一体化进程对旅游经济的空间溢出效应——以长三角城市群为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.09.006

Abstract

Abstract:

Using the panel data of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration to calculate the integration index, this article reveals the spatial spillover effect of integration process on tourism economy by means of spatial Durbin model (SDM). The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the spatial distribution of the integration index of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is unbalanced, showing a decreasing pattern from the provincial capital to the surrounding areas on the whole. Secondly, the SDM can fairly estimate the spillover effect of integration process. From the estimation results of the SDM, the integration process of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has a significant spillover effect on tourism economy. Every 1% increase in the process of local integration will promote the tourism economy of surrounding areas to increase by 0.575%. As far as the local effect is concerned, each dimension of integration has a significant positive impact on tourism economy, and infrastructure integration is one of the more important factors. In terms of the spillover effect, each dimension of integration on tourism economy is lower than local effect, and infrastructure integration has a certain negative impact on tourism economy of surrounding areas. Lastly, in the future, the high-quality development of tourism in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration should not only attach importance to local integration, but also spatial spillover effect of integration, create a good surrounding environment, issue relevant policies, and strengthen regional coordination and cooperation.

Key words: integration process, tourism economy, spatial Dubin model, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

CLC Number:

F592.99

Fang Yelin, Cheng Xuelan, Su Xueqing, Bao Jie. The Spatial Spillover Effect of Integration Progress on Tourism Economy: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(9): 1546-1555.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

References 34

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目标层	一级指标	二级指标	指标方向	指标权重
注：二级指标选取详见参考文献[18~24]；指标权重通过熵值法计算得出。
一体化进程	经济一体化（EC）	人均GDP	正	0.102
		经济偏离度	逆	0.083
		经济开放程度：进口额/出口额	正	0.070
	基础设施一体化（FC）	交通运输建设财政支出/总支出	正	0.106
		医疗卫生财政支出/总支出	正	0.069
		文化建设财政支出/总支出	正	0.074
	城乡一体化（UC）	城镇化率	正	0.111
		城镇居民人均可支配收入/农村居民可支配收入	逆	0.067
		城镇居民恩格尔系数/农村居民恩格尔系数	逆	0.061
	空间一体化（SC）	资金流动：信贷总额/GDP总量	正	0.071
		信息流动：邮电业务总量/GDP总量	正	0.063
		技术流动：科学技术财政支出/总支出	正	0.123

年份	TR	t值(TR)	EC	t值(EC)	FC	t值(FC)	UC	t值(UC)	SC	t值(SC)
注：^*、^、^*分别表示显著性小于0.01、0.05、0.1的统计检验；TR为旅游经济；EC为经济一体化；FC为基础设施一体化；UC为城乡一体化；SC为空间一体化。
2011	0.120^***	3.180	0.272^***	2.574	0.179^*	1.730	0.188^*	1.695	0.161	1.510
2012	0.116^***	2.822	0.260^**	2.471	0.224^**	2.037	0.177	1.497	0.109^*	1.940
2013	0.150^***	2.759	0.282^***	2.641	0.208^*	1.898	0.182^*	1.810	0.116^*	1.684
2014	0.167^**	2.513	0.287^***	2.633	0.191^*	1.772	0.175^**	2.292	0.108^**	2.481
2015	0.185^***	2.776	0.367^***	3.058	0.235^**	2.052	0.180^**	2.379	0.135^**	2.210
2016	0.174^***	2.819	0.307^***	2.615	0.252^**	2.175	0.182^*	1.881	0.118^*	1.823
2017	0.157^***	2.732	0.312^***	2.673	0.149^**	2.120	0.185^**	2.156	0.183^**	2.523
2018	0.157^***	2.757	0.311^***	2.683	0.106^**	2.071	0.189^***	2.573	0.166^***	2.652

统计量	数值	P值	统计量	数值	P值
LM-spatial lag	15.362	0.000	Wald-spatial lag	14.440	0.006
Robust LM-spatial lag	4.335	0.037	Wald-spatial error	16.000	0.003
LM-spatial error	11.550	0.001	LR-spatial lag	14.110	0.006
Robust LM-spatial error	6.782	0.009	LR-spatial error	12.510	0.014
LR检验（空间固定效应）	46.380	0.000	LR 检验（时间固定效应）	516.620	0.000
Hausman检验	72.380	0.000

变量	系数	t值	变量	系数	t值
注：^*、^、^*分别表示显著性小于0.01、0.05、0.1的统计检验；EC 为经济一体化； FC 为基础设施一体化； UC 为城乡一体化； SC 为空间一体化；LogL(Log-likelihood)表示模型的对数似然值；w为解释变量的空间滞后项，ρ为空间溢出效应。
EC	0.313^**	2.230	w×EC	0.446^**	2.100
FC	0.534^**	2.520	w×FC	-0.081	1.360
UC	0.144^*	1.940	w×UC	0.053^**	1.990
SC	0.488^***	3.820	w×SC	0.187^***	3.110
ρ	0.575^***	8.090	Adj.R²	0.763
Log L	187.761

变量	直接效应		溢出效应		总效应
变量	回归系数	t值	回归系数	t值	回归系数	t值
注：^*、^、^*分别表示显著性小于0.01、0.05、0.1的统计检验； EC 为经济一体化； FC 为基础设施一体化； UC 为城乡一体化； SC 为空间一体化。
EC	0.451^*	1.800	0.353^**	2.020	0.804^**	2.150
FC	0.634^***	2.650	-0.016	1.390	0.618^*	1.660
UC	0.123^*	1.910	0.073^***	3.330	0.196^**	2.070
SC	0.507^***	3.210	0.147^***	3.500	0.654^***	3.820

The Spatial Spillover Effect of Integration Progress on Tourism Economy: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

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