论文

Spatial-temporal Distribution of Crop-livestock Product Virtual Water Per Cultivated Land in China Based on Fractal Theory

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  • KRI, Centre for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development of Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, Liaoning 116029

Received date: 2008-08-16

  Revised date: 2008-11-19

  Online published: 2009-05-20

Abstract

Virtual water has become the central issue of water sciences, and has been regarded as a main countermeasure to solve risks of food security and water security. On the base of calculating the total quantity of main crop-livestock product virtual water, this paper calculated the Gini coefficient of crop-livestock product virtual water verse cultivated land and the result showed that the Gini coefficient of crop-livestock product virtual water verse cultivated land were less than 0.4 (warning limit) from 1996 to 2006, which indicated that the spatial-temporal differences of crop-livestock product virtual water verse cultivated land was slowly decreasing. This paper analyzed changes of the virtual water per cultivated land in the provinces of China from 1996 to 2006.Then, according to the theory of primate city distribution and rank and size law which have been frequently used in urban geography since the 1920s, based on the data of thirty provinces of China this paper used the rank and size curves to explain virtual water per cultivated land size distribution, which can probed into the internal difference mechanic of fractal feature. The result showed that virtual water per cultivated land size distribution didn’t follow primate city distribution, and the coefficient of determination (R2) about the model of the bi-fractals were more than 0.975. The rank and size double logarithm regression of the virtual water per cultivated land accords with the Pareto distribution well, and the size and its rank turn out to follow the rank-size distribution. Meanwhile, the fractal dimension D was more than 1 and slowly decreased by year, which showed the spatial differences of the virtual water per cultivated land in provinces of China reduced and the equilibrium tended to strengthen. The rank and size distribution took on bi-fractals structure. The conclusion showed that large-scale provinces developed more slowly than medium-or small-scale provinces, and leading function of these large-scale provinces was limited. Furthermore, according to the rank and size double logarithm regression curve shapes of bi-fractals, we claimed that Chinese virtual water per cultivated land could be divided into three categories. Large-size of the virtual water per cultivated land was 14000~26000m3/ha, the medium-size was 7000~14000m3/ha, and the small-size was less than 7000 m3/ha. At last, this paper also discusses the impacts of the facts, aiming at offering a new method for researches of the virtual water per cultivated land size and assisting the formulation of agricultural policies at national and regional levels.

Cite this article

Sun Cai-Zhi, Zhang Lei . Spatial-temporal Distribution of Crop-livestock Product Virtual Water Per Cultivated Land in China Based on Fractal Theory[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2009 , 29(3) : 402 -408 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2009.03.402

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