China is a country with large flood-prone area, thus the research on flood is of great significance. The theory of complexity has provided completely new method for the research on the complex system of flood disaster. To detect the tendency in the future, we apply the method of information entropy to analyze the flood-affected area variation by using the flood disaster data of the whole country and 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The results are as follows. The average flood-affected area and its complexity increased very fast in the 1980s and 1990s of the 20th century, so that flood disaster was more changeable and its uncertainty increased. However, entering the 21st century, both of them relieved or decreased slightly. As for the provinces, the paper discovers the regional character of future’s trend of flood-affected area. The whole country may be classified into two flood intensified regions and two flood alleviated regions. The paper classifies the provinces of the whole country into four ranks according to the flood area tendency, and a map of future’s tendency of flood disaster area is given at the end.
YIN Yi-Xing, XU You-Peng, CHEN Ying
. Analysis of Variation of Flood-affected Area in China Based on Complexity Measurement[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2008
, 28(2)
: 241
-246
.
DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2008.02.241
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