Evolution of China’s Spatial Economy and Regional Industrial Shift:Empirical Analysis of Changes in Economic Shares of Chinese Provinces from 1952 to 2010
Received date: 2014-03-27
Request revised date: 2014-06-28
Online published: 2015-01-15
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Through analyzing the changes in economic shares of provinces in China from 1952 to 2010, we studied the evolution of China's spatial economy and regional industrial shift since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Previous studies mostly focused on the development of China’s spatial economy in the post-reform era, while our study used a long time series data set and tried to give the whole picture of the evolution of China’s spatial economy in almost 60 years. We divided the evolution of China's spatial economic pattern into eight phases by using the sequential sample cluster analysis, and then we applied the shift-share analysis to decompose the changes in economic shares of Chinese provinces and analyzed the industry that drove the increase of economic shares of provinces and its shift in different phases, as well as the relationship between the industrial shift and the changes in regional industrial mix and competitive advantages. Our findings showed that since the founding of the People's Republic of China, China's regional economy has experienced the balanced development of the coastal and interior regions, the unbalanced development with priority in the coastal areas, and the relatively balanced development among the eastern, central and western regions in general, at the same time, the average changes in economic shares of provinces tend to decrease over the phases. Before the economic reforms and the opening-up of China, economic shares of different regions in different phases changed dramatically and in different ways, which was mainly driven by the primary and secondary industries. After the economic reforms and the opening-up of China, the regional economy had shifted to the coastal areas evidently with the great increase of economic shares of the eastern and coastal provinces, while the industries that drove the increase of economic shares of coastal regions changed in different phases. Since 2000, China's regional economy has changed a lot, with the shift of regions with the increase of economic shares from the coastal provinces to the central and western provinces. Although the coastal areas still have the relatively high share of secondary industry in their industrial mix, the competitive advantages of secondary industry have shifted from the eastern areas to the central and western areas, which are indicated by the relatively higher growth rate of the secondary industry in the central and western provinces since 2000. Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong in the east have shown more advantages in the tertiary industry with more share of tertiary industry in their industrial mix, which shows the tendency of upgrading and servicisation of regional economy in these areas.
SUN Tie-shan , LIU Xiao-quan , LI Guo-ping . Evolution of China’s Spatial Economy and Regional Industrial Shift:Empirical Analysis of Changes in Economic Shares of Chinese Provinces from 1952 to 2010[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2015 , 35(1) : 56 -65 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.56
Table 1 Changes in economic shares of regions and provinces in China in different phases表1 分阶段中国各地区和各省区经济份额变动情况 |
