黄河流域水资源利用与经济增长脱钩及影响因素分解

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2023.01.012

Abstract

Abstract:

Water resources are the most rigid constraint for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. This paper first measures the changes of water footprint of the Yellow River basin from a structural perspective, and then analyzes the decoupling of water footprint and economic growth based on Tapio decoupling model and Kaya-LMDI decomposition model, and identifies the driving factors of water resources utilization change from the technical effect, structural effect, scale effect, endowment effect, urbanization effect and population effect. We found that: 1) the water footprint of the Yellow River basin is on the rise, the proportion of agricultural water footprint is as high as 85%, and the upside down problem of water structure and industrial structure is prominent; 2) The spatial distribution of water resource and water footprint does not match in the upper and lower reaches of the Yellow River basin, and the middle and lower reaches face more serious water resources restriction. 3) The relationship between water footprint and economic growth is mainly weak decoupling, but the provinces began to shift to strong decoupling in the period of 2015-2019. 4) Scale effect, urbanization effect, and population effect play a role in pulling water footprint changes, while technological effect, structural effect, and endowment effect play an inhibitory role in water footprint changes, but there is still potential for improvement. There are certain differences in influencing factors in different provinces and regions. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the research and extension of water resources utilization technology, promote the intensive development of agriculture, improve the efficiency of agricultural water use, further optimize the industrial structure and new urbanization construction, alleviate the dilemma of water resources constraints, and promote the high-quality economic development of the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: the Yellow River Basin, high-quality development, water footprint, Tapio decoupling, Kaya-LMDI model

Li Ruzi, Bai Yi, Zhou Yunnan, Huang Shuqi, Yan Zhenning, Li Yingzi, Zhao Hongbo. Decoupling and decomposition of driving factors of water resources utilization and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2023, 43(1): 110-118.

Figures/Tables 6

Table 1

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Table 2

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脱钩状态		脱钩弹性值（e）	ΔWF	ΔGDP
注：ΔWF为水足迹变化量，ΔGDP为国内生产总值（GDP）变化量。
负脱钩	扩张性负脱钩	e > 1.2	+	+
	弱负脱钩	0 < e < 0.8	-	-
	强负脱钩	e < 0	+	-
	衰退脱钩	e > 1.2	-	-
脱钩	弱脱钩	0 < e < 0.8	+	+
脱钩	强脱钩	e < 0	-	+
连接	增长连接	0.8 < e < 1.2	+	+
连接	衰退连接	0.8 < e < 1.2	-	-

年份	青海	四川	甘肃	宁夏	内蒙古	陕西	山西	河南	山东	黄河流域
注：SD为强脱钩，WD为弱脱钩，END为扩张性负脱钩，EC为增长连接。
2005—2006	WD	SD	SD	WD	WD	WD	SD	SD	SD	SD
2006—2007	WD	SD	SD	WD	SD	WD	WD	WD	SD	WD
2007—2008	SD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD
2008—2009	SD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	SD	WD	WD	WD
2009—2010	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD
2010—2011	WD	WD	EC	EC	EC	WD	END	WD	EC	WD
2011—2012	SD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD
2012—2013	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD
2013—2014	WD	WD	WD	EC	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD
2014—2015	WD	WD	WD	SD	WD	WD	SD	WD	WD	WD
2015—2016	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD
2016—2017	SD	SD	WD	WD	SD	SD	WD	SD	WD	SD
2017—2018	WD	WD	WD	WD	EC	SD	SD	WD	SD	WD
2018—2019	WD	SD	WD	WD	WD	WD	WD	SD	SD	SD

Decoupling and decomposition of driving factors of water resources utilization and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin

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