The Evolution of The Level of Economic Scale of Urban System Based on Fractal Analysis
Received date: 2011-05-16
Request revised date: 2011-08-19
Online published: 2012-02-20
Copyright
According to the fractal theory of economic scale in regional urban system, we select four-year economic data of the administrative units that above the county level in the Changjiang River Delta between 1995 and 2009, and calculate the fractal dimensions of the economic scales. Under the evolving characteristics of the fractal dimensions of the Changjiang River Delta, we explore the evolving law of economic scale levels in the urban system of the Changjiang River Delta. The results show: 1) Although the differences of levels of economic and social development between cities in the Changjiang River Delta are quite big currently and the central city has more monopoly, the trend of homogenization is obvious. Overall, the fractal dimensions of the economic gross data and economic density data have shown a rising trend among all the economic sectors. Furthermore, the evolution pattern of fractal dimensions for both data demonstrated a strong consistency. The trends of variations can be summarized into three types: decreased at first and then increased, fluctuating increased and sustainable increased. The type of decreasing at first and then increasing is evidently demonstrated in the evolution of the fractal dimensions of the economic gross data, while the fluctuating increasing type is evidently demonstrated in the evolution of the fractal dimensions of economic density data. The sustainable increasing type is evidently demonstrated in the evolution of the fractal dimensions of the foreign trade data. Under the cooperation of the various economic departments, the trend of homogenization for spatial pattern of the regional GDP is obviously revealed. 2) The levels of economic scale have a significant gradient feature in space, and the uniformity of the level of economic scale is reducing with increasing distance from the core cities of the region. The cities in the core region, which have higher level of economic scale, constitute the first non-scaling interval. The fractal dimensions of the first non-scaling interval are higher than the corresponding dimensions of all the cities in the same region. This result indicates that, along with the enhancement of the economic develop zone, the pattern of regional control evolves gradually from core cities leading to economic development zone leading. 3) The hierarchy of spatial layout of the regional industrials is gradually clear. The proportions of the foreign trade and the tertiary industry of central cities are improving constantly, and the ability of the regional control of central cities are improving, while the secondary industry has been put in leading position in medium and small cities. The central, medium and small cities all contribute to the formation of an organic whole, which result in improving of overall competitiveness of regional economy.
Key words: fractal; urban system; economic scale; the Changjiang River Delta; evolution
ZHOU Bin-xue , DAI Te-qi , LIANG Jin-she , ZHANG Jin-zong . The Evolution of The Level of Economic Scale of Urban System Based on Fractal Analysis[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2012 , 32(2) : 156 -162 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.02.156
Table 1 The evolution of fractal dimension of the total amount of the economic and social indicators in Changjiang River Delta表1 长三角经济社会指标总量分形维数演变 |
年份 | 1995年 | 2000年 | 2005年 | 2009年 |
---|---|---|---|---|
总人口 | 2.2366 | 2.0982 | 1.9088 | 1.8685 |
GDP | 1.1052 | 1.0777 | 0.9655 | 1.1040 |
第一产业 | 2.3207 | 2.2614 | 2.1584 | 2.4079 |
第二产业 | 1.0183 | 1.0054 | 0.9238 | 1.0399 |
第三产业 | 0.9131 | 0.9348 | 0.8893 | 0.9557 |
消费品零售总额 | 1.0403 | - | 0.9773 | 1.0424 |
财政收入 | 0.9129 | 0.8272 | 0.7577 | 0.8902 |
财政支出 | 1.1018 | 1.0166 | 0.9795 | 1.1370 |
社会固定资产投资 | 0.9478 | 0.8265 | 0.8812 | 1.0681 |
实际利用外资 | 0.4891 | 0.5659 | 0.6954 | 0.7482 |
进口总额 | - | - | 0.4113 | 0.4009 |
出口总额 | - | - | 0.4955 | 0.6194 |
注:数据来源:《上海市统计年鉴》,《浙江省统计年鉴》,《江苏省统计年鉴》。 |
Table 2 The evolution of fractal dimension of the regional average economic and social indicators in Changjiang River Delta表2 长三角地均经济社会指标分形维数演变 |
年份 | 1995年 | 2000年 | 2005年 | 2009年 |
---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 0.8351 | 0.8925 | 0.8218 | 0.9444 |
第一产业 | 1.5972 | 2.6525 | 2.4734 | 3.0609 |
第二产业 | 0.6769 | 0.6454 | 0.5996 | 0.8046 |
第三产业 | 0.7143 | 0.7899 | 0.7023 | 0.8727 |
消费品零售总额 | 0.6714 | - | 0.7753 | 0.9163 |
财政收入 | 0.7595 | 0.7060 | 0.5745 | 0.8503 |
财政支出 | 0.9609 | 1.0240 | 0.8691 | 1.0778 |
社会固定资产投资 | 0.5632 | 0.7628 | 0.6474 | 1.0205 |
实际利用外资 | 0.3900 | 0.4679 | 0.4030 | 0.5139 |
进口总额 | - | - | 0.3239 | 0.3638 |
出口总额 | - | - | 0.3189 | 0.4358 |
注:数据来源:《上海市统计年鉴》,《浙江省统计年鉴》,《江苏省统计年鉴》。 |
Fig.1 The Zipf dimension of GDP in Changjiang River Delta from the first fractal scaleless band in 2009图1 长三角GDP(2009)第一无标度区Zipf维数(q) |
Table 3 The evolution of fractal dimension of the total amount of the economic and social indicators in Changjiang River Delta (the first fractal scaleless band)表3 长三角经济社会指标总量分形维数演变(第一无标度区) |
年份 | 1995年 | 2000年 | 2005年 | 2009年 | 无标度区长度 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 1.2102 | 1.1988 | 1.0918 | 1.1216 | 94/134 |
第一产业 | 2.5920 | 2.4814 | 2.4950 | 2.6603 | 71/134 |
第二产业 | 1.1197 | 1.1232 | 1.0483 | 1.1353 | 90/134 |
第三产业 | 1.0108 | 1.0367 | 0.9995 | 1.0326 | 100/134 |
消费品零售总额 | 1.1174 | —— | 1.0770 | 1.0707 | 102/134 |
财政收入 | 0.9543 | 0.8918 | 0.8254 | 0.9029 | 110/134 |
财政支出 | 1.1269 | 1.0367 | 1.0005 | 1.0826 | 120/134 |
社会固定资产投资 | 0.9287 | 0.9031 | 0.9543 | 1.0993 | 110/134 |
实际利用外资 | 0.6316 | 0.6610 | 0.8781 | 0.9013 | 65/134 |
进口总额 | —— | —— | 0.5429 | 0.5348 | 80/134 |
出口总额 | —— | —— | 0.6775 | 0.7837 | 60/134 |
注: 数据来源:《上海市统计年鉴》,《浙江省统计年鉴》,《江苏省统计年鉴》。 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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