黄土高原人口变化对县域经济系统脆弱性的影响研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.11.015

Abstract

Abstract:

Population and economic development is important research contents in the field of sustainable development, and is an important carrier for realizing rural revitalization and regional high-quality development. In order to promote the high-quality development of the Loess Plateau region, it is necessary to have a new understanding and judgment on the relationship between population and economic vulnerability in the region of the Loess Plateau. This paper takes the county of Loess Plateau region as an example, utilizes the sensitivity-resilience model to evaluate the characteristics of economic vulnerability and its temporal and spatial changes in the Loess Plateau since 2000, and explores the effect of population changes on county economic vulnerability by ArcGIS spatial technology and gray correlation analysis. The results are as follows: 1) In 2000, the economic vulnerability grades of counties in the Loess Plateau were dominated by low and lower vulnerability grades, while in 2010, the area of low vulnerability areas decreased, and the areas of medium and high vulnerability increased significantly. In 2017, the area of low and low vulnerability grades increased, and the area of medium and high vulnerability areas decreased. In general, from 2000 to 2017, the overall economic vulnerability of counties in the Loess Plateau showed a significant trend of ‘increase first and then decrease’. 2) The overall economic vulnerability of the county in the Loess Plateau shows the spatial pattern of “high in the south and low in the north”. The counties with high and relatively high levels are mainly concentrated in the area of Liupan Mountains and Luliang Mountains; the middle-level counties are concentrated in the area of Longdong, Taihang Mountains and Luliang Mountains; the vulnerability level of the surrounding areas of counties, districts and prefectures under the jurisdiction of the provincial capital city is the lowest. 3) The population outflow rate, gender ratio, and the proportion of the elderly population, which represent population changes, are the key factors affecting the county economic vulnerability of the Loess Plateau, and the influencing factors of population changes on economic vulnerability in different periods are different.

Key words: economic vulnerability, population changes, county, the Loess Plateau region

CLC Number:

K902

Yuan Qianwen, Chen Jia, Han Wenwei, Yang Xinjun. Impact of Population Changes on County Economic Vulnerability in the Loess Plateau[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2022, 42(11): 2006-2018.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1

Table 1

The evaluation index system of county economic vulnerability

目标层	准则层	指标层	指标含义	性质	权重
注：1.产业结构多样化指数γ反映了产业内部结构的多样化程度， $ \gamma =1\Bigg/\displaystyle\sum _{i=1}^{n}{{X}_{i}}^{2} $。式中：X_i为产业i产值占总产值的比重，n为产业数量。2. +为正向指标，−为负向指标。
县域经济系统脆弱性	敏感性（+）	第一产业增加值/万元	反映地区宏观经济发展状况，在一定区域一定时间内第一产业创造的新的价值	+	0.083
		第二产业增加值/万元	反映地区宏观经济发展状况，在一定区域一定时间内第二产业创造的新的价值	+	0.171
		非农就业占比/%	反映县域就业情况	−	0.012
		人均社会消费品零售额/元	反映该地区人民生活水平和购买社会消耗品能力	−	0.005
		规模以上工业企业总产值/万元	反映该地区工业生产总规模和工业经济实力	−	0.003
		第三产业产值占GDP比重/%	反映区域经济水平和产业结构优化水平	−	0.013
		城乡差异指数	反映城乡贫富差距	+	0.063
	应对能力（−）	人均GDP/元	反映区域内各个县域的经济实力和财政积累能力	+	0.102
		财政自给率/%	反映地方财政的自给自足能力	−	0.088
		城乡居民储蓄存款余额/万元	反映人民的财富拥有状况和经济活跃度以及地区经济实力	−	0.004
		农业机械总动力/万kW	是指用于农业生产中各种动力机械的动力总和。反映地区农业机械总体发展水平及技术水平的重要指标	+	0.080
		产业结构多样化指数	反映城市产业结构状况，即产业内部经济结构的平衡性	+	0.020
		固定资产投资额/万元	反映县域经济投资水平，能够展示区域固定资产投资规模、结构以及发展速度	+	0.144
		义务教育在校人数/人	反映人口受教育整体状况	+	0.064
		万人医院、卫生院床位数/（床/万人）	反映区域医疗服务水平	+	0.035
		万人社会福利院床位数/（床/万人）	反映医疗卫生水平	+	0.114

Table 1

Table 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Table 3

Table 4

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Table 5

Fig. 6

Table 6

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类型	阈值	2000年		2010年		2017年
类型	阈值	比重/%	面积/km²	比重/%	面积/km²	比重/%	面积/km²
注：土地面积分别以2000年、2010年和2017年统计资料汇编数据为准。
低脆弱度	0.130~0.467	59.68	329017	21.72	119881	39.34	219875
较低脆弱度	0.467~0.684	25.79	142170	36.13	199472	38.77	216691
中等脆弱度	0.684~0.961	8.27	45597	32.58	179823	16.44	91868
较高脆弱度	0.961~1.494	5.58	30759	8.86	48928	4.82	26948
高脆弱度	1.494~2.240	0.69	3782	0.71	3919	0.64	3573

维度	指标	2000年		2010年		2017年
维度	指标	关联度（R）	排序	关联度（R）	排序	关联度（R）	排序
人口结构	老年人口比重	0.897	3	0.891	2	0.889	2
	城镇人口比重	0.815	6	0.823	5	0.844	4
	性别比	0.913	1	0.888	3	0.903	1
人口总量	人口密度	0.827	5	0.760	6	0.788	6
	自然增长率	0.890	4	0.852	4	0.832	5
	人口外流率	0.898	2	0.894	1	0.889	3

类型	低脆弱度			中等脆弱度			高脆弱度
类型	2000年	2010年	2017年	2000年	2010年	2017年	2000年	2010年	2017年
净流入Ⅰ型	37.31	29.51	36.99	15.00	19.77	37.78	0.00	10.34	52.63
净流出Ⅰ型	62.69	69.67	61.27	85.00	76.74	60.00	100.00	89.66	42.11
净流出Ⅱ型	0.00	0.82	1.73	0.00	3.49	2.22	0.00	0.00	5.26

类型	低脆弱度			中等脆弱度			高脆弱度
类型	2000年	2010年	2017年	2000年	2010年	2017年	2000年	2010年	2017年
男少女多	7.46	22.13	17.92	0.00	26.74	28.89	0.00	13.79	15.79
男女平衡	32.84	27.87	36.99	50.00	31.40	28.89	37.50	31.04	21.05
男多女少	59.70	50.00	45.09	50.00	41.86	42.22	62.50	55.17	63.16

类型	低脆弱度			中等脆弱度			高脆弱度
类型	2000年	2010年	2017年	2000年	2010年	2017年	2000年	2010年	2017年
年轻型	3.48%	0.00%	0.00%	5.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
成年型	74.13%	35.25%	31.21%	95.00%	19.77%	11.11%	100.00%	44.83%	42.11%
老年型	22.39%	64.75%	68.79%	0.00%	80.23%	88.89%	0.00%	55.17%	57.89%

Impact of Population Changes on County Economic Vulnerability in the Loess Plateau

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