师范大学, 2019.
	Zhang Wenjing. Analysis of temporal and spatial changes and driving forces of cultivated land in Mongolia in recent 20 years. Hohhot: Inner Mongolia Normal University, 2019.
21	杜国明, 刘彦随. 黑龙江省耕地集约利用评价及分区研究[J]. 资源科学, 2013, 35(3): 554-560
	Du Guoming, Liu Yansui. Evaluating and zoning intensive utilization of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Resources Science, 2013, 35(3): 554-560
22	倪超, 杨胜天. 黑龙江省耕地集约利用评价及障碍因素诊断[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2014, 28(12): 32-37
	Ni Chao, Yang Shengtian. Evaluation of cultivated land intensive use and the diagnosis of its obstacle factors in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2014, 28(12): 32-37
23	宋戈, 梁海鸥, 林佳, 等. 黑龙江省垦区耕地利用综合效益评价及驱动力分析[J]. 经济地理, 2010, 35(5): 835-840
	Song Ge, Liang Haiou, Lin Jia et al. Evaluation on the comprehensive benefit of cultivated land use and analysis on the driving forces in Heilongjiang Reclamation Area[J]. Economic Geography, 2010, 35(5): 835-840
24	李丹, 曲建光, 王帅. 黑龙江省耕地非农化的空间格局与重心曲线分析[J]. 测绘科学, 2021, 46(2): 171-177
	Li Dan, Qu Jianguang, Wang Shuai. Analysis of spatial pattern and gravity center curve of cultivated land conversion in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Science of Surveying and Mapping, 2021, 46(2): 171-177
25	刘浩然, 吴克宁, 宋文, 等. 黑龙江粮食产能及其影响因素研究[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2019, 40(07): 164-170
	Liu Haoran, Wu kening, Song Wen et al. Study on the grain productivity and its influenceing factors in Heilongjiang[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2019, 40(07): 164-170
26	鲁学军, 尚伟涛, 周和颐. 基于视觉思维的人机交互遥感解译模式研究[J]. 遥感信息, 2013, 28(60): 6-12
	Lu Xuejun, Shang Weitao, Zhou Heyi. Resarch on human-machine interactive remote sensing interpreting mode based on visual thinking[J]. Remote Sensing Information, 2013, 28(60): 6-12
27	Jiyuan Liu, Mingliang Liu, Hanqin Tian et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of China’s cropland during 1990–2000: An analysis based on landsat TM data[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2005, 98(4): 442-456 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2005.08.012
28	黑龙江省农业区划办公室. 黑龙江省综合农业区划[M]. 牡丹江: 黑龙江朝鲜民族出版社, 1985.
	Agricultural Division office of Heilongjiang Province. Comprehensive agricultural regionalization in Heilongjiang Province. Mudanjiang: Heilongjiang Korean Nationality Press, 1985.
29	王越, 宋戈, 王盼盼. 松嫩高平原土地利用类型变化特征及时空格局研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2017, 31(4): 61-66
	Wang Yue, Song Ge, Wang Panpan. The characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of land use types change in Songnen high plain[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2017, 31(4): 61-66
30	王劲峰, 徐成东. 地理探测器: 原理与展望[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(1): 116-134 doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701010
	Wang Jinfeng, Xu Chengdong. Geodetector: Principle and prospective[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1): 116-134 doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701010
31	李凡, 强文丽, 刘晓洁, 等. 中国县域肉类生产的时空演变及影响因素[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(5): 1224-1237 doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210511
	Li Fan, Qiang Wenli, Liu Xiaojie et al. Spatio-temporal evolution of meat production in China’s counties and its influencing factors[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2021, 36(5): 1224-1237 doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210511
32	钟韵, 赵蓓蕾, 李寒. 广州市制造业与生产性服务业协同集聚与空间相似性[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(3): 437-445
	Zhong Yun, Zhao Beilei, Li Han. Co-agglomeration and spatial similarity: Based on the analysis of manufac-turing and producer services in Guangzhou, China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2021, 41(3): 437-445
33	郭付友, 佟连军, 仇方道, 等. 黄河流域生态经济走廊绿色发展时空分异特征与影响因素识别[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(03): 726-739
	Guo Fuyou, Tong Lianjun, Qiu Fangdao et al. Spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of green development in the eco-economic corridor of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(03): 726-739
34	Gale H F, Hu D H. Food safety pressures push integration in China’s agricultural sector[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2012, 94(2): 483-488 doi: 10.1093/ajae/aar069
35	Jin S S, Zhou J H. Adoption of food safety and quality standards by China’s agricultural cooperatives[J]. Food Control, 2011, 22(2): 204-208 doi: 10.1016/j.foodcont.2010.06.021
36	罗翔, 曾菊新, 朱媛媛, 等. 谁来养活中国: 耕地压力在粮食安全中的作用及解释[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(12): 2216-2226
	Luo Xiang, Zeng Juxin, Zhu Yuanyuan et al. Who will feed China: The role and explanation of China’s farmland pressure in food security[J]. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(12): 2216-2226
37	张利国, 陈苏. 中国人均粮食占有量时空演变及驱动因素[J]. 经济地理, 2015, 35(3): 171-177
	Zhang Liguo, Chen Su. Empirical analysis on spatio-temporal evolution and driving forces of per capita grain possession in China[J]. Economic Geography, 2015, 35(3): 171-177
38	蒋敏, 李秀彬, 辛良杰, 等. 南方水稻复种指数变化对国家粮食产能的影响及其政策启示[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 79(1): 32-43 doi: 10.11821/dlxb201901003
	Jiang Min, Li Xiubin, Xin Liangjie et al. The impact of paddy rice multiple cropping index changes in southern China on national grain production capacity and its policy implications[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 79(1): 32-43 doi: 10.11821/dlxb201901003
39	刘光盛, 王红梅, 胡月明, 等. 基于不同调查时点数据的黑龙江省土地利用变化及政策驱动分析[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2015, 36(5): 869-875
	Liu Guangsheng, Wang Hongmei, Hu Yueming et al. Land use change and its relating to policies in Heilongjiang Province based on data of different surveys point[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2015, 36(5): 869-875

