SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11): 1912-1922.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.11.006
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Shi Dehao1(), Yu Tao2(
), Wang Lei3,4
Received:
2021-10-29
Revised:
2022-02-13
Accepted:
2022-07-15
Online:
2022-11-30
Published:
2022-11-20
Contact:
Yu Tao
E-mail:sdhdouble@foxmail.com;taoyu@nju.edu.cn
CLC Number:
Shi Dehao, Yu Tao, Wang Lei. The Impact of High-speed Railway on the Industrial Structure of County-level Units: Taking the Yangtze River Delta as an Example[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2022, 42(11): 1912-1922.
Table 1
Variables about the impact of HSR opening on industrial structure and descriptive statistics
变量种类 | 变量 | 符号 | 定义 | 均值 | 标准差 | 最小值 | 最大值 |
因变量 | 第二产业 | Ind2/100万元 | 第二产业的产值 | 218.09 | 580.86 | 0.52 | 9251.40 |
第三产业 | Ind3/100万元 | 第三产业的产值 | 208.16 | 884.67 | 0.85 | 20783.47 | |
产业结构 | IndR | 以第三产业和第二产业的产值之比来度量产业结构 | 0.84 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 4.49 | |
虚拟变量 | 县级单元是否开通高铁 | Treat | 有无差异:开通高铁的单元为1,否则为0 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
具体年份是否开通高铁 | T | 前后差异:开通高铁之后为1,开通高铁之前为0 | 2008.50 | 5.19 | 2000.00 | 2017.00 | |
某个县级单元在具体年份内是否开通高铁 | HSR | 由Treat乘以T获得 | 0.13 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
控制变量 | 县级单元的具体行政类型(城市等级) | Admin | 根据县级单元的行政等级划分为5档 | 4.30 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 5.00 |
常住人口 | Pop/万人 | 常住人口数 | 101.72 | 162.68 | 7.24 | 2421.47 | |
人均生产总值 | pGDP/元 | 人均生产总值 | 33848.01 | 33128.08 | 1681.00 | 218984.10 | |
固定资产投资 | FAI/100万元 | 固定资产投资 | 184.95 | 474.55 | 0.13 | 7246.60 | |
房地产投资 | REI/100万元 | 房地产投资 | 57.03 | 210.44 | 0.00 | 3856.53 | |
公共财政支出 | PFE/100万元 | 公共财政支出 | 59.07 | 283.64 | 0.48 | 7547.62 | |
教育支出 | Edu/100万元 | 教育支出 | 10.02 | 39.49 | 0.06 | 874.10 | |
专利数 | Patent/项 | 专利数 | 5682.75 | 31313.68 | 1.00 | 954400.00 | |
城镇化率 | Nag/% | 非农人口占总人口的比例 | 83.70 | 12.26 | 37.02 | 99.00 |
Table 2
The impact of the opening of HSR on the industrial structure of county-level units
变量 | 因变量:产业结构 | ||||||||
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 大城市组 | 8 中等城市组 | 9 小城市组 | |
注:列1~6是长三角地区所有县级单元逐步回归结果;列7~9分别是人口规模大、中等、小城市组县级单元的回归结果;***、**、* 分别表示在1%,5%和10%水平下显著;括号内数值为t值;变量解释见 | |||||||||
HSR | 0.132*** | 0.086*** | 0.104*** | 0.164*** | 0.114*** | 0.101*** | 0.265*** | 0.146*** | 0.028 |
(7.56) | (4.78) | (5.93) | (8.17) | (5.43) | (4.81) | (6.82) | (5.59) | (0.82) | |
Treat | −0.077 | −0.039 | 0.027 | 0.018 | 0.154** | 0.159** | 2.721*** | 0.782*** | 0.342*** |
(−1.43) | (−0.69) | (0.48) | (0.30) | (2.25) | (2.43) | (10.14) | (7.77) | (2.91) | |
T | −0.025 | −0.009 | −0.025 | 0.080*** | 0.053*** | −0.045** | 0.184*** | −0.069** | −0.015 |
(−1.36) | (−0.50) | (−1.38) | (−3.82) | (−2.68) | (−2.25) | (−4.85) | (−2.38) | (−0.58) | |
pGDP | 0.309*** | 0.380*** | 0.519*** | 0.497*** | 0.440*** | 0.302*** | −0.375*** | −0.657*** | |
(−11.89) | (−12.29) | (−14.35) | (−13.79) | (−10.70) | (−3.69) | (−7.97) | (−5.06) | ||
Pop | 0.399*** | 0.370*** | 0.635*** | 0.534*** | 0.055 | −0.443* | −1.653*** | ||
(−5.46) | (−4.17) | (−5.84) | (−4.74) | (0.38) | (−1.84) | (−3.07) | |||
Edu | −0.028** | −0.023 | 0.038 | 0.101** | −0.049 | 0.100 | |||
