Combining Climate modeling results with geological climate records of mid-Holocene, we analyze the analog of summer precipitation change patterns between mid-Holocene and the late 21st century climate change scenarios over East Asia. The results show that the pattern of East Asian summer precipitation change in mid-Holocene is similar to that in the late 21st century to a certain degree. We find two key areas: one in the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, the other in the southwest of Xinjiang, with increased precipitation by more than 1.5mm/day and decreased precipitation up to 0.1mm/day under both warming conditions, respectively. Meanwhile, the simulated mid-Holocene precipitation is qualitatively consistent with relevant geological climate records. Therefore the pattern of East Asian summer precipitation change in mid-Holocene can be taken as a historical analog pattern for the future in the study area in some degree.
ZHANG Ran, LIU Xiao-dong
. An Analogy Analysis of Summer Precipitation Change Patterns Between Mid-Holocene and Future Climatic Warming Scenarios over East Asia[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2009
, 29(5)
: 679
-683
.
DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2009.05.679
[1] IPCC.Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007:1-996.
[2] 刘晓东,安芷生,方建刚,等.全球气候变暖条件下黄河流域降水的可能变化[J].地理科学,2002, 22(5):513~519.
[3] 江志红,张 霞,王 冀.IPCC-AR4模式对中国21世纪气候变化的情景预估[J].地理研究,2008, 27(4):787~799.
[4] Von Deimling TS,Held H,Ganopolski A,et al.Are paleo-proxy data helpful for constraining future climate change?[J].PAGES News,2008,16:20-21.
[5] Braconnot P,Otto-Bliesner B,Harrison S,et al.Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum - Part 1: experiments and large-scale features[J].Clim.Past, 2007, 3:261-277.
[6] 李明霞,汪永进,邱庆伦.中全新世7~6 ka东亚季风气候的高分辨率石笋记录[J]. 地理科学, 2007, 27(4):519~524.
[7] Liu X Q, Shen J, Wang S M, et al. Southwest monsoon changes indicated by oxygen isotope of ostracode shells from sediments in Qinghai Lake since the Late glacial[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2007, 52:539-544.
[8] 杨永兴, 王世岩. 8.0 ka B.P.以来三江平原北部沼泽发育和古环境演变研究[J].地理科学,2003,23(1):32~38.
[9] Saijo K,Tanaka S.Paleosols of middle Holocene age in the Thakkhola basin, central Nepal, and their paleoclimatic significance[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2002,21:323-329.
[10] Tang L,Shen C,Liu K,et al.New high-resolution pollen records from two lakes in Xizang (Tibet)[J].Acta Botanica Sinica,1999,41:896-902.
[11] Kashiwaya K,Masuzawa T,Morinaga H,et al.Changes in hydrological conditions in the central Qing-Zang (Tibetan) Plateau inferred from lake bottom sediments[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,1995, 135:31-39.
[12] Feng Q,Su Z,Jin H.Desert evolution and climatic changes in the Tarim River basin since 12 ka B.P.[J].Science in China (Series D),1999,42(Supp):101-112.
[13] Guiot J,Wu H B,Jiang W Y,et al.East Asian Monsoon and paleoclimatic data analysis: a vegetation point of view[J].Clim,Past,2008,4:137-145.
[14] Jiang Q F,Shen J,Liu X Q,et al.A high resolution climatic change since Holocene inferred from multi-proxy of lake sediment in westerly area of China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2007,52:1970-1979.
[15] Phillips T J,Gleckler P J.Evaluation of continental Precipitation in 20th-Century Climate Simulations: The Utility of Multi-model Statistics[J].Water Resource Research,2006, 42:WO3202, doi:10.1029/2005WR004313.
