In this paper, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the tendency of runoff changes for upper stream of Naoli River in the Sanjiang Plain in 1956-2002, the abrupt change of runoff occurred in 1966 and the watershed runoff was divided the into two stages, that is, 1956-1966 and 1967-2002. The coefficient of variation was applied to testing the effect of the climatic element on the runoff reduction. The conclusions are arrived that the climatic factor is the main reason causing the reduction of runoff in the first stage while the human activities made the runoff decrease abruptly in the second stage. The IHACRES model was used to simulate the runoff in 1967-2002 and calculate the runoff reduced by human events. The results show that 11 years of the gauged annual runoff reduced more than 50% compared with the reference annual runoff in the second stage, and of which 10 years reduced from 30% to 50% and 11 years reduced from 10% to 30%, respectively.
LIU Gui-Hua, LUAN Zhao-Qing, YAN Bai-xing, GAO Chang-Jun
. Tendency and Driving Forces of Runoff Changes for Upper Stream of Naoli River in the Sanjiang Plain[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2011
, 31(8)
: 952
-957
.
DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.08.952
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