(−1.97) | (−0.89) | (1.25) | (2.03) | (−1.25) | (1.43) | ||||
FAI | 0.148*** | 0.130*** | 0.117*** | −0.092*** | −0.129*** | ||||
(−15.82) | (−11.21) | (−6.39) | (−7.68) | (−4.28) | |||||
PFE | 0.199*** | 0.271*** | −0.266*** | −0.064 | |||||
(−4.31) | (−4.70) | (−5.48) | (−0.43) | ||||||
常数项 | 1.012*** | 3.693*** | 4.875*** | 6.043*** | 6.394*** | 5.871*** | 3.479*** | 4.934*** | 9.319*** |
(26.45) | (16.27) | (14.29) | (15.50) | (15.09) | (12.61) | (4.24) | (7.03) | (5.22) | |
个体固定 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
时间固定 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
样本量 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 1368 | 1242 | 972 |
R2 | 0.6082 | 0.6334 | 0.637 | 0.6652 | 0.7158 | 0.7191 | 0.7291 | 0.724 | 0.7809 |
Table 3
The impact of the opening of HSR on the secondary industry of county-level units
变量 | 因变量:第二产业产值(Ind2) | ||||||||
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 大城市组 | 8 中等城市组 | 9 小城市组 | |
注:列1~9解释见表2;***、**、* 分别表示在1%,5%和10%水平下显著;括号内数值为t值;变量解释见 | |||||||||
HSR | −0.181*** | 0.215*** | −0.100*** | −0.100*** | −0.067*** | −0.105*** | −0.215*** | −0.105*** | −0.004 |
(−8.80) | (−9.43) | (−8.94) | (−8.94) | (−5.88) | (−8.72) | (−7.01) | (−5.90) | (−0.20) | |
Treat | 0.514*** | 0.459*** | −0.006 | −0.085* | −0.320*** | −0.387*** | 0.425*** | 0.413*** | −1.000*** |
(11.6) | (10.28) | (−0.18) | (−1.81) | (−6.33) | (−7.2) | (4.44) | (3.78) | (−5.04) | |
T | 0.021 | 0.044** | 0.040*** | 0.040*** | 0.020* | 0.052*** | 0.165*** | 0.063*** | −0.003 |
(1.09) | (2.15) | (3.50) | (3.50) | (1.84) | (4.54) | (5.87) | (3.08) | (−0.19) | |
Pop | 0.401*** | 2.334*** | 2.334*** | 2.434*** | 2.502*** | 2.047*** | 2.704*** | 3.439*** | |
(3.50) | (49.81) | (49.81) | (48.15) | (37.11) | (19.61) | (13.81) | (12.60) | ||
pGDP | 1.332*** | 1.332*** | 1.292*** | 1.398*** | 1.301*** | 1.444*** | 1.619*** | ||
(64.35) | (64.35) | (63.26) | (57.12) | (24.92) | (42.80) | (28.39) | |||
Admin | 0.079* | 0.241*** | 0.301*** | 0.545*** | 0.36*** | 0.721*** | |||
(1.87) | (5.17) | (6.19) | (5.74) | (5.56) | (4.89) | ||||
FAI | 0.091*** | 0.104*** | 0.128*** | 0.088*** | 0.092*** | ||||
(18.04) | (20.98) | (11.7) | (10.88) | (11.82) | |||||
Edu | −0.012 | −0.014 | 0.069** | −0.059** | |||||
(−0.69) | (−0.46) | (2.28) | (−2.03) | ||||||
常数项 | 1.704*** | 1.133*** | 13.136*** | 13.453*** | 14.000*** | 15.302*** | 14.897*** | 16.422*** | 20.251*** |
(39.05) | (6.69) | (−58.76) | (−38.39) | (−38.5) | (−37.81) | (−16.79) | (−21.54) | (−14.34) | |
个体固定 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
时间固定 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
样本量 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 1368 | 1242 | 972 |
R2 | 0.9737 | 0.9847 | 0.9920 | 0.9920 | 0.9925 | 0.9929 | 0.9912 | 0.9903 | 0.9926 |
Table 4
The impact of the opening of HSR on the tertiary industry of county-level units
变量 | 因变量:第三产业产值(Ind3) | ||||||||
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 大城市组 | 8 中等城市组 | 9 小城市组 | |
注:列1~9解释见表2;***、**、* 分别表示在1%,5%和10%水平下显著;括号内数值为t值;变量解释见 | |||||||||
HSR | 0.001 | 0.086*** | 0.020** | 0.033*** | 0.033*** | 0.028*** | 0.059*** | 0.050*** | −0.003 |