转换方向	类型	1980—1990年		1990—2000年		2000—2010年		2010—2015年
转换方向	类型	面积/km²	变化比例/%	面积/km²	变化比例/%	面积/km²	变化比例/%	面积/km²	变化比例%
耕地转入	林地→耕地	2576.47	21.5	9134.62	38.6	1342.28	22.3	902.78	27.5
	草地→耕地	2993.90	25	6924.82	29.3	725.85	12.1	387.17	11.8
	建设用地→耕地	135.01	1.1	246.71	1.0	176.34	2.9	105.01	3.2
	水域→耕地	73.87	0.6	475.62	2.0	177.82	3.0	157.17	4.8
	未利用地→耕地	4749.82	39.6	4147.28	17.5	1351.50	22.5	1074.83	32.7
	合计	10529.07	87.8	20929.05	88.4	3773.79	62.8	2626.96	80
耕地转出	耕地→林地	376.20	3.3	1035.55	4.4	940.17	15.6	101.62	3.1
	耕地→草地	265.75	2.2	421.72	1.8	577.62	9.6	70.84	2.2
	耕地→建设用地	290.84	2.4	351.52	1.5	261.03	4.4	309.93	9.3
	耕地→水域	70.84	0.5	257.72	1.2	144.52	2.4	41.85	1.3
	耕地→未利用地	454.12	3.8	639.23	2.7	314.59	5.2	135.10	4.1
	总计	1457.75	12.2	2705.74	11.6	2237.93	37.2	659.34	20

