Regional Hydrological Drought Frequency Based on Copulas

  • 1. School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui 230009, China;
    2. Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China;
    3. College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forest University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China

Received date: 2011-04-19

  Revised date: 2011-06-03

  Online published: 1997-11-20


Considering the runoff as a hydrological drought indicator,this paper describes the identification of hydrological drought characteristic variables via the anomaly and cumulative approaches.Building upon the frequency distribution of each drought characteristic variable from the curve fitting method and taking advantage of the Archimedean Copulas,the joint distribution of drought duration and severity were constructed and accordingly the drought return periods were estimated.The proposed method for drought frequency estimation was applied to Shaoyang,Hunan Province of China.The obtained results show that drought return periods estimated by the Gumbel-Hougaard and Frank Copulas correspond with the actual regional drought circumstances, and drought characteristic variables obtained based on anomaly approach is better comparatively;curve fitting method can avoid the irrationality from estimation of parameters based on data directly,so the results of Copula-based frequency analysis with curve fitting method are more objective and reliable.

Cite this article

ZHOU Yu-liang, YUAN Xiao-chen, JIN Ju-liang, LI Jian-qiang, SONG Song-bai . Regional Hydrological Drought Frequency Based on Copulas[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2011 , 31(11) : 1383 -1388 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1383


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