地区 | 经济份额变动(%) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1952-1958年 | 1958-1960年 | 1960-1966年 | 1966-1980年 | 1980-1986年 | 1986-1992年 | 1992-2001年 | 2001-2010年 | |
东部 | -2.092 | 1.585 | -0.594 | 2.736 | 1.074 | 3.687 | 5.466 | -0.859 |
北京 | 1.409 | 1.022 | -1.065 | 0.530 | -0.218 | -0.214 | 0.688 | -0.191 |
天津 | 0.449 | 0.223 | -0.412 | 0.021 | -0.342 | -0.432 | 0.184 | 0.344 |
河北 | -1.637 | -0.215 | 0.041 | 0.225 | -0.473 | 0.414 | 0.154 | -0.420 |
上海 | 1.484 | 2.780 | -2.791 | -0.317 | -2.028 | -0.786 | 0.506 | -0.878 |
江苏 | -2.016 | -0.264 | 0.947 | 0.755 | 0.433 | 0.531 | 0.480 | 0.766 |
浙江 | -0.585 | -0.359 | 0.423 | 0.636 | 1.111 | 0.106 | 1.057 | -0.015 |
福建 | -0.172 | 0.009 | 0.005 | 0.073 | 0.323 | 0.727 | 0.731 | -0.384 |
山东 | -1.448 | -1.080 | 1.209 | 0.857 | 1.036 | 0.796 | 0.003 | 0.490 |
广东 | 0.423 | -0.531 | 1.049 | -0.044 | 1.232 | 2.544 | 1.664 | -0.570 |
中部 | -0.400 | -1.403 | 1.308 | -0.895 | 0.350 | -2.325 | -1.295 | 0.630 |
山西 | 0.475 | 0.162 | -0.281 | -0.478 | -0.042 | -0.309 | -0.256 | 0.236 |
安徽 | 0.278 | -0.145 | -0.297 | -0.345 | 0.756 | -0.876 | -0.098 | -0.165 |
江西 | -0.639 | -0.054 | 0.507 | -0.347 | -0.142 | -0.181 | -0.204 | 0.158 |
河南 | -1.142 | -0.464 | 0.282 | 0.681 | -0.011 | -0.270 | 0.164 | 0.185 |
湖北 | 0.803 | -0.686 | 0.898 | -0.451 | 0.037 | -0.379 | -0.624 | 0.077 |
湖南 | -0.175 | -0.216 | 0.198 | 0.044 | -0.249 | -0.310 | -0.276 | 0.139 |
西部 | 0.690 | -2.832 | 2.416 | -0.575 | -0.511 | -0.127 | -2.344 | 1.373 |
内蒙古 | 0.210 | 0.171 | -0.077 | -0.723 | 0.324 | -0.254 | -0.047 | 1.096 |
广西 | -0.175 | -0.223 | 0.200 | 0.335 | -0.089 | 0.369 | -0.395 | 0.089 |
重庆 | -0.247 | -0.213 | -0.172 | -0.340 | -0.167 | -0.143 | 0.007 | 0.187 |
四川 | 0.845 | -2.234 | 1.794 | 0.827 | -0.479 | -0.203 | -0.586 | -0.025 |
贵州 | 0.195 | -0.106 | -0.004 | -0.101 | 0.073 | -0.134 | -0.268 | 0.009 |
云南 | -0.109 | -0.167 | 0.528 | -0.245 | -0.032 | 0.502 | -0.417 | -0.319 |
西藏 | -0.082 | 0.031 | 0.046 | -0.012 | -0.022 | -0.047 | 0.000 | -0.012 |
陕西 | 0.326 | 0.056 | -0.061 | -0.245 | -0.004 | -0.106 | -0.198 | 0.465 |
甘肃 | -0.391 | -0.628 | 0.294 | 0.244 | -0.226 | -0.232 | -0.189 | -0.095 |
青海 | 0.114 | 0.117 | -0.113 | 0.024 | -0.007 | -0.061 | -0.061 | 0.033 |
宁夏 | -0.025 | 0.054 | 0.013 | 0.042 | -0.006 | -0.037 | -0.010 | 0.076 |
新疆 | 0.029 | 0.311 | -0.031 | -0.381 | 0.124 | 0.217 | -0.178 | -0.131 |
东北 | 1.801 | 2.650 | -3.130 | -1.266 | -0.912 | -1.234 | -1.827 | -1.144 |
辽宁 | 1.498 | 1.981 | -3.503 | -0.295 | -0.132 | -0.586 | -1.048 | -0.418 |
吉林 | -0.265 | 0.271 | 0.081 | -0.531 | 0.108 | -0.199 | -0.199 | 0.029 |
黑龙江 | 0.568 | 0.398 | 0.292 | -0.441 | -0.888 | -0.449 | -0.580 | -0.756 |
平均变动 | 0.101 | 0.253 | 0.098 | 0.025 | 0.062 | 0.069 | 0.042 | 0.032 |
注:平均变动指各阶段省区经济份额变动的绝对值的年平均值。 |
Fig.1 Regional economic shift of China and its driving industries before economic reforms and opening-up图1 改革开放以前中国省区经济转移及其驱动产业 |
Fig.2 Regional economic shift of China and its driving industries after economic reforms and opening-up图2 改革开放以后中国省区经济转移及其驱动产业 |
Fig.3 Industry mix, competitive and allocation effects of secondary industry for provinces of China in different periods图3 分阶段中国省区第二产业的结构、区域和分配偏离分量 |
Fig. 4 Industry mix, competitive and allocation effects of tertiary industry for provinces of China in different periods图4 改革开放以来分阶段中国省区第三产业的结构、区域和分配偏离分量 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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