Based on the observed annual runoff data of 5 hydrological stations in Tarim River headstreams areas from 1957 to 2008, the paper studied the annual trend, abrupt change, periodicity and the coming period trends by use of the nonparametric test, R/S analysis and wavelet analysis and so on. The results showed that: (1) Both Aksu river and Yarkand river of which the jump points happened at 1993 hold significant step change, but Hetian river expressed a slightly decreasing step trend and is not significant;(2)Aksu river holds a significant increasing trend but Yarkand river the trend is not, and based on the Hurst exponents(Aksu:0.777>0.5,Yarkand:0.485 7<0.5) of two the streams, the annual runoff of Aksu river will keep an increasing trend and Yarkand river will be in reverse in the coming period; Hetian river has a slightly decreasing trend and the Hurst exponent is 0.501 4, which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos, then it can not be taken a long-term predict .(3) The primary periods of Aksu river and Hetian river are 6a, 18a, 22a and 9a, 17a respectively, otherwise, Yarkant river is at 3a,9a,13a and 17a.
LING Hong-bo, XU Hai-liang, ZHANG Qing-qing, SHI Wei
. The Annual Runoff Variation Trends in the Three Headstreams of Tarim River[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2011
, 31(6)
: 728
-733
.
DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.06.728
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