(0.10) | (6.29) | (2.30) | (3.86) | (3.90) | (3.38) | (3.48) | (3.28) | (−0.22) | |
Treat | 0.399*** | 0.336*** | 0.001 | 0.050 | 0.050 | 0.056 | 0.285*** | 0.475*** | 0.113** |
(10.30) | (9.82) | (0.02) | (1.39) | (1.40) | (1.57) | (7.24) | (4.09) | (1.91) | |
T | −0.001 | −0.031** | 0.027** | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.014* | 0.009 | −0.027* | 0.035** |
(−0.08) | (−2.07) | (2.47) | (1.50) | (1.47) | (1.68) | (0.58) | (−1.79) | (2.15) | |
pGDP | 0.430*** | 0.811*** | 0.697*** | 0.695*** | 0.701*** | 0.699*** | 0.766*** | 0.575*** | |
(21.18) | (54.72) | (27.78) | (26.02) | (26.52) | (17.44) | (12.39) | (9.11) | ||
Pop | 1.970*** | 1.779*** | 1.778*** | 1.795*** | 1.847*** | 1.744*** | 1.664*** | ||
(53.19) | (26.76) | (26.76) | (27.94) | (26.50) | (10.31) | (6.64) | |||
Patent | 0.021*** | 0.021*** | 0.020*** | 0.018*** | −0.026*** | −0.040*** | |||
(−6.98) | (−6.78) | (−6.43) | (−4.18) | (−4.03) | (−6.44) | ||||
Nag | 0.013*** | 0.033 | 0.333** | −0.121 | 0.019 | ||||
(0.17) | (0.43) | (2.49) | (−0.81) | (0.14) | |||||
REI | −0.012*** | 0.026*** | −0.010 | −0.006 | |||||
(−2.91) | (−3.28) | (−1.07) | (−0.70) | ||||||
常数项 | 1.722*** | 2.003*** | 8.097*** | 7.042*** | 7.079*** | −7.273*** | 7.712*** | −6.719*** | −5.904*** |
(77.84) | (−11.36) | (−49.57) | (−24.45) | (−19.43) | (−19.53) | (−13.23) | (−9.68) | (−6.40) | |
个体固定 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
时间固定 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
样本量 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 3553 | 1368 | 1242 | 972 |
R2 | 0.9858 | 0.9888 | 0.9944 | 0.9965 | 0.9965 | 0.9966 | 0.9968 | 0.9934 | 0.9948 |
Table 5
The time lagging of the HSR effect
变量 | 产业结构 | 第二产业 | 第三产业 |
注:***、**、* 分别表示在1%,5%和10%水平下显著;括号内数值为t值;HSR-treat为高铁开通当年对因变量的影响系数;HSR-1st、HSR-2nd、HSR-3rd分别为HSR-n之后 | |||
HSR-treat | 0.045*** | 0.077 | 0.041* |
(2.62) | (1.31) | (1.94) | |
HSR-1st | −0.011 | −0.119** | 0.026** |
(−0.51) | (−2.01) | (2.17) | |
HSR-2nd | −0.005 | −0.092** | −0.014 |
(−0.19) | (−2.04) | (−0.53) | |
HSR-3rd | 0.036** | −0.122*** | −0.024 |
(1.98) | (−2.94) | (−1.33) | |
个体固定 | Yes | Yes | Yes |
时间固定 | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Table 6
The result of parallel trend test
变量 | 产业结构 | 第二产业 | 第三产业 | |
注:HSR-Bn代表高铁开通前第n年交互项的回归系数;括号内数值为t值。 | ||||
HSR-B4 | 0.003 | −0.025 | 0.005 | |
(0.13) | (−0.76) | (0.15) | ||
HSR-B3 | 0.012 | −0.042 | 0.040 | |
(0.60) | (−1.05) | (0.93) | ||
-HSR-B2 | 0.025 | −0.023 | 0.045 | |
(1.31) | (−0.61) | (0.99) | ||
HSR-B1 | 0.023 | −0.047 | −0.014 | |
(1.07) | (−1.40) | (−0.29) | ||
个体固定 | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
时间固定 | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Table 7
The results of threshold effect test
组别 | 门槛模型 | 门槛值/万人 | F值 | P值 | 不同显著性水平临界值 | 95%置信区间 | ||
1% | 5% | 10% | ||||||
注:***、**表示在1%,5%水平下显著。 | ||||||||
全样本 | 单门槛 | 362.107 | 32.637*** | 0.007 | 28.879 | 19.111 | 14.394 | [119,538] |
大城市组 | 单门槛 | 359.864 | 42.016*** | 0.003 | 38.588 | 28.091 | 21.861 | [322,722] |
中等城市组 | 单门槛 | 55.149 | 21.556** | 0.030 | 37.250 | 17.309 | 12.577 | [52,112] |
小城市组 | 单门槛 | 45.955 | 3.396 | 0.230 | 27.394 | 16.167 | 9.129 | [8,71] |
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