论文

Characteristics and Tendencies of Annual Runoff Variations in the Heihe River Basin During the Past 60 years

Expand
  • Department of Resources, Environment and Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University; Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100871

Received date: 2007-04-08

  Revised date: 2007-09-11

  Online published: 2008-01-20

Abstract

This paper analyzes the characteristics, tendencies, and causes of annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge (1944-2005) and the Zhengyi Gorge (1954-2005), which are the boundaries of the upper reaches, the middle reaches, and the lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin. Methods used in the study include wavelet analysis, wavelet neural network model, and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that: (1) annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge had principal periods of 7 years and 25 years, and the variation ratio was 1.04 m3/(s·10a); (2) annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge had principal periods of 6 years and 27 years, and the variation ratio was 2.65m3/(s·10a); (3) during 2006-2015, annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have ascending tendencies, and the increasing ratio is 2.04 m3/(s·10a); (4) the annual runoff increase of the Yinluo Gorge had causal relationship with the increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches, and the annual runoff decrease of the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused by the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific foundation for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River Basin.

Cite this article

WANG Jun, MENG Ji-Jun . Characteristics and Tendencies of Annual Runoff Variations in the Heihe River Basin During the Past 60 years[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2008 , 28(1) : 83 -88 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2008.01.83

References

[1] 王根绪,程国栋.近50 a来黑河流域水文及生态环境的变化[J].中国沙漠,1998,18(3):233~238.
[2] 王根绪,王 建,仵彦卿.近10年来黑河流域生态环境变化特征分析[J].地理科学,2002, 22(5):527~534.
[3] 李 森,李 凡,孙 武,等.黑河下游额济纳绿洲现代荒漠化过程及其驱动机制[J].地理科学,2004, 24(1):61~67.
[4] 蓝永超,康尔泗,金会军,等.黑河出山径流量年际变化特征和趋势研究[J].冰川冻土,1999,21(1): 49~53.
[5] 陈仁升,康尔泗,张济世.基于小波变换和GRNN神经网络的黑河出山径流模型[J].中国沙漠, 2001, 21(增刊):12~16.
[6] 李栋梁,刘洪兰.黑河流量对祁连山气候年代际变化的响应[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(4):385~391.
[7] 蓝永超,丁永建,刘进琪,等.全球气候变暖情景下黑河山区流域水资源的变化[J].中国沙漠,2005, 25(6):863~868.
[8] 丁宏伟,曹炳媛,高玉卓,等.黑河过正义峡河川径流量减少的原因及对策分析[J].中国沙漠,2001, 21(1):62~66.
[9] 肖生春,肖洪浪.近百年来人类活动对黑河流域水环境的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2004,18(3): 57~62.
[10] 蓝永超,康尔泗,张济世,等.黑河流域水资源合理开发利用研究[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2002, 8(5):108~114.
[11] 胡兴林.黑河流域径流演化规律及区域性水资源优化配置分析[J].水文,2003,23(1):32~36.
[12] 张光辉,刘少玉,张翠云,等.黑河流域水循环演化与可持续利用对策[J].地理与地理信息科学, 2004,20(1):63~66.
[13] 张 凯,韩永翔,张 勃,等.黑河中游水资源开发利用的阶段潜力研究[J].地理科学,2006,26(3): 179~185.
[14] 卢爱刚,庞德谦,何元庆,等.全球升温对中国区域温度纬向梯度的影响[J].地理科学,2006,26(3):345~350.
[15] 门宝辉,刘昌明,夏 军,等.南水北调西线一期工程调水区径流量与影响因子关系分析——以达曲为例[J].地理科学,2006,26(6):674~681.
[16] 徐海量,叶 茂,宋郁东.塔里木河源流区气候变化和年径流量关系初探[J].地理科学,2007,27(2):219~224.
[17] 刘贤赵,李嘉竹,宿 庆,等.基于集中度与集中期的径流年内分配研究[J].地理科学,2007,27(6):791~795.
[18] 袁淑杰,缪启龙,谷晓平,等.中国云贵高原喀斯特地区春旱特征分析[J].地理科学,2007,27(6):796~800.
[19] 李红军,江志红,魏文寿.近40年来塔里木河流域旱涝的气候变化[J].地理科学,2007,27(6):801~807.
[20] 陈文雄.黑河流域水文特征[J].水文,2002,22(6):57~60.
[21] 任建华,李万寿,张 婕.黑河干流中游地区耗水量变化的历史分析[J].人民黄河,2002,24(1):27~29.
[22] Margriet Nakken. Wavelet analysis of runfall - runoff variability isolating climatic from anthropogenic pattern [J].Environmental modeling and software,1999, 14: 283-295.
[23] 孙 力,安 刚,丁 立.中国东北地区夏季旱涝的分析研究[J].地理科学,2002,22(3):311~316.
[24] 欧素英,陈子燊.小波变换在相对海平面变化研究中的应用[J].地理科学,2004,24(3):358~364.
[25] 陆云阁,李双成,蔡运龙.近40年气候变化及其空间分异的多尺度研究——以内蒙古自治区为例[J]. 地理科学,2004,24(4):432~438.
[26] 刘会玉,林振山,张明阳.建国以来中国洪涝灾害成灾面积变化的小波分析[J].地理科学, 2005, 25(1): 43~48.
[27] 胡昌华,张军波,夏 军,等(编著).基于MATLAB的系统分析与设计——小波分析[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,1999:1~68.
[28] 董长虹.Matlab小波分析工具箱原理与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2004:19~29.
[29] Shuanghua Cao,Jiacong Cao.Forecast of solar irradiance using recurrent neural networks combined with wavelet anaysis[J]. Applied Thermal Engineering,2005,25:161-172.
[30] Uros Lotric.Andrej Dobunikar.Predicting time series using neural networks with wavelet-based de-noising layers[J].Neural computing & Application, 2005,14:11-17.
[31] 蒋晓辉,刘昌明.基于小波分析的径向基神经网络年径流预测[J].应用科学学报,2004,22(3):411~414.
[32] 黄秋昊,蔡运龙.基于RBFN模型的贵州省石漠化危险度评价[J].地理学报,2005,60(5):771~778.
[33] 李 林,王振宇,汪青春.黑河上游地区气候变化对径流量的影响研究[J].地理科学,2006,26(1): 40~46.
[34] 丁宏伟,崔振卿.黑河干流中游地区泉水资源衰减原因及趋势分析[J].甘肃地质学报,2001,10(1): 69~74.
Outlines

/