According to the monitoring data of annual runoff in the mainstream of Tarim River from 1957 to 2008,the time series variation tendency of annual runoff in the mainstream is analyzed by using linear regression method,and then the connectivity between annual runoff and human social economic activities driving factors is made a thorough inquiry by means of correlation analysis and principal component.The study results are concluded as follows: In recent more than 50 years,the decreasing tendency of annual runoff in the mainstream of Tarim River is prominent,having the uniformity with the inflow volume change tendency of the mainstream.The human activities have been affecting obviously annual runoff since about 1975.At the same time the correlation analysis on annual runoff and human economic activities driving factors indicates that the factors,such as effective irrigated area,agricultural population,cultivated land area and the proportion of primary industry,have been farthest affecting annual runoff.So the agricultural economic activities have been the most important factors to influence the annual runoff change,among them the agricultural bringing in water and irrigation is the most direct factor to interfere with the water resources.The degree of human activities impacting on annual runoff change displays gradually enhanced tendency from the top to bottom along the river course of the mainstream of Tarim River.
CHEN Zhong-sheng, CHEN Ya-ning, CAO Zhi-chao, SUN Cong-jian, FAN Yu-ting
. The Change of Annual Runoff and Its Connectivity with Human Driving Factors in the Mainstream of Tarim River[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2011
, 31(12)
: 1506
-1511
.
DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.012.1506
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