Under the background of global warming,climate change including mean temperature,solar radia-tion and precipitation of spring Maize growth period,were studied in Northeast China using mathematical sta-tistics method based on daily data from 101 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2007.The light-temperature potential productivity and the climate potential productivity of spring maize were also analyzed using the geo-graphical information system(GIS) techniques in different areas and different times.It was showed that the mean temperature of spring Maize growth period went up in Northeast China,and the increase amplitude was larger than the national average.While the solar radiation was declining,and the precipitation showed a de-scending trend too.The light-temperature potential productivity of spring maize increased on the condition of elevated temperature.While the climate potential productivity of spring maize varied greatly because of the variation of precipitation in different areas.Compared to 1970s,in 2000s the climate potential productivity re-duced in the south but rose in the north.Some measures were proposed to make better use of the increase of potential productivity looking forward to a high spring maize yield.
CHEN Chang-qing, LEI Cheng-xia, WANG Chun-chun, ZHANG Wei-jian
. Changes of Spring Maize Potential Productivity under the Background of Global Warming in Northeast China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2011
, 31(10)
: 1272
-1279
.
DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.010.1272
[1] 秦大河.中国气候与环境演变(上)[J].资源环境与发展,2007,(3):1~3.
[2] IPCC.Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge university press,2007.
[3] Lele U.Food security for a Billion Poor[J].Science,2010,327(5973):1554.
[4] 金之庆,葛道阔,郑喜莲,等.评价全球气候变化对我国玉米生产的可能影响[J].作物学报,1996,22(5):514~523.
[5] Bootsma A,Anderson D,Gameda S.Potential Impacts of Climate change on Agro-climatic Indices in Southern Regions ofOntario and Quebec[C].Technical Bulletin ECORC Contribu-tion No.03-284.Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre.Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada,Ottawa,Ontario,2004.
[6] De Jong R,Li KY,Bootsma A,et al.Crop Yield Variability UnderClimate Change and Adaptative Crop Management Scenarios[C].Final Report for Climate Change Action Fund ProjectA080.Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre(ECORC).Agriculture and Agri-Food,Canada,2001.
[7] 王素艳,郭海燕,邓彪,等.气候变化对四川盆地作物生产潜力的影响评估[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(2):49~53.
[8] 程叶青,张平宇.中国粮食生产的区域格局变化及东北商品粮基地的响应[J].地理科学,2005,25(5):513~520.
[9] 郭淑敏,马帅,陈印军.中国东北三省粮食生产的态势、优势、问题与对策[J].中国农学通报,2006,12(22):488~493.
[10] 张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,等.未来气候变化情景下我国主要粮食作物产量变化模拟[J].干旱地区农业研究,2007,25(5):208~213.
[11] 张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,等.气候变化情景下东北地区玉米产量变化模拟[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(6):1448~1452.
[12] 尚宗波.全球气候变化对沈阳地区春玉米生长的可能影响[J].植物学报,2000,42(3):300~305.
[13] 卓玛,拉巴卓玛.气候变化对西藏主要农区作物气候生产潜力的影响[J].西藏科技,2007,(12):57~59.
[14] 陈峪,黄朝迎.气候变化对东北地区作物生产潜力影响的研究[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(3):314~320.
[15] 赵艳霞,王馥棠,刘文泉.黄土高原的气候生态环境、气候变化与农业气候生产潜力[J].干旱地区农业研究,2003,21(4):142~146.
[16] 郭建平,高素华,潘亚茹.东北地区农业气候生产潜力及其开发利用对策[J].气象,1995,21(2):3~9.
[17] 王春春,陈长青,黄山,等.东北气候和土壤资源演变特征研究[J].南京农业大学学报,2010,33(2):19~24.
[18] 左大康,王懿贤,陈建绥.中国地区太阳总辐射的空间分布特征[J].气象学报,1963,33(1):78~96.
[19] 翁笃鸣.试论总辐射的气候学计算方法[J].气象学报,1964,34(3):304~315.
[20] 高国栋.气候学教程[M].北京:气象出版社,1996,50~85.19
[21] 马树庆.吉林省农业气候研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1996,27~59.
[22] 丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等.气候变化国家评估报告(I):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(1):3~8.
[23] 任国玉,郭军,徐铭志.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942~956.
[24] 刁操铨.作物栽培学各论(南方本)[M].北京,中国农业出版社,1994,143~145.
[25] 居煇,熊伟,许吟隆,等.气候变化对中国东北地区生态与环境的影响[J].中国农学通报,2007,23(4):345~349.
[26] Rosenzweig C,Strzepek K M,Major D C,et al.Water resourcesfor agriculture in a changing climate:international case studies[J].Global Environmental Change,2004,14:345-360.
[27] 王素艳,郭海燕,邓彪,等.气候变化对四川盆地作物生产潜力的影响评估[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(2):49~53.
[28] 肖俊夫,刘战东,陈玉民.中国玉米需水量与需水规律研究[J].玉米科学,2008,16(4):21~25.
[29] 白向历,孙世贤,杨国航,等.不同生育时期水分胁迫对玉米产量及生长发育的影响[J].玉米科学,2009,17(2):60~63.
[30] 刘引鸽.关中平原土地利用及农业气候生产潜力分析[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(6):21~49.
[31] 杨重一.黑龙江省作物气候生产潜力分析及气候变化响应[D].吉林:东北农业大学,2007.
[32] 赵艳霞,王馥棠,刘文泉.黄土高原的气候生态环境、气候变化与农业气候生产潜力[J].干旱地区农业研究,2003,21(4):142~146.
