Based on analysis of the basic feedback structure of water resources-ecological environment-social economy system in Karst Region of Southwest China, taking Bijie region, Guizhou Province as the research area, this paper set up a System Dynamic(SD) model of Bijie region through dynamic simulation and synthetical adjustment. Five available schemes were chosen from various experimental schemes. They are traditional development scheme(Scheme 1), water-saving development scheme (Scheme 2), broaden sources of water resources and environmental protection scheme (Scheme 3),fast economic development-oriented scheme (Scheme 4) and coordinated development-oriented scheme (Scheme 5). Comprehensive evaluation indicates that Scheme 5 is the optimal one, which takes social economic development, ecological environment protection, water-saving and water resources development into account, and brings obvious social economic ecological and water-saving benefits. Therefore, this paper analyzed the corresponding SD model of Scheme 5 and the development trend of Bijie region in the next 12 years, and came to the conclusions that the application of Scheme 5 can effectively promote the coordinated development of water resources, ecological environment and social economy in Bijie region, and improve the carrying capacity of water resources in this area.
HE Ren-wei, LIU Shao-quan, LIU Yun-wei
. Application of System Dynamics in Analyzing the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Karst Region of Southwest China —A Case Study in Bijie Region, Guizhou Province[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2011
, 31(11)
: 1376
-1382
.
DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1376
[1] 段春青,刘昌明,陈晓楠,等.区域水资源承载力概念及研究方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2010,65(1):82~90.
[2] 施雅风,曲耀光.乌鲁术齐河流域水资源承载力及其合理利用[M].北京:科学出版社,l992.
[3] 许有鹏.干旱区水资源承载能力综合评价研究:以新疆和田河流域为例[J].自然资源学报,1993,8(3):229~237.
[4] 翁文斌,蔡喜明,王 浩,等.宏观经济水资源规划多目标分析方法研究及应用[J].水利学报,1995,26(1):1~11.
[5] 阮本青,沈 晋.区域水资源适度承载能力计算模型研究[J].水土保持学报,1998,4(3):57~61.
[6] 薛小杰,惠泱河,黄 强.城市水资源承载力及其实证研究[J].西北农业大学学报,2000,28(6):135~139.
[7] 朱一中,夏 军,王纲胜.西北地区水资源承载力多目标情景分析与评价[J].中山大学学报,2004,43(2): 64~67.
[8] 李同升,徐冬平.基于SD模型下的流域水资源-社会经济系统时空协同分析——以渭河流域关中段为例[J].地理科学,2006,26(5):551~556.
[9] Li-Hua Feng,Xing-Cai Zhang,Gao-Yuan Luo.Application of system dynamics in analyzing the carrying capacity of water resources in Yiwu City, China[J]. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation,2008,(79):269-278.
[10] 罗为群,蒋忠诚,曹建华.西南岩溶石漠化区水资源承载力研究[J].中国水土保持,2009,(1):27~30.
[11] 吴应科,毕于远,郭纯青.西南岩溶区岩溶基本特征与资源、环境、社会、经济综述[J].中国岩溶,1998,17(2):141~150.
[12] Yuan Daoxian.Rocky desertification in the Subtropical Karst of South China[J].Z.Geomorph.N.F.,1997,(108):81-90.
[13] 王腊春,史运良.西南喀斯特山区三水转化与水资源过程及合理利用[J].地理科学,2006,26(2):173~178.
[14] 袁道先.西南岩溶区地下水环境告急.科学时报,2009-02-19.
[15] 袁淑杰,缪启龙,谷晓平,等.中国云贵高原喀斯特地区春旱特征分析[J].地理科学,2007,27(6):796~800.
