长三角城市群生态安全评价与时空跃迁特征分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.11.007

Abstract

Abstract:

The PSR model, catastrophe progression method and exploratory spatial temporal data analysis are used to quantitatively characterize the spatial pattern of ecological security levels of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. This article has concluded three findings as follows. Firstly, the ecological security levels of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has increased from 2005 to 2015, but most cities are in the relatively unsafe and relatively safe level, and the overall ecological security level is not in the high level. Secondly, the spatial structure stability of urban ecological security level in the central and southeastern regions of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is better; Nantong has the greatest spatial dependence, while Shanghai has minimal spatial dependence; The analysis of the moving direction of LISA time path shows that the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has strong spatial integration in the ecological security evolution. Thirdly, the spatial cohesion of Moran’s Ι is $ {K}_{t} $=0.698, that means the probability of no type transition is 69.8%, which indicates that there is a certain pattern change in the ecological security level of cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, but it is not easy for their relative position to change. This study discusses the coordinated growth mechanism of regional ecological security, which can provide a theoretical basis for the diagnosis and regulation of ecological security problems of urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Moreover, it also provides relevant reference for the sustainable development of other urban agglomerations.

Key words: catastrophe progression method, exploratory spatial temporal data analysis, ecological security, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

CLC Number:

X826

Zhang Zhonghao, Nie Tiantian, Gao Yang, Tan Shenghui, Gao Jun. Ecological Security Assessment and Spatio-temporal Transition Characteristics in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration[J].SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2022, 42(11): 1923-1931.

Figures/Tables 7

Table 1

The index and their weights of ecological security evaluation in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

系统层	子系统层	准则层	指标层	属性	权重/%
生态安全系统层	压力层	社会压力	${{c} }_{1}$人口自然增长率/‰	负	3.25
			${{c} }_{2}$人口密度/（人/km²）	负	0.97
			${{c} }_{3}$年末城镇登记失业人员数/人	负	0.91
		经济压力	${{c} }_{4}$地区生产总值增长率/%	正	3.24
		经济压力	${{c} }_{5}$地方财政支出占财政收入的比重/%	负	1.82
		环境压力	${{c} }_{6}$每万元工业废水排放量/t	负	3.22
			${{c} }_{7}$每万元工业二氧化硫排放总量/t	负	1.78
			${{c} }_{8}$每万元固体废弃物产生量/t	负	1.35
			${{c} }_{9}$每万元工业烟（粉）尘排放量/t	负	1.13
	状态层	社会状态	${{c} }_{10}$人均公园绿地面积/m²	正	2.86
			${{c} }_{11}$城市化率/%	负	2.24
			${{c} }_{12}$人均道路面积/m²	正	1.94
		经济状态	${{c} }_{13}$城镇居民人均可支配收入/元	正	5.46
			${{c} }_{14}$人均地区生产总值/元	正	5.08
			${{c} }_{15}$农村居民人均可支配收入/元	正	4.27
		环境状态	${{c} }_{16}$森林覆盖率/%	正	8.38
			${{c} }_{17}$水资源总量/10⁸m	正	8.12
			${{c} }_{18}$建成区绿化覆盖率/%	正	4.23
			${{c} }_{19}$空气质量优良率/%	正	3.59
	响应层	社会响应	${{c} }_{20}$每万人在校大学生数/人	正	9.06
			${{c} }_{21}$每万人拥有公共汽车数量/辆	正	4.94
			${{c} }_{22}$每万人医生数/人	正	3.14
		经济响应	${{c} }_{23}$教育支出占财政支出比例/%	正	4.69
			${{c} }_{24}$科技支出占财政支出比例/%	正	4.59
			${{c} }_{25}$第三产业占GDP比例/%	正	4.03
		环境响应	${{c} }_{26}$城镇污水集中处理率/%	正	2.65
			${{c} }_{27}$一般工业固体废弃物综合利用率/%	正	1.74
			${{c} }_{28}$生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	正	1.32

Table 1

Fig. 1

Table 2

Fig. 2

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Fig. 4

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等级	等级名称	突变级数法	常规值
等级	等级名称	目标层	目标层
I	理想状态	(0.990 ~ 1.000）	>0.8
II	安全	[0.977 ~ 0.990）	[0.6 ~ 0.8）
III	较安全	[0.960 ~ 0.977）	[0.4 ~ 0.6）
IV	较不安全	[0.931 ~ 0.960）	[0.2 ~ 0.4）
V	极不安全	(0.920 ~ 0.931）	<0.2

Ecological Security Assessment and Spatio-temporal Transition Characteristics in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

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