不同情境下公共流域水资源动态一体化调控——以澜湄流域为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2023.08.014

Abstract

Abstract:

The regulation of water resources in public basins is of great practical significance to deal with climate change and alleviate water resources conflicts. From the perspective of integration, according to different hydrological situations, the regulation of water resources in public basins can deal with complex and changeable climate change. This article uses DPSIR model to build the analysis framework of water resources system, and constructs its system dynamics model group to analyze the causal relationship of the water resource system from the perspective of supply and demand. Taking the Lancang-Mekong River Basin as an example, this article uses the system dynamics model to explore the current and future water resources supply and demand of the basin, analyzes its evolution process and regulation mechanism, and carries out simulation research combined with different hydrological scenarios. The results show that: there are great differences in the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources under different hydrological scenarios; Structural measures mainly affect the supply of water resources, while non structural measures mainly affect the demand of water resources. Both of the two types of measures can alleviate the pressure of water resources shortage, but for the more extreme hydrological scenarios, the pressure of water resources shortage will still appear in the future. When the structural measures and non structural measures are implemented at the same time, the supply of water resources has greater flexibility, even under the more extreme hydrological conditions, it can still adjust the balance between supply and demand of water resources, which is conducive to the long-term sustainable development of water resources in the basin. The research results reveal the regulation effect of water resources in different hydrological situations in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin from the perspective of integration, and the impact of various regulation measures on the supply and demand of water resources, which lays a foundation for the joint action of water resources regulation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin.

Key words: DPSIR model, system dynamics, the Lancang-Mekong River Basin

CLC Number:

C939

Xu Hao, Chen Liuxin, Li Qiongfang. Dynamic integrated regulation and control of water resources in public basins under different scenarios: A case study of Lancang-Mekong River Basin[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2023, 43(8): 1451-1462.

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编号	变量	方程	单位
（1）	流域总人口	流域出生人口-流域死亡人口	亿人
（2）	生活总需水量	流域总人口×人均用水定额	10⁸m³
（3）	农业用地总面积	INTEG（农业用地增加面积，2.99973e+07）	hm²
（4）	农业总需水量	（灌溉定额×灌溉面积）×种植结构系数	10⁸m³
（5）	农业总产值量	INTEG（农业产值增加量，503）	亿元
（6）	流域可供水资源	地表供水量＋地下供水量＋生活再生水资源量	10⁸m³
（7）	流域水资源短缺量	流域水资源需求量-流域可供水资源量	10⁸m³
（8）	流域水资源需求量	农业总需水量+生活总需水量+工业需水量+生态需水量	10⁸m³

方案类型	主要变化
方案一	增加流域内水库等水利工程的数量和容量
方案二	降低流域内生活用水方面的人均用水定额
方案三	改变种植结构减少流域内农业用水的灌溉面积
方案四	改变灌溉方式降低流域内农业用水的灌溉定额
方案五	增加水库库容和数量，降低人均用水定额，减少灌溉面积，降低灌溉定额

Dynamic integrated regulation and control of water resources in public basins under different scenarios: A case study of Lancang-Mekong River Basin

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