Tendency and Driving Forces of Runoff Changes for Upper Stream of Naoli River in the Sanjiang Plain

  • 1. Norhteast Institute of Geography and Agroecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Changchun,Jilin 130012,China;
    2. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

Received date: 2010-10-10

  Revised date: 2010-12-08

  Online published: 1997-08-20


In this paper, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the tendency of runoff changes for upper stream of Naoli River in the Sanjiang Plain in 1956-2002, the abrupt change of runoff occurred in 1966 and the watershed runoff was divided the into two stages, that is, 1956-1966 and 1967-2002. The coefficient of variation was applied to testing the effect of the climatic element on the runoff reduction. The conclusions are arrived that the climatic factor is the main reason causing the reduction of runoff in the first stage while the human activities made the runoff decrease abruptly in the second stage. The IHACRES model was used to simulate the runoff in 1967-2002 and calculate the runoff reduced by human events. The results show that 11 years of the gauged annual runoff reduced more than 50% compared with the reference annual runoff in the second stage, and of which 10 years reduced from 30% to 50% and 11 years reduced from 10% to 30%, respectively.

Cite this article

LIU Gui-Hua, LUAN Zhao-Qing, YAN Bai-xing, GAO Chang-Jun . Tendency and Driving Forces of Runoff Changes for Upper Stream of Naoli River in the Sanjiang Plain[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2011 , 31(8) : 952 -957 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.08.952


[1] Milzow C,Burg V,Kinzelbach W.Estimating future ecoregion distributions within the Okavango Delta Wetlands based on hydrological simulations and future climate and development scenarios[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,381:89-100.
[2] Dawson Terry P,Berry Pam M,Kampa E.Climate change impacts on freshwater wetland habitats[J].Journal for Nature Conservation,2003,11:25-30.
[3] Douglas Burns,Tomas Vitvar,Jeffrey McDonnell,et al.Effects of suburban development on runoff generation in the Croton River basin,New York,USA[J].Journal of Hydrology,2005,31:266-281.
[4] Jose Bazante,Gary Jacobi,Helena M,et al.Hydrologic measurements and implications for tree island formation within Everglades National Park[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006,329:606-619.
[5] 黄 妮,刘殿伟,王宗明,等.基于GIS的三江平原退耕还湿空间决策分析[J].地理科学,2009,29(6):874~879.
[6] Cerian Gibbes,Jane Southworth,Eric Keys.Wetland conservation:Change and fragmentation in Trinidad’s protected areas[J].Geoforum,2009,40:91-104.
[7] Charlotte MacAlister,Manithaphone Mahaxay.Mapping wetlands in the Lower Mekong Basin for wetland resource and conservation management using Landsat ETM images and field survey data[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2009,90:2130-2137.
[8] 徐海量,叶 茂,宋郁东.塔里木河源流区气候变化和年径流量关系初探[J].地理科学,2007,27(2):219~224.
[9] 栾兆擎,胡金明,邓 伟,等.人类活动对挠力河流域径流情势的影响[J].资源科学,2007,29(2):46~51.
[10] 李 林,王振宇,汪青春.黑河上游地区气候变化对径流量的影响研究[J].地理科学,2006,26(1):40~46.
[11] 唐 蕴,王 浩,严登华,等.嫩江流域近45年来径流演变规律研究[J].地理科学,2009,29(6):864~868.
[12] 康淑媛,张 勃,柳景峰,等.基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量时空分布规律分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(3): 501~508.
[13] 李子君,李秀彬.近45年来降水变化和人类活动对潮河流域年径流量的影响[J].地理科学,2008,28(6):809~813.
[14] 王金花,康玲玲,赵广福.基于Mann-Kendall法的水沙系列突变点研究[J].人民黄河,2010,32(1):43~45.
[15] 闫敏华,邓 伟,陈泮勤.三江平原气候突变分析[J].地理科学,2003,23(6):661~667.
[16] 柴晓玲,郭生练,彭定志,等.IHACRES模型在无资料地区径流模拟中的应用研究[J].水文,2006,26(2):30~33.
[17] Jakeman A J,Glittlewood L,Whitehead P G.Computation of the instantaneous unit hydrograph and identifiable component flows with application to two small upland catchments[J].Journal of Hydrology,1990,117:275-300.
[18] Dye P J,Croke B F W.Evaluation of streamflow predictions by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model in two South African catchments[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2003,18:705-712.
[19] 姚允龙.三江平原挠力河流域湿地垦殖与气候变化的水文效应研究.中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所博士学位论文,2009.
[20] Koster R D,Suarez M J.A Simple Framework for Examining the Interannual Variability of Land Surface Moisture Fluxes[J].Journal of Climate,1999,12(7):1911-1917.
[21] Milly P C D,Dunne K A.Macro-scale water fluxes-2. Water and energy supply control of their interannual variability[J].Water Resources Research,2001,38(10):24.
[22] Popov E G.Gidrologicheskie prognozy [M].Leningrad:Gidrometeoizdat,1979.
[23] 孙 宁,李秀彬,李子君,等.潮河上游土地利用/覆被变化对年径流影响模拟[J].北京林业大学学报,2008,30(2):22~30.
[24] 李 颖,张养贞,张树文.三江平原沼泽湿地景观格局变化及其生态效应[J].地理科学,2002,22(5):677~682.