年份	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇
注：X₁为人口数量；X₂为农业机械化程度；X₃为城镇化水平；X₄为高程；X₅为坡度；X₆为政策因素；X₇为GDP。
1980—1990	0.1836	0.1768	0.1545	0.1037	0.0862	0.0939	0.1471
1990—2000	0.3035	0.2840	0.2732	0.1827	0.2056	0.2669	0.2697
2000—2010	0.1054	0.2137	0.2375	0.0629	0.0438	0.2659	0.2546
2010—2015	0.0086	0.1352	0.1736	0.0061	0.0047	0.0132	0.1529

[1]	Zong Huiming, Ji Xin. Spatial Characteristics and Driving Factors of Expansion of Residential Land Use in Chongqing Urban Area from 1999 to 2018 [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(7): 1256-1265.
[2]	Han Mei, Kong Xianglun, Li Yunlong, Wei Fan, Kong Fanbiao, Huang Shuping. Eco-environmental Effects and Its Spatial Heterogeneity of ‘Ecological-production-living’ Land Use Transformation in the Yellow River Delta [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(6): 1009-1018.
[3]	Li Luqi, Kong Xiang. A Scientometric Analysis on the Agent-based Modelling of Cities as Complex Systems [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(5): 797-803.
[4]	Zhang Wenbin, Zhang Zhibin, Dong Jianhong, Zhang Huailin, Gao Fawen, Gong Weimin. Transformation and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Utilization Function from a Multi-scale Perspective in Gansu Province [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(5): 900-910.
[5]	Cheng Hao, Yang Zhao. From Mass Tourism to Rural Stay: A Meta-approach to Driving Force and a Hypothesis for Rural Stay Destination [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(1): 83-91.
[6]	Hu Yuchen, Liu Yanjun, Sun Hongri. Process and Factors of Urban Growth and Shrinkage: A Case Study of Mining Cities in Heilongjiang Province [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(9): 1450-1459.
[7]	Meng Jijun, Jiang Song, Laba Zhuoma, Zhang Weijia. The Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Land Use Conflict in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Based on Landscape Pattern [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(9): 1553-1562.
[8]	Yu Zhengsong, Cheng Yeqing, Li Xiaojian, Sun Dongqi. Spatial Evolution Process, Motivation and Restructuring of "Production Living-Ecology" in Industrial Town: A Case Study on Qugou Town in Henan Province [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(4): 646-656.
[9]	Ma Xuefeng, Liu Yulin, Tan Jiaxin. The Practice and Development Path of Rural Revitalization Driven by Tourism: Taking Wulingyuan District of Zhangjiajie City as An Example [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(12): 2019-2026.
[10]	Zhao Pengjun, Wan Jie. The Key Technologies of Integrated Urban Transport-land Use Model: Theory Base and Development Trends [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(1): 12-21.
[11]	Liu Jing, Jin Xiaobin, Xu Weiyi, Yang Xuhong, Cao Shuai, Xu Cuilan, Sui Xueyan, Liu Min, Zhou Yinkang. Evaluation of Cultivated Land Fragmentation and Guidance of Land Consolidation at Provincial Level [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(5): 817-826.
[12]	Wang Junzhi, Xue Zhizhong, Zhang Chi, Chang Yiran. Spatio-temporal Evolution of Saline-alkali Cultivated Land and Its Impact on Productivity in Hetao Plain of Inner Mongolia [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(5): 827-835.
[13]	Guoming Du, Yaqian Zhao, Dongmei Li. Regional Poverty Pattern and Its Influence Mechanism in Cultivated Land Resource-rich Area: Taking Lanxi County of Heilongjiang Province as an Example [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(4): 671-679.
[14]	Junfeng Tian, Binyan Wang, Shijun Wang. Urban Land Use Efficiency and Its Coupling Relationship in the Three Provinces of Northeast China [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(2): 305-315.
[15]	Zhou Jia, Wang Yuxuan, Liu Xuerong, Shi Xiaocui, Cai Chunmiao. Spatial Temporal Differences of Carbon Emissions and Carbon Compensation in China Based on Land Use Change [J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(12): 1955-1961.

Spatial and Temporal Changes and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land in Heilongjiang Province

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 5

References 39

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0