Taking the Xitiaoxi Basin in the upstream of Taihu Lake Watershed as a case, this study applied, rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS to quantitatively predict the influence of future land use changes on the storm-runoff generation under designing rainfall events associated with different recurrence intervals.The results indicate that in the course of urbanization, the generated future land use scenarios result in obvious increases in peak discharge and total runoff, and the magnitude of their impacts relates to the expansion rate of built-up area.And the sensitivity of hydrologic response to land use change tends to increase as the recurrence interval of the rainfall events decreases.Furthermore, remarkable spatial variations of the land use changes and its impacts can be observed at the subbasin level, and the most sensitive subbasin is identified to be located near the center of the urban area.
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